scholarly journals Global Burden of Female Breast Cancer: Age-period-cohort Analysis of Incidence Trends from 1990 to 2019 and Forecasts for 2035

Author(s):  
Yizhen Li ◽  
Jinxin Zheng ◽  
Yujiao Deng ◽  
Xinyue Deng ◽  
Weiyang Lou ◽  
...  

Abstract Background This study aimed to describe the latest epidemiology of female breast cancer globally, analyze the change pattern of the incidence rates and the disease’s association with age, period, and birth cohort, and subsequently present a forecast of breast cancer incidence.Methods Data for analysis were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and World Population Prospects 2019 revision by the United Nations (UN). We described the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) from 1990 to 2019 and then calculated the relative risks of period and cohort using an age-period-cohort model, and predicted the trends of ASIRs to 2035.Results In 2019, the global incidence of breast cancer in women increased to 1,977,212 (95% uncertainty interval = 1 807 615 to 2 145 215), with an ASIR of 45.86 (41.91 to 49.76) per 100 000 persons. Among the six selected countries facing burdensome ASIRs, only the USA showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019, whereas the others showed an increasing or stable trend. The overall net drift was similar in Japan (1.78%), India (1.66%), and Russia (1.27%), reflecting increasing morbidity from 1990 to 2019. The increase in morbidity was particularly striking in China (2.60%) and not significant in Germany (0.42%). The ASIRs were predicted to continue to increase globally, from 45.26 in 2010 to 47.36 in 2035. In most countries and regions, the age specific incidence rate is the highest in those aged over 70 years and will increase in all age groups until 2035. In high-income regions, the age specific incidence rates are expected to decline in women aged over 50 years. Conclusions The global burden of female breast cancer is becoming more serious, especially in developing countries. Raising awareness of the risk factors and prevention strategies for female breast cancer is necessary to reduce future burden.

2004 ◽  
Vol 57 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 467-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Sipetic ◽  
Vesna Petrovic ◽  
Zorica Milic ◽  
Hristina Vlajinac

Introduction Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer in women, the second leading cause of cancer death, and the third most common cancer overall, throughout the world. In 1996, 910.000 new cases were diagnosed worldwide (about 9% of all new cases). Over 50% of breast cancer incidence occurred in the developed world. The aims of this study were to study breast cancer incidence during 1991-2000 in the region of Branicevo and to analyze differences in incidence rate for breast cancer in two periods of time 1991-1991 and 1996-2000. Material and methods This was a descriptive study. Routine national incidence data were used from the Republic Statistical Office. The analysis was restricted to the region of Branicevo. Age adjustment of annual incidence rates was carried out using five-year intervals and the distribution of the World population by Sega as the standard. Results A total of 542 women affected with breast cancer were evidenced in the Region of Branicevo during the period 1991- 2000, accounting for 25.3% of all malignant cases. Over the studied ten-year period the average standardized incidence rate (1:100,000) for breast cancer was 27.4. Based on the average age-specific incidence rates (1:100,000) female breast cancer was least frequently evidenced in women up to 34 years of age, while it was most frequent in groups aged 45 - 49 and 70 - 74 years. Over the period 1991-1995, female breast cancer accounted for 32.0% and in the period 1996-2000 for 22.2% of all mlignancies, with the average standardized incidence rates (1:100,000) being 22.5% and 32.4%, respectively. Discussion The average standardized incidence rate (1:100,000) for breast cancer was 27.4, which is similar to the rates evidenced in Eastern European countries, such as Poland (38.7), Slovakia (34.5), Hungary (29.6), Romania (31.1), Belarus (24.7) and Russia (40.6). Increase of breast cancer incidence rate, evidenced in the Region of Branicevo, is also evidenced in most countries with previously low incidence rates. Increase of breast cancer incidence rate is also detected in our neighboring countries, Bulgaria and Slovenia. Conclusions An increasing trend of breast cancer incidence rate was evidenced in the Region of Branicevo over the period 1991 - 2000, partially due to well kept registries and partially due to actual increase in the number of patients affected with malignant diseases.


2012 ◽  
Vol 132 (8) ◽  
pp. 1918-1926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Ly ◽  
David Forman ◽  
Jacques Ferlay ◽  
Louise A. Brinton ◽  
Michael B. Cook

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Awatef Ahmed Ben Ramadan ◽  
Jeannette Jackson-Thompson ◽  
Chester Lee Schmaltz

Objectives: To measure and interactively visualize female breast cancer (FBC) incidence rates in Missouri by age, race, stage and grade, and senate district of residence at diagnosis from 2008 to 2012.Methods: An observational epidemiological study. The FBC cases in counties split by senate districts were geocoded. Population database was created. A database was created within SEER*Stat. The incidence rates and the 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were age standardized using US 2000 Standard Population. The Census Bureau’s Cartographic Boundary Files were used to create maps showing Missouri senate districts. Incidence results were loaded along with the maps into InstantAtlas™ software to produce interactive reports.Results: Cancer profiles were created for all 34 Missouri senate districts. An area profile and a double map that included interactive maps, graphs, and tables for the 34 Missouri senate districts were built.Conclusion: The results may provide an estimation of social inequality within the state and could provide clues about the impact of level of coverage and accessibility to screening and health care services on disease prevention and early diagnosis.Key Words: Female Breast Cancer, Incidence, Interactive Mapping, Missouri, Senate Districts. 


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-87
Author(s):  
Muzahem Al-Hashimi ◽  
Edrees M. Nori Mahmood

The spatial statistical analysis of breast cancer incidences across Iraq has not been explored in Iraq. This paper aimed to explore the spatial pattern and risk clusters of female breast cancer incidence from 2000 to 2015 in Iraq (except the Kurdish region). To enhance statistical stability and to access the changes over time, we split the data according to the geographical district into three periods (2000-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2015). The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated using the world standard population. Having obtained estimates ASRs, the global index of spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s  statistic) was used to assess spatial dependence across districts for ASRs. Anselin local Moran’s  statistic was used to identify spatial outliers. Additionally, we used Getis-Ord  statistic to detect hotspots and coldspots over entire Iraq that represent clusters of districts with significantly high or low ASRs. A total of 44,496 cases were reported in 2000-2015 in Iraq, with an ASR of incidence of (32.81/100,000). The ASR incidence of breast cancer showed a significant average percentage change of 5.40% from 2002 to 2015. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed insignificant positive spatial autocorrelation in 2000-2004, and significant positive spatial autocorrelation in 2005-2009, and in 2010-2015. This study identified four districts as high-risk areas for breast cancer during the two periods 2005-2009 and 2010-2015, including Al-Karkh, Al-Adhamia, Al-Rissafa, and Al-Sadir. This information can assist the allocation of health care resources and expand cancer prevention efforts.


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