4094 Background: Nomograms have been widely and successfully used for numerous cancers to obtain reliable prognostic information for each individual patient.To date, however, no studies have conducted survival estimates using nomograms for esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (ESCC) in Chinese population.The purpose of this study is to develop a nomogram to predict the long-term survival probabilities in patients diagnosed with ESCC after radical esophagectomy. Methods: This study involves a dataset containing 1923 patients who underwent radical esophagectomy for ESCC at Zhejiang Cancer Hospital in Hangzhou, China. Among them, 1,578 patients with no missing data were used to build a prognostic nomogram based on Cox proportional hazard regression model. A multivariate survival analysis using Cox regression model was applied to identify significant variables with P-values <0.05. On the basis of the predictive model with the identified variables, a nomogram was constructed for predicting five-year and ten-year overall survival probabilities. The prediction model was internally validated using bootstrap resampling, assessing its optimism-corrected discrimination and calibration. Results: The median of overall survival times of 1578 ESCC patients was 35.6 months, and the 5-year and 10-year survival rate was 32% and 20%, respectively. The multivariate Cox model identified alcohol, tumor length, surgical approach, number of surgical removed lymph node, ratio of metastatic lymph nodes, region of lymph nodes dissection, depth of invasion, differentiation of tumor, postoperative complications as covariates significantly associated with survival. Across the 100 bootstrap replicates, the median optimism-corrected summary C-index for predicting survival was 0.713 (SE=0.011). Conclusions: A nomogram predicting 5- and 10-year overall survival after radical esophagectomy for ESCC in Chinese population was constructed and validated based on nine significant variables. The nomogram can be applied in daily clinical practice for individualized survival prediction of ESCC patients after potentially curative esophagectomy.
Comparison of long-term outcomes between radical esophagectomy and definitive chemoradiotherapy in patients with clinical T1bN0M0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
