scholarly journals How have COVID-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths Affected Stock Markets? Evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-99
Author(s):  
Nurudeen Abu ◽  
Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal ◽  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
Ana Mateen ◽  
David Joseph ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Canonical Cointegrating Regression

This study assesses the effect of COVID-19 proxied by the number of confirmed cases of the infection and deaths on Nigeria’s stock market over the 23rd March to 11th September 2020 period using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) techniques. The bounds test to cointegration result reveals that a long-run relationship exists between COVID-19 and Nigeria’s stock market (along with oil prices and exchange rate). The results of the various estimations demonstrate that COVID-19 (proxied by the number of confirmed cases of infection) has a negative and significant impact on stock market performance, while the number deaths has a positive and significant impact on the market in the long-run. In addition, oil prices and exchange rate have a significant and positive effect on stock market performance in the long-run. Similar results were found for sub-sectors including consumer goods and healthcare sub-sectors of the stock market. The study recommends policies to curb the spread of the virus

scholarly journals Does Stock Market Respond to Disease Pandemic? A Case of COVID-19 in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-101
Author(s):  
Terver Theophilus Kumeka ◽  
Olabusuyi Rufus Falayi ◽  
Adeniyi Jimmy Adedokun
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Government ◽  
Canonical Cointegrating Regression

Abstract This paper investigates whether stock markets respond to disease pandemic referencing the case of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The paper employs three cointegrating regression models: Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, and Canonical Cointegrating Regression to analyse the effect of growth in total COVID-19 confirmed cases and related deaths in Nigeria and across the globe from 27 February 2020 to 4 September 2020 on the stock market performance. Key findings support the presence of long-run association between stock market returns and COVID-19 in Nigeria. The stock market is found to respond negatively to both domestic and global growths in total confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19. Consequently, affected businesses in Nigeria should be assisted and bailed out by the government through practices such as tax filing, subsidies, targeted spending, and credit.

scholarly journals Social and Economic Drivers of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-143
Author(s):  
Ismaila Akanni Yusuf ◽  
Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen ◽  
Hope Agbonrofo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Stock Performance ◽  
Stock Market Performance

The study examines the effect of the social and economic indicators on the stock market performance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2019. The study employs secondary data from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria using the ordinary least squares as the technique of estimation. Findings show that regarding the economic drivers, interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate negatively impact the stock market while only income exerts a positive impact. However, both income and interest rate are significant economic drivers of stock performance. Regarding social drivers, life expectancy, poverty, and population exert a positive impact on stock performance. Similarly, both life expectancy and population are significant social drivers of stock market performance in Nigeria. The study recommends that monetary authorities should be cautious in avoiding discretionary policies that might hike the exchange rate; otherwise, the flow of funds to the stock market will be derailed. Also, the fiscal authority should invest massively in safety nets programmes to enhance the capacity of the growing population and reduce poverty.

scholarly journals Dynamic impact of Gold Prices, Oil Prices and Exchange Rate on Stock Market Performance: A Case of Pakistan’s Stock Exchange (KSE 100 Index)

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Asif Ali ◽  
Muhammad Kamran Khan ◽  
Hamid Ullah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Term Relation ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

Currently emerging markets are passing through economic turmoil due to considerable increases in the prices of oil and gold with significant variation in the foreign exchange market. All the macroeconomic variables are touching the highest value which was never occurred in the history of Pakistan. Taking advantages of the current situation the study has examined the impact of gold prices, oil prices and exchange rate on stock market performance. For this purpose, the study has used daily data of these macroeconomic variables for the period of 2003 to 2018. By using time series data analysis, it reveals that there is no co-integration or long-term relation among these variables; however, the vector autoregressive model showed significant short-term relation among the securities market performance, foreign exchange rate, prices of oil and gold. The analysis also suggests that significant changes in the prices of oil, foreign exchange rates and the prices of gold have a negative lagged effect on the performance of the stock market.

Assymetric effect of fiscal and monetary policies on the stock market performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-53
Author(s):  
Oluwayemisi Adeleke ◽  
Olusola Oyeleke
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Test Technique ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance

This study investigated the asymmetric effect of fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance from 2000:q1-2018q3 in Nigeria. The study used Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test technique of cointegration to determine the equilibrium relationship among the series. After the long run relationship has been established, Vector Error Correction Model was used to analyse the data. The results showed that only anticipated fiscal policy had a negative and significant effect on the stock market performance in the third and fourth quarters of the year. In contrast, anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy as well as unanticipated fiscal policy did not exert effect on stock market performance in Nigeria. Government in Nigeria should reduce its expenditure which has the capacity to negatively influence the performance of stock market in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Oil Price and Covid-19: Pandemic Vs Epidemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
YAN-LING TAN ◽  
yiew thian hee ◽  
MUZAFAR SHAH HABIBULLAH
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Entire Period ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Epidemic Period

Abstract The objective of this study is to contribute to the existing studies on the effects of COVID-19 on oil prices from the period spanning December 31, 2019 to June 29, 2020 by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test. The sample period is divided into the epidemic period (December 31, 2019 -March 10, 2020) and the pandemic period (March 11, 2020 to June 29, 2020). The results confirm there exist a cointegrating relation between oil price and COVID-19 for the entire period spanning December 2019 to June 2020. The COVID-19 has a negative impact on crude oil prices in the long-run irrespective of the indicator of the COVID-19 used in the study. Moreover, the estimates using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Canonical Cointgerating Regression (CCR) are similar to the ARDL framework. Overall, the presence of cointegrating relation can only be noticed over the entire period, but not when considering for the epidemic and pandemic periods

scholarly journals The Effect of Money Supply, Exchange Rate, and Interest Spread toward the Performance of Stock Market in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Yeoh Kai Qing ◽  
Suhal Kusairi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The stock market has become a significant role in the economy and has attracted investor's attention, as it is to generate funds and make an investment decision for companies and investors as well. Therefore, the objective of this study is to study the effect of the money supply, exchange rate, interest spread and stock market in the short and long run and volatility issue. The study employed monthly data, from January 1997 to August 2018. Method analysis is the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and GARCH model. The findings stated that the money supply, real effective exchange rate, interest spread, had a long-run effect on the performance of the stock market. Money supply and the real effective exchange rate had a positive effect on the stock market performance in the short run. Conversely, the interest spread showed a negative influent on the stock market performance in the short run. The volatility indicated a high persistence between the money supply, real effective exchange rate, interest spread and stock market (KLCI). The implication of the study is the investors or policymakers should take account the changes of interest rate and exchange rate before making stock investment or policy to stabilize the stock market performance.Keywords: Performance, Money Supply, Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Interest Spread

scholarly journals Asymmetric Effect of Gold and Oil Prices on Stock Market Performance in Pakistan: New Evidence from Asymmetric ARDL Cointegration

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saeed ◽  
Muhammad Hafeez ◽  
Ghulam Mustafa Shaikh ◽  
Muhammad Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Impact

The previous studies on stock market modelling in Pakistan context has assumed a linear relationship between stock market performance and its determinants. Most of the macroeconomic variables do not have linear properties, therefore considering asymmetric features of macroeconomic fundamentals, this study is a first attempt to explore the asymmetric impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market performance of Pakistan, covering the time period of 1990 – 2016. For the consideration of nonlinear, short-run and long-run associations between gold, oil prices and stock market performance, a novel approach of nonlinear ARDL or asymmetric ARDL is being used. The long-run parameters of the study affirm the asymmetric association between gold, oil prices and stock market performance, while short-run dynamics validate the asymmetric association between oil prices and stock market performance. Furthermore, negative and significant link between the exchange rate and the stock market was also found. The empirical outcomes propose that ignoring intrinsic asymmetries may lead to the misrepresentative implications in case of stock market performance. The achieved suggestion of asymmetries, both short and long-run dynamics could be of key prominence for more effective policy-making and to forecast the Pakistan Stock Market.

scholarly journals The Impact of Industrialization, Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Khalid Eltayeb Elfaki ◽  
Rossanto Dwi Handoyo ◽  
Kabiru Hannafi Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to scrutinize the impact of financial development, energy consumption, industrialization, and trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1984–2018. To do so, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run and short-run nexus among the variables. Furthermore, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) were used for a more robust examination of the empirical findings. The result of cointegration confirms the presence of cointegration among the variables. Findings from the ARDL indicate that industrialization, energy consumption, and financial development (measured by domestic credit) positively influence economic growth in the long run. However, financial development (measured by money supply) and trade openness demonstrate a negative effect on economic growth. The positive nexus among industrialization, financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth explains that these variables were stimulating growth in Indonesia. The error correction term indicates a 68% annual adjustment from any deviation in the previous period’s long-run equilibrium economic growth. These findings provide a strong testimony that industrialization and financial development are key to sustained long-run economic growth in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Does Monetary Policy and Foreign Direct Investment Have an Influence on the Performance of Stock Market: Further Empirical Evidence from Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-176
Author(s):  
Opoku Adabor ◽  
Emmanuel Buabeng
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Effect

Monetary policy, foreign direct investment, and the stock market continue to dominate in discussions in developing countries. However, the linkage between the three variables in empirical literature remains unclear. This study aims to test two separate hypotheses: Firstly, the study examines the effects of monetary policy on stock market performance in Ghana. Secondly, the study also empirically investigates the effect of foreign direct investment on stock market performance in Ghana. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed as an estimation strategy to examine the short and long-run effects using annual time series data from 1990 to 2019. The study revealed that monetary policy rate and money supply exerts a statistically significant negative and a positive effect on stock market performance in both the long and short-run in Ghana, respectively. It was also found that foreign direct investment has significant and a positive effect on stock market performance in Ghana in both the long and short run. Total capital stock and volume traded were also found to exert significant positive and negative impacts on stock market performance both in the short and long run respectively. Based on our findings, we recommend that expansionary monetary policy will be a better option to be carried out to improve the stock market performance in Ghana. Furthermore, government and private partnership may ensure the effective management of the macroeconomic variables to attract foreign direct investment into Ghana to boost stock market performance.

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