An Integrated Workflow for Reserves Evaluation in the U.S. Permian Basin Based on SPEE Monograph 3

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyang Xia ◽  
Eric Nelson ◽  
Dan Olds ◽  
Larry Connor ◽  
He Zhang

Abstract In 2011, the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE) published Monograph 3 as an industry guideline for reserves evaluation of unconventionals, especially for probabilistic approaches. This paper illustrates the workflow recommended by Monograph 3. The authors also point out some dilemmas one may encounter when applying the guidelines. Finally, the authors suggest remedies to mitigate limitations and improve the utility of the approach. This case study includes about 300 producing shale wells in the Permian Basin. Referring to Monograph 3, analogous wells were identified based on location, geology, drilling-and-completion (D&C) technology; Technically Recoverable Resources (TRRs) of these analogous wells were then evaluated by Decline Curve Analysis (DCA). Next, five type-wells were developed with different statistical characteristics. Lastly, a number of drilling opportunities were identified and, consequently, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to develop a statistical distribution for undeveloped locations in each type-well area. The authors demonstrated the use of probit plots and demonstrated the binning strategy, which could best represent the study area. The authors tuned the binning strategy based on multiple yardsticks, including median values of normalized TRRs per lateral length, slopes of the distribution lines in lognormal plots, ratios of P10 over P90, and well counts in each type-well category in addition to other variables. The binning trials were based on different geographic areas, producing reservoirs, and operators, and included the relatively new concept of a "learning curve" introduced by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2018 Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS). To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper represents the first published case study to factor in the "learning curves" method. This paper automated the illustrated workflow through coded database queries or manipulation, which resulted in high efficiencies for multiple trials on binning strategy. The demonstrated case study illustrates valid decision-making processes based on data analytics. The case study further identifies methods to eliminate bias, and present independent objective reserves evaluations. Most of the challenges and situations herein are not fully addressed in Monograph 3 and are not documented in the regulations of the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) or in the PRMS guidelines. While there may be differing approaches, and some analysts may prefer alternate methods, the authors believe that the items presented herein will benefit many who are starting to incorporate Monograph 3 in their work process. The authors hope that this paper will encourage additional discussion in our industry.

1992 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Block

Abstract: This paper attempts to unravel the very complex issue of balance first by addressing its historical and theoretical contexts. Then the coverage of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is used as a case study. Résumé: Dans cet article l'auteur s'applique à décortiquer la complexité de la controverse notion de "balance'' dans la couverture médiatique. Il la place d'abord dans son contexte historique et théorique. Il s'appuie, ensuite, comme exemple, sur le suivi que les médias ont fait autour des pourparlers et de l'entente du libre-échange entre le Canada et les États-Unis.


2021 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-056145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ollie Ganz ◽  
Mary Hrywna ◽  
Kevin R J Schroth ◽  
Cristine D Delnevo

In 2009, the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (TCA) granted the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory authority over tobacco products, although initially this only included cigarettes, smokeless tobacco and roll-your-own tobacco. In 2016, the deeming rule extended regulatory authority to include all tobacco products, including cigars. The deeming rule prohibited the introduction of new tobacco products into the marketplace without proper marketing authorisation and laid out pathways for tobacco companies to follow. The deeming rule should have frozen the cigar marketplace in 2016. In this paper, we describe how the cigarillo marketplace, nevertheless, continues to diversify with new brands, flavors, styles and packaging sizes entering the market regularly. As an example, we highlight recent promotional efforts by Swedish Match North America (Swedish Match) for their popular cigarillo brands, including White Owl, Night Owl and Garcia y Vega’s Game brand. We argue that ambiguities in the TCA make it unclear whether Swedish Match’s seemingly new cigarillos fit the definition of new tobacco products and, if so, whether they are on the market legally. Swedish Match and other cigarillo companies may be taking advantage of these ambiguities to promote a variety of cigarillo flavors and styles in innovative ways. Given that cigars are combustible tobacco products that pose many of the same risks as cigarettes, this business practice raises significant concerns regarding the protection of public health, particularly among young people.


JOM ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 823-832 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardo R. F. Alvear Flores ◽  
Stanko Nikolic ◽  
Phillip J. Mackey
Keyword(s):  

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5592
Author(s):  
Ludovic-Alexandre Vidal ◽  
Franck Marle ◽  
Mathieu Dernis

International companies are more and more seeking to act proactively by proposing In-Country Value (ICV) strategies to create sustainable local values in the host countries in which they carry out projects. Still, such sustainable local values are complex to identify because they are often indirectly related to their own value chains, project activities, and outcomes. There are, therefore, both theoretical and industrial needs to model and estimate sustainable values brought by complex projects in host countries, considering direct and indirect effects. In this paper, a systems thinking-based approach combined with a frequency analysis first permitted to build up a model of the sustainable values created by the project in a host country. Then, after underlining the complexity of such a model, a Domain Mapping Matrix (DMM) approach was proposed to help build a process to estimate project impacts in terms of ICV creation. An application to a case study built up with an industrial practitioner (an oil and gas company) permitted to test and validate the overall model and approach. It notably showed how such a model permitted to facilitate discussions among stakeholders and laid the foundations of ICV creation-oriented decision-making processes.


Author(s):  
Robert Procter ◽  
Miguel Arana-Catania ◽  
Felix-Anselm van Lier ◽  
Nataliya Tkachenko ◽  
Yulan He ◽  
...  

The development of democratic systems is a crucial task as confirmed by its selection as one of the Millennium Sustainable Development Goals by the United Nations. In this article, we report on the progress of a project that aims to address barriers, one of which is information overload, to achieving effective direct citizen participation in democratic decision-making processes. The main objectives are to explore if the application of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning can improve citizens? experience of digital citizen participation platforms. Taking as a case study the ?Decide Madrid? Consul platform, which enables citizens to post proposals for policies they would like to see adopted by the city council, we used NLP and machine learning to provide new ways to (a) suggest to citizens proposals they might wish to support; (b) group citizens by interests so that they can more easily interact with each other; (c) summarise comments posted in response to proposals; (d) assist citizens in aggregating and developing proposals. Evaluation of the results confirms that NLP and machine learning have a role to play in addressing some of the barriers users of platforms such as Consul currently experience.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document