Estimating Cardiovascular Health Gains From Eradicating Indoor Cold in Australia

Background Exposure to cold indoor temperature (<18 degrees Celsius) increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and has been identified by the WHO as a source of unhealthy housing. While warming homes has the potential to reduce CVD risk, the reduction in disease burden is not known. We simulated the population health gains from reduced CVD burden if all homes in Australia were adequately warm. Methods The health effect of eradicating cold housing through reductions in CVD was simulated using proportional multistate lifetable model. The model sourced CVD burden and epidemiological data from Australian and Global Burden of Disease studies. The prevalence of cold housing in Australia was estimated from the Australian Housing Conditions Survey. The effect of cold indoor temperature on blood pressure (and in turn stroke and coronary heart disease) was estimated from published research. Results Eradication of exposure to indoor cold could achieve a gain of undiscounted one and a half weeks of additional health life per person alive in 2016 (baseyear) in cold housing through CVD alone. This equates to 0.447 (uncertainty interval: 0.064, 1.34; 3% discount rate) HALYs per 1,000 persons over remainder of their lives through CVD reduction. One-fifth of the total health gains are achievable between 2016 and 2035. Although seemingly modest, the gains outperform currently recommended CVD interventions including dietary advice for adults (0.017 per 1000 people, UI: 0.01, 0.027), lifestyle program for adults (0.024, UI: 0.01, 0.027) and Community Heart Health Program (0.141, UI: 0.071, 0.221). Conclusion Cardiovascular health gains achievable through eradication of cold housing are comparable with lifestyle and dietary interventions. The benefits of housing improvement are also substantial in other social domains (comfort, heating bills and energy efficiency).

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Psoriasis: Results and Insights From the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Background: Psoriasis is a common, chronic, inflammatory, debilitating, systemic disease with a great impact on healthcare systems worldwide. As targeted therapies have transformed the therapeutic landscape, updated estimates of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) imposed by psoriasis are necessary in order to evaluate the effects of past health care policies and to orient and inform new national and international healthcare strategies.Methods: Data were extracted from the GBD 2019 study, which collates a systematic review of relevant scientific literature, national surveys, claims data, and primary care sources on the prevalence of psoriasis. Prevalence data were combined with disability weight (DW) to yield years lived with disability (YLDs). Measures of burden at global, regional, and national levels were generated for incidence, prevalence, and YLDs, due to psoriatic disease. All measures were reported as absolute numbers, percentages, and crude and age-adjusted rates per 100,000 persons. In addition, psoriasis burden was assessed by socio-demographic index (SDI).Findings: According to the GBD 2019 methodology, there were 4,622,594 (95% uncertainty interval or UI 4,458,904–4,780,771) incident cases of psoriasis worldwide in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was 57.8 (95% UI 55.8–59.7) per 100,000 people. With respect to 1990, this corresponded to a decrease of 20.0% (95% UI −20.2 to −19.8). By sex, the age-standardized incidence rate was similar between men [57.8 (95% UI 55.8–59.8) per 100,000 people] and women [(57.8 (95% UI 55.8–59.7) per 100,000 people]. With respect to 1990, this corresponded to a decrease by 19.5% (95% UI −19.8 to −19.2) and by 20.4% (95% UI −20.7 to −20.2) for men and women, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 persons was found to vary widely across geographic locations. Regionally, high-income countries and territories had the highest age-standardized incidence rate of psoriasis [112.6 (95% UI 108.9–116.1)], followed by high-middle SDI countries [69.4 (95% UI 67.1–71.9)], while low SDI countries reported the lowest rate [38.1 (95% UI 36.8–39.5)]. Similar trends were detected for prevalence and YLDs.Conclusion: In general, psoriasis burden is greatest in the age group of 60–69 years, with a relatively similar burden among men and women. The burden is disproportionately greater in high-income and high SDI index countries of North America and Europe. With advances in psoriasis therapeutics, objective evaluation of psoriasis disease burden is critical to track the progress at the population level.

Characterizing Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality Attributable to Airborne Environmental Carcinogens

Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer is the leading cause of cancer death globally, but trends in TBL mortality attributable to tobacco, ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP), and household air pollution (HAP) were unequally distributed within global population subgroups over the last three decades. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study to quantify the impact of sex, time, sociodemographic development index (SDI), and age for each exposure from 1990–2019. During that interval, tobacco dominated the TBL cancer mortality landscape, with its minimum global age-adjusted death rate of 16.71 deaths/100,000 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 15.27–18.13) outstripping maximums of 3.85 deaths/100,000 (UI: 2.82–4.83) and 2.54 deaths/100,000 (UI: 1.69–3.54) for APMP and HAP, respectively. In 2019, tobacco male TBL death rates exceeded female rates by a factor of 4.4:1. Ratios of 1.9:1 for APMP and 2.1:1 for HAP were seen. Our analysis indicates that both-sex middle SDI and female low, low-middle, and high-middle SDI populations are suffering increasing tobacco TBL burden. Efforts producing successful global reductions in HAP-associated TBL mortality should continue, with attention to low SDI female death rate increases. Finally, except for high SDI populations, global APMP-attributable TBL cancer burden is increasing and represents a major health concern.

Development and Application of a Mechanistic Cooling and Freezing Model of the Spin Freezing Step within the Framework of Continuous Freeze-Drying

During the spin freezing step of a recently developed continuous spin freeze-drying technology, glass vials are rapidly spun along their longitudinal axis. The aqueous drug formulation subsequently spreads over the inner vial wall, while a cold gas flow is used for cooling and freezing the product. In this work, a mechanistic model was developed describing the energy transfer during each phase of spin freezing in order to predict the vial and product temperature change over time. The uncertainty in the model input parameters was included via uncertainty analysis, while global sensitivity analysis was used to assign the uncertainty in the model output to the different sources of uncertainty in the model input. The model was verified, and the prediction interval corresponded to the vial temperature profiles obtained from experimental data, within the limits of the uncertainty interval. The uncertainty in the model prediction was mainly explained (>96% of uncertainty) by the uncertainty in the heat transfer coefficient, the gas temperature measurement, and the equilibrium temperature. The developed model was also applied in order to set and control a desired vial temperature profile during spin freezing. Applying this model in-line to a continuous freeze-drying process may alleviate some of the disadvantages related to batch freeze-drying, where control over the freezing step is generally poor.

Global Burden and Inequality of Dental Caries, 1990 to 2019

Previous studies on the global burden of caries primarily focused on simple descriptive statistics. We aimed to characterize the burden, trends, and inequalities of untreated caries of permanent and deciduous teeth from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels through an array of analytic approaches. Estimates of caries burden were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Decomposition analysis was performed to examine the contribution of demographic and epidemiologic factors to the evolving number of prevalent caries cases. In portfolio analysis, the caries epidemiologic profile of each country was categorized by terciles of age-standardized prevalence in 2019 and average annual percentage change from 1990 to 2019. Sociodemographic attribution analysis was performed to reveal the scale of inequality in burden of caries. Age-standardized prevalence of caries in permanent and deciduous teeth decreased 3.6% (95% uncertainty interval, 2.6% to 4.5%) and 3.0% (1.3% to 4.9%), respectively. Population growth was the key driver of the changes in the number of caries cases, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (percentage contribution: 126.6%, permanent teeth; 103.0%, deciduous teeth). Caries prevalence in the permanent dentition was lower in more developed countries, whereas a reverse trend was noted in the deciduous dentition, except for the highest sociodemographic quintile where caries prevalence was the lowest. Globally, 64.6 million (95% CI, 64.4 to 64.9 million) and 62.9 million (62.8 to 63.1 million) prevalent cases of caries in permanent and deciduous teeth were attributable to sociodemographic inequality in 2019. This amounted to 3.2% (3.2% to 3.2%) and 12.1% (12.1% to 12.1%) of the global number of prevalent cases of caries in permanent and deciduous teeth. Burden of dental caries remains a global public health challenge. A systemwide reform of the global oral health care system is needed to tackle the causes of the burden and inequality of dental caries.

Targeting screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection towards asylum seekers from high-incidence countries – a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Background Enhancing tuberculosis (TB) prevention and care in a post-COVID-19-pandemic phase will be essential to ensure progress towards global TB elimination. In low-burden countries, asylum seekers constitute an important high-risk group. TB frequently arises post-immigration due to the reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI). Upon-entry screening for LTBI and TB preventive treatment (TPT) are considered worthwhile if targeted to asylum seekers from high-incidence countries who usually present with higher rates of LTBI. However, there is insufficient knowledge about optimal incidence thresholds above which introduction could be cost-effective. We aimed to estimate, among asylum seekers in Germany, the health impact and costs of upon-entry LTBI screening/TPT introduced at different thresholds of country-of-origin TB incidence. Methods We sampled hypothetical cohorts of 30–45 thousand asylum seekers aged 15 to 34 years expected to arrive in Germany in 2022 from cohorts of first-time applicants observed in 2017–2019. We modelled LTBI prevalence as a function of country-of-origin TB incidence fitted to data from observational studies. We then used a probabilistic decision-analytic model to estimate health-system costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) under interferon gamma release assay (IGRA)-based screening for LTBI and rifampicin-based TPT (daily, 4 months). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for scenarios of introducing LTBI screening/TPT at different incidence thresholds. Results We estimated that among 15- to 34-year-old asylum seekers arriving in Germany in 2022, 17.5% (95% uncertainty interval: 14.2–21.6%) will be latently infected. Introducing LTBI screening/TPT above 250 per 100,000 country-of-origin TB incidence would gain 7.3 (2.7–14.8) QALYs at a cost of €51,000 (€18,000–€114,100) per QALY. Lowering the threshold to ≥200 would cost an incremental €53,300 (€19,100–€122,500) per additional QALY gained relative to the ≥250 threshold scenario; ICERs for the ≥150 and ≥ 100 thresholds were €55,900 (€20,200–€128,200) and €62,000 (€23,200–€142,000), respectively, using the next higher threshold as a reference, and considerably higher at thresholds below 100. Conclusions LTBI screening and TPT among 15- to 34-year-old asylum seekers arriving in Germany could produce health benefits at reasonable additional cost (with respect to international benchmarks) if introduced at incidence thresholds ≥100. Empirical trials are needed to investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of this approach.

Global Burden of Female Breast Cancer: Age-period-cohort Analysis of Incidence Trends from 1990 to 2019 and Forecasts for 2035

Background This study aimed to describe the latest epidemiology of female breast cancer globally, analyze the change pattern of the incidence rates and the disease’s association with age, period, and birth cohort, and subsequently present a forecast of breast cancer incidence.Methods Data for analysis were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and World Population Prospects 2019 revision by the United Nations (UN). We described the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) from 1990 to 2019 and then calculated the relative risks of period and cohort using an age-period-cohort model, and predicted the trends of ASIRs to 2035.Results In 2019, the global incidence of breast cancer in women increased to 1,977,212 (95% uncertainty interval = 1 807 615 to 2 145 215), with an ASIR of 45.86 (41.91 to 49.76) per 100 000 persons. Among the six selected countries facing burdensome ASIRs, only the USA showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019, whereas the others showed an increasing or stable trend. The overall net drift was similar in Japan (1.78%), India (1.66%), and Russia (1.27%), reflecting increasing morbidity from 1990 to 2019. The increase in morbidity was particularly striking in China (2.60%) and not significant in Germany (0.42%). The ASIRs were predicted to continue to increase globally, from 45.26 in 2010 to 47.36 in 2035. In most countries and regions, the age specific incidence rate is the highest in those aged over 70 years and will increase in all age groups until 2035. In high-income regions, the age specific incidence rates are expected to decline in women aged over 50 years. Conclusions The global burden of female breast cancer is becoming more serious, especially in developing countries. Raising awareness of the risk factors and prevention strategies for female breast cancer is necessary to reduce future burden.

Mortality from snakebite envenomation: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Venomous snakebite is an important cause of preventable death. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal to halve snakebite mortality by 2030. We used verbal autopsy and vital registration data to model the proportion of venomous animal deaths due to snakes by location, age, year, and sex, and applied these proportions to venomous animal contact mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. In 2019, 63,400 people (95% uncertainty interval 38,900–78,600) died globally from snakebites, which was equal to an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 0.8 deaths (0.5–1.0) per 100,000 and represents a 36% (2–49) decrease in ASMR since 1990. India had the greatest number of deaths in 2019, equal to an ASMR of 4.0 per 100,000 (2.3-5.0). We forecast mortality will continue to decline, but not sufficiently to meet the WHO’s goals. Improved data collection should be prioritized to help target interventions, improve burden estimation, and monitor progress.

Burden of Healthcare-Associated Infections in Sicily, Italy: Estimates from the Regional Point Prevalence Surveys 2016–2018

An assessment of the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is useful for comparing and ranking HAIs and to support infection prevention and control strategies. We estimated the burden of healthcare-associated pneumoniae (HAP), bloodstream infection (HA BSI), urinary tract infection (HA UTI), and surgical site infection (SSI) in Sicily, Italy. We used data from 15,642 patients aged 45 years and above, identified during three repeated point prevalence surveys (PPSs) conducted from 2016 to 2018 according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control protocol. The methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe project was employed. The selected HAIs accounted for 8424 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 7394–9605) annually in Sicily, corresponding to 344 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants aged 45 years and above (95% UI: 302–392). Notably, more than 60% of the burden was attributable to HAP, followed by HA BSI, SSI, and HA UTI. The latter had the lowest burden despite a relatively high incidence, whereas HA BSI generated a high burden even through a relatively low incidence. Differences between our estimates and those of European and Italian PPSs encourage the estimation of the burden of HAIs region by region.

Health and Economic Impacts Assessment of O3 Exposure in Mexico

Health effects related to exposure to air pollution such as ozone (O3) have been documented. The World Health Organization has recommended the use of the Sum of O3 Means Over 35 ppb (SOMO35) to perform Health Impact Assessments (HIA) for long-term exposure to O3. We estimated the avoidable mortality associated with long-term exposure to tropospheric O3 in 14 cities in Mexico using information for 2015. The economic valuation of avoidable deaths related to SOMO35 exposure was performed using the willingness to pay (WTP) and human capital (HC) approaches. We estimated that 627 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 227–1051) from respiratory diseases associated with the exposure to O3 would have been avoided in people over 30 years in the study area, which confirms the public health impacts of ambient air pollution. The avoidable deaths account for almost 1400 million USD under the WTP approach, whilst the HC method yielded a lost productivity estimate of 29.7 million USD due to premature deaths. Our findings represent the first evidence of the health impacts of O3 exposure in Mexico, using SOMO35 metrics.