scholarly journals The Spillover Effects on Strategic Interdependence Neighboring Countries: A Game Theory Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oyundelger Sharkhuu ◽  
Pu Yongjian ◽  
Batdelger Tsogt-Ochir ◽  
Tugs Sanjdorj
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
Short Run

The main aim of sustainable development is to ensure an intelligible and long-lasting balance between the economy, society, and the environment. Sustainable tourism could only be successful if the inter-relationships between all three dimensions are accepted. In the limited number of research analyses, the focus of the research is on competition between tourist countries and destinations. This study has used Game theory to analyze the competition applies time-series data in selected neighboring countries measure of a VAR-based spillover index, developed by [1] to investigate the time-varying relationship between tourism and Gross Domestic Product. Each country analyzed Vector Error Correction (VEC) and Granger analysis to explore the causal short and long-term tourism and use a sample that spans from 1997 to 2019. From the main results of Cholesky, the total spillover index is 59.0% between Russia and Mongolia which suggests a moderate interdependence among the four variables. Findings indicate that neither China nor Mongolia have a short-run influence on tourism development. China's inbound tourism is affected in the long run by Mongolia's inbound tourism but not vice versa can be explained by the fact that the number of tourists visiting Mongolia would include China in their travels.

scholarly journals Supply Response of Milk Producers to Economic and Non-Economic Factors in Swaziland

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Micah Bheki Masuku ◽  
Mlungisi C. Sukati ◽  
Jeremiah I Rugambisa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Milk Powder ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Milk Output ◽  
Short Run

Supply response indicates the output change due to the change in price and non-price factors. The main aim of this study was to analyse the supply response of milk producers to various economic and non-economic factors. The specific objectives were to determine the responsiveness of milk supply in Swaziland to price and its substitute price (milk powder) and to examine the responsiveness of milk producers to non-economic factors such as rainfall, technology and dairy cattle inventory. The study used time series data from 2010 to 2014 and each year was given in months in-order to have 60 data points. Several techniques relevant for analysing time series data were employed, which included testing for stationarity of the data, checking if the independent variables if are able to explain the dependent variable (cointegration), running the long-run regression, then dropping some of the residuals which were not significant, after which the Vector Error-Correction Model and the diagnostic tests were conducted. Such analysis included the formal test for stationarity. The Johansen cointegration test was used which provided evidence of cointegration between Milk Output and its determinants. The long-run regression results revealed that Milk Powder Output and Milk Powder Price are significant in determining milk response in the long-run in Swaziland with the elasticities of -0.48 and -0.92 respectively, while the short-run coefficients were-0.21 and -0.70 respectively. Both variable were significant at 1% in the short-run and only the Milk Output was significant at 5% (P>0.05) in the short-run. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) came out with the correct -0.129 implying that only 12.9% of the shocks will be adjusted back to the long-run path within a month. The study therefore, recommended that the Swaziland Government should promote local market share and purpose policies to decrease the country’s reliance to imported dairy products, which negatively affects economic development.

scholarly journals Microfinance Banks Dynamics Effect on Small-Scale Enterprise Development in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Adesola, Wasiu Adebisi ◽  
Ewa, Uket Eko ◽  
Arikpo, Oka Felix
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

This study examined the effect of Microfinance Banks on the development of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises in Nigeria. This study was specifically meant to assess the extent to which microfinance banks loans and advances, investments and deposit mobilization affect the productivity of SMEs in Nigeria. The study employed the ex-pose facto research design. Time series data were collected from the CBN statistical Bulletin and SMEDAN annual publications using the desk survey method. The data were analysed using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism. Result from the analyses revealed that Microfinance banks loans and advances and investments do not have any significant effect on SMEs’ productivity in Nigeria both in the long run and short run period. The study further reveals that microfinance banks’ deposit mobilization does not have any significant effect on SMEs’ productivity in Nigeria in the long run, however, within the short run period microfinance banks deposits mobilization has a significant effect on SMEs’ productivity. Based on these findings, it was recommended that MFBs should lighten the condition for lending and increase the duration of lending to their customers, spreading the repayment over a long period of time to assist SMEs meet their funding needs. Also, the Government and its institutions, including the Central Bank, should work in concert to promote the sector, as a means of mobilizing domestic savings, widening the financial system, promoting enterprises, creating employment and income and reducing poverty.

scholarly journals The causal and cointegration relationship between government revenue and government expenditure

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Kebitsamang Anne Sere ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Short Run

This study determines the causal relationship that exists between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. The study employed annual time series data from the year 1980 to 2015 taken from the South African Reserve Bank. The Johansen multivariate method was employed to test for co-integration and for causality the Vector Error Correction/Granger causality test was employed. The empirical results suggest that there is a long-run relation-ship between government revenue and government expenditure. The causality result suggests that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. Thus, policy makers in the short run should determine government revenue and government expenditure of South Africa independently when reducing the budget deficit.

scholarly journals The Dynamic of Macroeconomics Elements in Malaysia: Further Insight into Causality Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dayang Hummida Abang Abdul Rahman ◽  
Nuzaihan Majidi ◽  
Jati Kasuma ◽  
Yusman Yacob ◽  
Dayang Affizzah Awang Marikan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run

This paper intends to explore the causality effect between Growth Domestic Product (GDP), population and unemployment in Malaysia. Based on the observation of Malaysia’s historical data, there is a distinct movement in each of these individual macroeconomics components over the years. Past literature within the same area has illustrated various patterns on the possibility of a causal relationship that each variable has on one another. Several stages of analysis are conducted to verify the presence of causality effect from Malaysian economic perspective, which includes unit root test that employs the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) procedures, followed by Johansen and Juselius test of cointegration and Granger-causality test based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using E-views software. Each procedure is conducted using Malaysia’s time series data for each of the three elements from 1980 to 2013 obtained from Malaysia’s Department of Statistics. Our findings revealed that there is one cointegration detected for the tested variables; whereas the results indicate that population can Granger cause unemployment in the short run. Furthermore, it is found that unemployment solely bears the effect from short run adjustment to bring about the long run equilibrium within the tested framework. This study is important for the policy maker to understand the reason behind the causality effect that could jeopardize the rate of unemployment in Malaysia. As the attention is given specifically to three variables particularly GDP, population and unemployment, this study is aimed at broadening the prospect for further investigation within the same area of macroeconomics.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

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