Comments: Oil Demand Optimism

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (08) ◽  
pp. 8-8
Author(s):  
Pam Boschee
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Oil Demand

Forecasts for oil demand are looking up, according to OPEC and the International Energy Agency as of mid-July. Will the optimistic views prove to be on target? We have learned how the market can shift or wildly careen, both historically and in the very recent past. Looking at the forecasts, which reflect a consensus of sorts, is encouraging for producers. OPEC’s monthly report of 15 July projected global oil demand to reach nearly 100 million B/D next year, a level similar to pre-pandemic in 2019. The 2021 oil demand growth remains unchanged at 5.95 million B/D, or approximately 6.6%. Led by demand growth in the US, China, and India, a 3.4% increase is expected in 2022 to 99.86 million B/D and would average more than 100 million B/D in the second half of the year. “Solid expectations exist for global economic growth in 2022,” OPEC said. “These include improved containment of COVID-19, particularly in emerging and developing countries, which are forecast to spur oil demand to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2022.” If the actual recovery tracks with these predictions, OPEC can dial back further its record-level supply cuts made in 2020. The IEA points to the growth expected in global electricity demand as spurring fossil-fuel demand, including oil, coal, and natural gas. After falling by around 1% in 2020, electricity demand growth may approach 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. The Asia Pacific region will account for the majority of the increases. China, the world’s largest consumer of electricity, leads the tally, accounting for more than 50% of the 2022 growth. India, the third largest, will account for 9% of the global electricity growth. Renewables are expected to be able to serve around half of the projected growth in global demand in 2021 and 2022. IEA wrote, “Renewable electricity generation continues to grow strongly—but cannot keep up with increasing demand. After expanding by 7% in 2020, electricity generation from renewables is forecast to increase by 8% in 2021 and by more than 6% in 2022.” Fossil fuel-based electricity is set to cover 45% of additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022. After declining by 4.6% in 2020, coal-fired electricity generation will increase by nearly 5% in 2021, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. In 2022, it will grow another 3% and could reach an all-time high. Natural gas-generated electricity lags coal because it is less commonly used in the Asia Pacific and competes with renewables in the US and Europe. It is expected to increase globally by 1% in 2021 and by nearly 2% in 2022 after declining by 2% in 2020. The US Energy Information Administration published a global financial review last month of 91 oil and gas companies, most headquartered in the US, in the first quarter 2021. It indicated that companies are implementing their plans announced over the past year to reduce capital expenditures to pay down debt. Capital expenditure in 1Q2021 was reported as $48 billion, 28% lower than in 1Q2020 and the second- lowest amount for any quarter since 2016. Cash from operations in Q1 this year totaled $79 billion, 19% higher than in 1Q2020; about 76% of companies had positive free cash flow. Overall, the companies decreased debt by $16 billion in 1Q2021, and the long-term debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 54%.

Multi-Pollutant Removal System Performance: Based on Testing and Plant Operation Experience

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.-J. Hamel ◽  
Walter Jaeger ◽  
Volker Fattinger ◽  
Heinz Termuehlen
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Pollutant Removal ◽  
Clean Coal ◽  
The Us ◽  
Removal System

Since roughly 95 % of the fossil fuel reserves in the US are coal and only 5 % natural gas and crude oil, we need clean coal-fired power plants. Today, about 1400 pulverized-coal-fired power plant units are generating roughly 50 % of the US electric power.

Natural Gas Has Role in Decarbonizing the Australian Electricity Supply

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (07) ◽  
pp. 69-70
Author(s):  
Chris Carpenter
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Electricity Supply ◽  
Total System ◽  
Gamma Energy ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
Generation Capacity

This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 202210, “Future Roles for Natural Gas in Decarbonizing the Australian Electricity Supply Within the NEM: Total System Costs Are Key,” by Stephanie Byrom, University of Queensland; Geoffrey Bongers, Gamma Energy Technology; and Andy Boston, Red Vector, et al., prepared for the 2020 SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, originally scheduled to be held in Perth, Australia, 20–22 October. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Electricity systems around the world are changing, with the Paris Agreement of 2015 a catalyst for much current change. The Australian government ratified the agreement by committing to 26–28% emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2030. Reduction in emissions from electricity generation has become the focus of these targets. To decarbonize the grid to meet targets while building firm, dispatchable generation capacity to support the system, a new metric is required to measure success. The complete paper explores the outputs of the model of energy and grid services (MEGS), illustrating outcomes if a single technology group is favored. Introduction The majority of electricity in the Australian National Energy Market (NEM) is provided by synchronous thermal power generation, which also has delivered services required for grid stability such as inertia and frequency control. The NEM commenced operation in December 1998 and includes five regional market jurisdictions: Queensland, New South Wales (including the Australian Capital Territory), Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania. In 2020, the NEM incorporated approximately 40,000 km of transmission lines and cables, connecting approximately 57 GW of generation capacity to consumers. This thermal generation mostly has consisted of coal- and gas-based technologies. Electricity grids are also changing from largely centralized electricity generation systems to more decentralized ones and from unidirectional electricity flows to bidirectional flows as part of the effort to reduce emissions. However, with increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation, it is important to plan for and manage generation-asset investment to track the lowest possible total system cost and highest reliability path to a low-emissions future. A Competent, Diverse Grid A competent electricity grid is one that can keep the lights on, so to speak, within the legislated tolerance for outages and performance. A competent grid is adequate, reliable, secure, operable, and robust against externally driven disruptions. In practice, the reliability of the electricity grid often seems to be taken for granted; however, it is an essential element of the modern economy, and, with a changing grid, reliability is increasingly important. When a decision must be made to build or replace an individual power plant, stakeholders (individual investors) have traditionally considered the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the alternative generation options, which di-vides the total cost of an installation or plant by the kilowatt-hours it produces over its lifetime. However, metrics such as LCOE, based on grid-independent formulae to help power plant investors to maximize returns, are inappropriate for comparing technologies that deliver and demand a complex menu of services specific to the grid. A different metric is required to evaluate each technology’s contribution to the grid.

Opportunities for CO2 Capture and Storage in Iranian Electricity Generation

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farshid Zabihian ◽  
Alan S. Fung
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Co2 Capture ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Pure Oxygen ◽  
Co2 Capture And Storage ◽  
And Storage

CO2 capture and storage (CCS) systems are technologies that can be used to reduce CO2 emissions by different industries where combustion is part of the process. A major problem of CCS system utilization in electricity generation industry is their high efficiency penalty in power plants. For different types of power plants fueled by oil, natural gas and coal, there are three main techniques that can be applied: • CO2 capture after combustion (post-combustion); • CO2 capture after concentration of flue gas by using pure oxygen in boilers and furnaces (oxy-fuel power plant); • CO2 capture before combustion (pre-combustion). More than 90% of electricity generation in Iran is based on fossil fuel power plants. Worldwide, electricity generation is responsible for 54% of GHG emissions. Thus, it is vital to reduce CO2 emission in fossil fuel-fired power plants. In this paper, it is shown that, by applying CO2 capture systems in power generation industry, very low CO2 emission intensity is possible but the energy and economic penalties are substantial. The analyses showed that for different technologies efficiency penalty could be as high as 25% and cost of electricity might increase by more than 65%. Two scenarios for Iranian electricity generation sector were investigated in this paper: installing CCS in the existing power plants with current technologies and replacing existing power plants by natural gas combined cycle plants equipped with CO2 capture system. The results revealed that the GHG intensity can be reduced from 610 to 79 gCO2eq/kWh in the first scenario and to 54 gCO2eq/kWh in the second scenario.

scholarly journals Old King Coal

2002 ◽  
Vol 124 (08) ◽  
pp. 41-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Hutchinson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Plant Feeding ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gasification Plant ◽  
Energy Information

This article focuses on the US Energy Information Administration estimates that coal generates 34 percent of the world's electricity today and will still account for more than 30 percent in 2020. The backers of coal say that systems can be—and must be—developed to make coal more efficient to burn and less troublesome to the biosphere. The United States is also a supporter of the International Energy Agency and is one of the member countries that support IEA Coal Research, a program based in London. The plan for a gasification plant feeding a combined-cycle generating station is still in the demonstration stage in the United States. Although the process squeezes more efficiency out of coal and scores points for cleaner air and corporate goodwill, prospective buyers have yet to form a line around the block. New sources in Venezuela, which has South America’s mother lode of petroleum, have come onto the market, and competition is driving down coke prices.

Climate talks highlight shortcomings in global efforts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Us ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Trump Administration ◽  
Credibility Gap

Significance Washington has re-joined the Paris agreement and announced new climate commitments, but still faces a credibility gap. It must demonstrate by November’s COP26 summit, how it can meet its new goals. Impacts Private sector companies will face increasing pressure to set net-zero targets. The use of natural gas as a transition fossil fuel will face greater scrutiny as pressure for drastic climate action increases. Fossil fuel subsidy reform is likely to return to G20 priorities after having been neglected during the US Trump administration.

Performance Influences of Hydrogen Enriched Fuel on Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines in Combined Cycle Power Plants

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Georg Seydel
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel Consumption ◽  
High Flexibility

In order to meet the ambitious reduction targets for future CO2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption, the extension of renewable power systems is mandatory. One main issue is the fluctuating and unpredictable availability of renewable energy. With a higher portion of renewable energy, a secure electricity supply becomes more challenging. On days with high electricity demand but low availability of renewable energy, fossil back up power plants with high flexibility and efficiency are needed. Most applicable for this requirements are combined cycle power plants, which provide both high flexibility and efficiency. On the other hand potential renewable energy is wasted during days with low electricity demand but high available renewable energy, because electricity cannot be stored yet economically in such vast amounts. In order to use the available renewable energy more efficiently, hydrogen could be produced via electrolysis during phases of surplus available renewable energy. The hydrogen serves as a high density energy storage, which can be used as an alternative fuel in combined cycle power plants for a highly efficient reconversion into electricity if necessary. In this study it is analyzed how the usage of hydrogen as the burner fuel will influence the performance of combined cycle power plants. Therefore the on- and off-design performance of a state of the art combined cycle power plant will be calculated at different ratios of hydrogen mixtures with natural gas. The thermodynamic calculations are made with the performance software GTlab of the German Aerospace Center. Furthermore the natural gas and CO2 savings for different hydrogen ratios will be quantified. The results show that the usage of hydrogen enriched fuel increases the combined cycle efficiency and power output. Accordingly a considerable reduction in CO2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption is possible.

scholarly journals Using size distribution analysis to forecast natural gas resources in Asia Pacific

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 722
Author(s):  
Roberto Aguilera ◽  
Ronald Ripple
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Distribution Analysis ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Natural Gas Production ◽  
Shape Distribution ◽  
Low Carbon Economy ◽  
Gas Market

Increasing energy consumption in the Asia Pacific region will largely be met by fossil fuel resources. Natural gas production in the region presently ranks behind that of oil and coal; however, the abundance of natural gas could lead to a significant gas market share increase in the energy mix. The purpose of this extended abstract is to estimate the total endowment of conventional natural gas in Asia Pacific. This is carried out with a variable shape distribution (VSD) model, which forecasts volumes in provinces that have not been previously evaluated. The endowment is then distributed across countries to show where volumes are most likely to be found. A breakdown between offshore versus onshore resources is also estimated. The results of the analysis show that there is a significant natural gas endowment in the region. The estimated distribution across countries and onshore/offshore areas provides insight into the relative economics of natural gas production in the region, as well as a basis for potential investment decisions. With appropriate energy policies and improvements in technology, it may be possible to tap the vast natural gas potential in the Asia Pacific. Considering natural gas may be the most abundant, inexpensive, and clean fossil fuel, the outcome would be increased energy security and a low carbon economy.

scholarly journals Küresel Enerji Jeopolitiğinde Türkiye: Fırsatlar ve Riskler / The Position of Turkey in Global Energy Geopolitics: Opportunities and Risks

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 948
Author(s):  
Muhammed Oral ◽  
Ünal Özdemir
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
British Petroleum ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas

<p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>Turkey has various social, economic, cultural and geostrategic advantages and opportunities thanks to its location. However, it is also located between the Middle East, Balkans, and Caucasus, which are among the most depraved and unstable places in the world. This brings geopolitical risks to Turkey.</p><p>With respect to energy geography, Turkey draws attention both as a center and as a natural route country that connects supply and demand territories. More than 70% of the world’s oil and natural gas reserves and about 30% of global consumption currently take place in Europe. Accordingly, Turkey is a terminal country with its energy demand security for resource territories and with its energy supply security for supply territories.</p><p>The purpose of this study is to discuss the roles of Turkey with its strategic location in the energy geopolitics centered on oil and natural gas. The study uses the data provided by organizations that engage in significant international and national activities in the industry such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), British Petroleum (BP), World Energy Council (WEC), and the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Thus, this study uses a quantitative research method through the collection and analysis of secondary data. </p><p><strong>Öz</strong></p><p>Türkiye konum itibariyle sosyal, ekonomik, kültürel ve jeostratejik açıdan çeşitli avantajlara/fırsatlara sahiptir. Ancak söz konusu coğrafya, aynı zamanda dünyanın en buhranlı, istikrarsız mekânlarından olan Orta Doğu, Balkanlar ve Kafkaslar bölgesinde yer almaktadır. Bu durum Türkiye için jeopolitik riskleri de beraberinde getirmektedir.</p><p>Enerji Coğrafyası özelinde ise Türkiye, bir merkez ve arz-talep coğrafyalarını birleştiren doğal bir güzergâh ülkesi olarak dikkat çekmektedir. Mevcut durum itibariyle dünya petrol ve doğal gaz rezervlerinin %70’ten fazlası ve küresel tüketimin yaklaşık %30’u Avrupa tüketim coğrafyasında gerçekleşmektedir. Buna göre Türkiye, kaynak coğrafyaları için enerji talep güvenliği, arz coğrafyaları için de enerji arz güvenliği yönüyle terminal bir ülkedir.</p><p>Bu çalışmanın amacı, stratejik bir noktada konumlanan Türkiye’nin petrol ve doğal gaz eksenli oluşan enerji jeopolitiğinde ne gibi rollere sahip olduğunu tartışmaktır. Araştırmada; IEA, EIA, BP, WEC, ETKB gibi sektörde uluslararası ve ulusal ölçekte önemli çalışmalar yürüten kuruluşların verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Dolayısıyla araştırmada ikincil verilerin elde edilmesi ve değerlendirilmesi çerçevesinde nicel metot uygulanmıştır.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of Potential Sites for Harnessing Tidal Energy around Coastal Area of Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 225 ◽  
pp. 06015
Author(s):  
Nazani Nazri ◽  
Shahrani Anuar ◽  
Firdaus Basrawi ◽  
Ahmmad Shukrie ◽  
Siti Aishah
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Tidal Energy ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Location Identification ◽  
Suitable Location ◽  
Mode Generation

This paper present the potential sites around coastal area of Malaysia for electricity generation by harnessing tidal energy. As the electricity demand increase over the year and generating electricity by using fossil fuel caused the increase number in CO2 emission, thus renewable energy become one of the solution for alternating energy for electricity. There are a few of identified locations along Malaysia’s coastal area that have potential for tidal energy implementation. The approaching for harnessing tidal energy are by using tidal barrage approach which are consist three types of mode generation ebb-mode, flood-mode and double-mode. The output generations are calculated by identify the size of basin at identified locations. For suitable location identification is by using geographical map and bathymetry map. At the end, the identified location that suitable for harnessing tidal energy are Pulau Langkawi, Pulau Pinang, Lumut, Miri, Kota Kinabalu, Kudat, Lahad Datu, Tawau and Labuan.

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