scholarly journals Dampak Perubahan Kurs (Pass-Through Effect) terhadap Tujuh Kelompok Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Noer Azam Achsani ◽  
Herry Frenky Nababan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Interesting Discussion ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The impacts of exchange rate to an economy both domestically and internationally are an interesting discussion. One of the examples for discussion is exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). ERPT is defined as the rate of change of prices (domestic, imported or exported) as a result of change in exchange rate. Consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most frequent indicators used for measuring domestic price. This paper analyzes the impacts of exchange rate change (ERPT) to seven group of CPI in Indonesia. The Cholesky Decomposition is employed to identify structural shock of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) which then combined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for 48 time series units. The result shows that for the entire period there is an incomplete pass-through for the seven group of CPI. The largest effect occurs in the transportation and communication sector and food and beverages sector in which 35 percent of their changes in CPI are affected by change in exchange rate.

scholarly journals Dampak Perubahan Nilai Tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Konsumen Bahan Makanan di Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Siti Suarsih ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani ◽  
Nunung Nuryartono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Pass Through

Exchange Rate Change Effects on Indonesia’s Foodstuff Consumer Price IndexThe fluctuation in exchange rate Indonesia may have an impact on the price of imported goods both consumer goods (finished goods) and raw materials. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of foods categories and analyze the role of the exchange rate in explaining fluctuations in the CPI of food category in Indonesia. Econometric analysis using vector error correction model, indicates that the greatest degree of pass-through occurs in the consumer price index groups of milk and eggs. Contributions of exchange rate as the result of decomposition of forecasting error variance is largest in the meat category.Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Consumer Price Index of Foodstu; Vector Error Correction ModelAbstrakPerubahan nilai tukar dapat berdampak pada harga barang-barang yang diimpor baik barang konsumsi (barang jadi) maupun bahan baku. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak perubahan nilai tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) kelompok bahan makanan dan menganalisis peranan nilai tukar dalam menjelaskan fluktuasi IHK bahan makanan di Indonesia. Analisa ekonometri menggunakan vector error correction model, menunjukkan bahwa derajat pass-through terbesar terjadi pada kelompok indeks harga konsumen susu dan telor. Kontribusi nilai tukar hasil decomposition of forecasting error variance terbesar terjadi pada kelompok daging.

scholarly journals Exchange rate Pass-through in russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 21-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Ponomarev ◽  
P. Trunin ◽  
A. Ulyukayev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The article provides estimates of short-run and medium-run exchange rate pass-through in Russia during the period of 2000-2012 using vector error correction model. Estimates of asymmetry of exchange rate pass-through, its assessments in different sub-periods and exchange rate volatility effect are also presented.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, FEAR OF FLOATING, AND IMPLEMENTATION OF INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Agung Satryo ◽  
Lukytawati Anggraeni
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
Nominal Anchor ◽  
Fear Of Floating

This paper analyze the exchange rate pass-through and fear of floating behavior on 18 countries that adopting Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF). Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used: (1) to estimate the effect of exchange rate depreciation to inflation (passthrough); and (2) to examine the indication of fear of floating behavior. The result shows that passthrough effect has decreased in most countries after ITF where middle income countries have higher passthrough than high income countries. This effect did not disappear completely and still has a significant role to drive inflation. The interventions on exchange rate movement can be interpreted more as control of inflation than fear of floating. The implementation of ITF especially in middle income countries needs further to be reconsidered since it requires inflation as the only nominal anchor.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, FEAR OF FLOATING, AND IMPLEMENTATION OF INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Agung Satryo ◽  
Lukytawati Anggraeni
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
Nominal Anchor ◽  
Fear Of Floating

This paper analyze the exchange rate pass-through and fear of floating behavior on 18 countries that adopting Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF). Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used: (1) to estimate the effect of exchange rate depreciation to inflation (passthrough); and (2) to examine the indication of fear of floating behavior. The result shows that passthrough effect has decreased in most countries after ITF where middle income countries have higher passthrough than high income countries. This effect did not disappear completely and still has a significant role to drive inflation. The interventions on exchange rate movement can be interpreted more as control of inflation than fear of floating. The implementation of ITF especially in middle income countries needs further to be reconsidered since it requires inflation as the only nominal anchor.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass Through in a Small Open Economy: A case study of West African Monetary Zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Rahman olanrewaju Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The  study investigated the magnitude of exchange rate pass through to import prices and domestic prices    (consumer price index) in WAMZ economy using quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010 with the aids of Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling technique supported with Johansen co-integration approach cross country analysis comprising of Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra-Leone. The study discovered that transmission of exchange rate to import prices is more when compared with consumer price in the zone while the contributions of exchange rate to import price are not less 13 percent at average in entire zone. Consumer price index was explained by exchange rate pass through with an average of 26 percent in the zone where the pass through to consumer price is less than two percent in Ghanaian economy. The Taylor (2000) hypothesis was observed in the study where Ghana and Nigeria are the outlier economies while Nigeria established a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and exchange rate pass through to import prices.

Revisiting real exchange rate volatility: non-traded goods and cointegrated TFP shocks

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aydan Dogan ◽  
Timo Bettendorf
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

Abstract International real business cycle (IRBC) models predict a real exchange rate volatility that is much lower than the levels observed in the data. In this paper, we build a two-country IRBC model with both a traded and a non-traded goods sector, and calibrate it to UK-euro area (EA) data. We provide evidence on the existence of a cointegrating relationship between UK and EA traded sector total factor productivity (TFP) by estimating a vector error correction model (VECM). To account for this relationship, we incorporate non-stationary technology shocks in the traded sectors in our model, and show that then the model is able to match the observed volatility of the UK–EA real exchange rate. Our analysis points out that both the presence of non-traded sectors and non-stationary technology shocks are necessary to account for the observed volatility in the real exchange rate.

scholarly journals The Impact of Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 17/3/2015 on Exchange Rate: Analysis Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-141
Author(s):  
Muhamad Yudi Setiawan ◽  
Tanti Novianti ◽  
Mukhamad Najib
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The weakening of the Rupiah against the US dollar has encouraged Bank Indonesia to issued Bank Indonesia Regulation (Peraturan Bank Indonesia - PBI) No. 17/3/2015. The research aimed to analyze the factors that affected the Rupiah exchange rate, the effect of PBI No. 17/3/2015 on the movement of the Rupiah exchange rate, and the behavior of exchange rate movement to the shocks on the variables that influenced it. The research applied secondary data, namely monthly data from January 2008 to April 2019 taken from reliable sources such as National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), Bank Indonesia (BI), and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). It was explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The studied data were processed with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to identify long and short-term effects. The results of the long-term equation show that export-import has a negative effect on the exchange rate. Similarly, inflation has no significant effect on the exchange rate. Then, the money supply has a significantly negative effect on the exchange rate. However, the interest rate of Bank Indonesia positively affects the exchange rate. Next, the implementation of PBI No. 17/3/2015 has a significant and positive impact on the exchange rate. Last, the crisis condition does not affect the changes in exchange rates.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Jumlah Penghimpunan Zakat di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 199
Author(s):  
Sheema Haseena Armina
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Analysis Technique

Purpose this study analyzes the effect of the industrial production index, the dollar exchange rate, inflation and the BI 7DRR on the amount of zakat collection from January 2015 to December 2018to identify the potential of zakat to support alleviation in Indonesia. Methodology/Approach: this study uses a quantitative approach with a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) data analysis technique with time series data from Januari 2015 t0 December 2018. Findings: The results show that in short term causality, there is an effect between long-term and short-term between zakat as the dependent variable with inflation and the dollar exchange rate. However, there is no short-term causality effect between BI 7-DRR and IPI to the amount of zakat while the long-term causality effect, all independent variables have a significant effect to the dependent variable namely zakat. Implications: The integration of Islamic philanthropic institutions has the potential to channel aid and support to alleviate poverty. This study adds the IPI variable to interpret the GDP variable in analyzing its effect on zakat.

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