scholarly journals Oil Price and Covid-19: Pandemic Vs Epidemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
YAN-LING TAN ◽  
yiew thian hee ◽  
MUZAFAR SHAH HABIBULLAH
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Entire Period ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Epidemic Period

Abstract The objective of this study is to contribute to the existing studies on the effects of COVID-19 on oil prices from the period spanning December 31, 2019 to June 29, 2020 by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test. The sample period is divided into the epidemic period (December 31, 2019 -March 10, 2020) and the pandemic period (March 11, 2020 to June 29, 2020). The results confirm there exist a cointegrating relation between oil price and COVID-19 for the entire period spanning December 2019 to June 2020. The COVID-19 has a negative impact on crude oil prices in the long-run irrespective of the indicator of the COVID-19 used in the study. Moreover, the estimates using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Canonical Cointgerating Regression (CCR) are similar to the ARDL framework. Overall, the presence of cointegrating relation can only be noticed over the entire period, but not when considering for the epidemic and pandemic periods

scholarly journals Stock Prices of Renewable Energy Firms: Are There Asymmetric Responses to Oil Price Changes?

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donggyu Lee ◽  
Jungho Baek
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This article revisits the question of whether crude oil prices have a positive effect on stock the prices of renewable energy firms. To examine this question carefully, we allow for the asymmetric effects of oil price changes in our modeling process, using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. We find that changes in oil prices indeed have a significant, positive short-run effect on renewable energy stock prices in an asymmetric manner. However, this short-run effect does not appear to last in the long-run.

scholarly journals How have COVID-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths Affected Stock Markets? Evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-99
Author(s):  
Nurudeen Abu ◽  
Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal ◽  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
Ana Mateen ◽  
David Joseph ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Canonical Cointegrating Regression

This study assesses the effect of COVID-19 proxied by the number of confirmed cases of the infection and deaths on Nigeria’s stock market over the 23rd March to 11th September 2020 period using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) techniques. The bounds test to cointegration result reveals that a long-run relationship exists between COVID-19 and Nigeria’s stock market (along with oil prices and exchange rate). The results of the various estimations demonstrate that COVID-19 (proxied by the number of confirmed cases of infection) has a negative and significant impact on stock market performance, while the number deaths has a positive and significant impact on the market in the long-run. In addition, oil prices and exchange rate have a significant and positive effect on stock market performance in the long-run. Similar results were found for sub-sectors including consumer goods and healthcare sub-sectors of the stock market. The study recommends policies to curb the spread of the virus

scholarly journals The Impact of Industrialization, Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Khalid Eltayeb Elfaki ◽  
Rossanto Dwi Handoyo ◽  
Kabiru Hannafi Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to scrutinize the impact of financial development, energy consumption, industrialization, and trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1984–2018. To do so, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run and short-run nexus among the variables. Furthermore, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) were used for a more robust examination of the empirical findings. The result of cointegration confirms the presence of cointegration among the variables. Findings from the ARDL indicate that industrialization, energy consumption, and financial development (measured by domestic credit) positively influence economic growth in the long run. However, financial development (measured by money supply) and trade openness demonstrate a negative effect on economic growth. The positive nexus among industrialization, financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth explains that these variables were stimulating growth in Indonesia. The error correction term indicates a 68% annual adjustment from any deviation in the previous period’s long-run equilibrium economic growth. These findings provide a strong testimony that industrialization and financial development are key to sustained long-run economic growth in Indonesia.

ANALYZING THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE CHANGES ON CHINA’S PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
XIANCHUN LIAO ◽  
JUNGHO BAEK
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Gasoline Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

As the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, China depends on imports for approximately 60% and domestic production for approximately 40%, of its oil demand. Therefore, it is very interesting to assess the pass-through effects of both domestic and international crude oil prices to gasoline and diesel prices. After the short- and long-run investigations using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology of Shin et al. [Shin, Y, BC Yu and M Greenwood-Nimmo (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework” Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, R Sickels and W Horrace (eds.), pp. 281–314. Springer.], we find overwhelming evidence supporting the asymmetric price transmission mechanism between crude oil prices and gasoline prices in both the short- and long-run. In the case of diesel prices, on the other hand, the asymmetry effects seem likely to be a long-run phenomenon.

scholarly journals Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Jeyhun I. Mikayilov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Vugar Muradov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

The study analyzes the impact of economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and oil price on renewable energy consumption in Azerbaijan for the data spanning from 1992 to 2015, utilizing structural time series modeling approach. Estimation results reveal that there is a long-run positive and statistically significant effect of economic growth on renewable energy consumption and a negative impact of oil price in the case of Azerbaijan, for the studied period. The negative impact of oil price on renewable energy consumption can be seen as an indication of comfort brought by the environment of higher oil prices, which delays the transition from conventional energy sources to renewable energy consumption for the studied country case. Also, we find that the effect of CO2 on renewable energy consumption is negative but statistically insignificant. The results of this article might be beneficial for policymakers and support the current literature for further research for oil-rich developing countries.

The relationship between foreign aid and corruption: a case of selected Asian countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 692-704
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali ◽  
Lubna Khan ◽  
Amna Sohail ◽  
Chin Hong Puah
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Foreign Assistance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of foreign aid (FA) on corruption in selected Asian countries (Pakistan, India, Srilanka and Bangladesh) using the panel data from 2000 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach The author used Levin-Lin-Chu and Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root tests to check the stationary properties of the variables. The Pedroni’s and Kao panel cointegration approach was applied to analyze the variable’s long-run relationship. The author used panel dynamic ordinary least squares (PDOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) framework to estimate the coefficients of cointegrating vectors. Additionally, the panel granger causality test was performed to check the causal relationship between the variables. Findings The results from PDOLS and FMOLS indicate that FA has a significant negative impact on the level of corruption. This infers that the foreign assistance decrease the level of corruption perception index, hence, more corruption in the country. Originality/value Overall, the study fulfills the need to understand the aid-corruption nexus, particularly in the case of the Asian region.

The impact of Iran Central Bank’s sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Mostafa Karimzadeh ◽  
Navid Paydarmanesh
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose US sanctions have been a major feature of US Iran policy since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, but the imposition of UN and worldwide bilateral sanctions on Iran that began in 2006 and increased dramatically as of 2010 is recent by comparison. The objectives of US sanctions have evolved over time. Broad international sanctions imposed on Iran harmed Iran’s economy and contributed to Iran’s acceptance of agreements that exchange constraints on its nuclear program for sanctions relief. The subject of this study is important because both Iran and the international communities are demanding for information about the effect of sanctions on Iran. In an international and regional perspective, it seems that sanctions have a negative impact on economic, social and even political status of Iran. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the impact of Iran Central Bank sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange as on December 31, 2011. Design/methodology/approach Variables of model are consisted by exchange rate, oil prices and Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) from October 2, 2011 to March 29, 2012, which is offered daily. To analyze the model, the authors used Johansen–Juselius and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods. Findings The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between selected variables as oil prices, and exchange rates have a positive effect on the TEPIX. In other words, the results of the econometric estimation show the positive effect of the Iran Central Bank sanction on the TEPIX. Thus, because of economic sanctions imposed by the Western countries, Tehran Stock Exchange has been growing. Originality/value No empirical research exists that examines the impact of sanctions on stock price in developing countries. This study fills this gap by examining the links between sanctions and stock price in Iran.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of oil price fluctuations on food price in high and low-income oil exporting countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 458-468
Author(s):  
Chen Ding ◽  
Umar Muhammad Gummi ◽  
Shan-bing Lu ◽  
Asiya Muazu
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Oil exporting economies were the most hit by the recent oil price shock that spills on the food market in an increasingly volatile macroeconomic environment. This paper examines and compares sub-samples [before crisis <br />(2000 Q1–2013 Q1) and during crisis (2013 Q2–2019 Q4)] as to the impact of oil price on food prices in high- and low-income oil-exporting countries. We found an inverse relationship between oil and food prices in the long run based on full samples and sub-samples in high-income countries. The story is different during the crisis period: in low-income countries and all the countries combined, oil and food prices co-move in the long run as measured by the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our findings suggest that economic structure and uncertain events (crises) dictate the behaviour and relationship between food and oil markets. Food and oil prices may drift away in the short-run, but market forces turn them toward equilibrium in the long-run. Moreover, low-income countries are indifferent in both periods due to limited capacity to balance the increasing demand for and supply of food items.

scholarly journals Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Tarek Ghazouani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real GDP per capita, FDI inflow, and crude oil price on CO2 emission in Tunisia for the 1972–2016 period. Using the cointegration tests, namely ARDL and NARDL bound test, the results show that the variables are associated in a long run relationship. Long run estimates from both approach confirms the validity of ECK hypothesis for Tunisia. Symmetric analysis reveals that economic growth and the price of crude oil adversely affect the environment, in contrast to FDI inflows that reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. Whereas the asymmetric analysis show that increase in crude oil price harm the environment and decrease in crude oil price have positive repercussions on the environment. The causality analysis suggests that a bilateral link exists between economic growth and carbon emissions and a one-way causality ranges from FDI inflows and crude oil prices to carbon emissions. Thus, some policy recommendations have been formulated to help Tunisia reduce carbon emissions and support economic development.

scholarly journals Changes in Crude Oil Prices and the Flow of Government Revenue

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Chukwunweike Stella ◽  
Achu Tonia Chinedu ◽  
Awa Kalu Idika
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This work is set out as an investigation into the impact of change in oil prices on government revenue broken into oil and nonoil component. Drawing data from the Central Bank Statistical Bulletin and covering the period 1981 to 2018. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model was used because of its advantages over other regression techniques. It was found that changes in oil price affected oil revenue within the studied period leaving no significant impact on nonoil revenue. The result obviously reflects the Nigerian economy and its mono-product characteristic. It is therefore recommended that a conscious policy effort should be made to diversify the economy in a manner that makes revenue to the government multifarious functions.

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