The Impact of Frailty On Admission To Home Care Services And Nursing Homes: Eight-Year Follow-Up Of A Community-Dwelling, Elderly, Spanish Cohort
Abstract Background The aim of this study is to identify the factors that anticipate the future inclusion of community-dwelling individuals aged ≥ 70 years in home care programmes (HC) or nursing homes (NH) and to develop the corresponding prediction models. Methods Study design: Prospective, multicentre, cohort study in 23 primary health care centres located in Catalonia, Spain, with an eight-year follow-up (2005-2013). Participants: the cohort was made up of 616 individuals. Data collection: Baseline interview included a multidimensional assessment carried out by primary health care professionals. Outcome variables were collected during follow-up by consulting electronic health care records, telephone contacts, and the Central Registry of Catalonia for mortality. Statistical analysis: A prognostic index for HC and NH at eight years was estimated for each patient. Death prior to these events was considered as a competing risk event, and Fine–Gray regression models were used. The internal validity of the predictive models was tested for 150 bootstrap re-samples.Results At baseline, mean age was 76.4 years, 55.5% were women, and 22% lived alone. During follow-up, 19.2% entered an HC program, 8.2% a NH, and 15.4% died without presenting an event. Of those who entered a NH, 31.5% had previously been in an HC program. Multivariate competitive risk models for HC and NH showed that the risk of HC entry was associated with older age, dependence on the Instrumental Activities of the Daily Living, and slow gait measured by Timed-up-and-go test. An increased risk of being admitted to a NH was associated with older age, dependence on the Instrumental Activities of the Daily Living, augmented number of prescriptions, and the presence of social risk. Conclusions Prognostic models based on comprehensive geriatric assessments can predict the need for the commencement of HC and NH admission in community-dwelling older adults. Our findings underline the necessity to measure functional capacity, mobility, number of prescriptions, and social aspects of the elderly in the primary healthcare centres. In such a setting they can be offered longitudinal holistic assessments so as to benefit from preventive actions in order to remain independent in the community for as long as possible.