Spatiotemporal Cluster Patterns of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the Province level in Mainland China, 2009-2018

Abstract BackgroundAlthough three monovalent EV-A71 vaccines have been launched in mainland China since 2016, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) still causes a considerable disease burden in China. Vaccines’ use may change the epidemiological characters of HFMD. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal cluster of HFMD at the province level in mainland China from 2009 to 2018 and compare the difference before and after the vaccines were launched. MethodsAll HFMD cases’ data from January 2009 to December 2018 were obtained from the public health science data center given by the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan statistics analysis were used to explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of this disease at the provincial level in mainland China. ResultsThe median annual incidence of HFMD was 143.22 per 100,000 (ranging from 87.01 to 205.06) in mainland China from 2009 to 2018. Two peaks of infections were observed per year. Children 5 years and under were the main morbid population. The global autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern in each year (P<0.001), and the local autocorrelation analysis indicated that the high incidence areas were clustered in the southern and southeastern coastal provinces. The distribution of HFMD cases was clustered in time and space. The range of cluster time was between April and October. The most likely cluster appeared in the southern coastal provinces (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan) from 2010 to 2017 and in the southeastern coastal provinces (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) in 2018. ConclusionChanges in the spatiotemporal cluster of HFMD after the launch of EV-A71 vaccines were observed at the province level in mainland China in 2018. It is necessary to advance the EV-A71 vaccination plan, analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of different enterovirus pathogens of HFMD, and promote HFMD multivalent vaccines.

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Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-424752/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wang Haoran ◽

Xiao Jianhua ◽

Ouyang Maolin ◽

Gao Hongyan ◽

Bie Jia ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Decision Analysis ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Risk Areas ◽

And Control

Abstract Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis. Results Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Guangdong), northern (Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). We found spring as the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC = 0.8532). Conclusions These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and provinces can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

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The temporal characteristics of the lag-response relationship and related key time points between ambient temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease: A multicity study from mainland China

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141679 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 749 ◽

pp. 141679

Author(s):

Xiaowei Yi ◽

Zhaorui Chang ◽

Xing Zhao ◽

Yue Ma ◽

Fengfeng Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ambient Temperature ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Response Relationship ◽

Temporal Characteristics ◽

Time Points ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Spatial and temporal distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in four districts situated along the Uganda–Tanzania border: Implications for cross-border efforts in disease control

Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research ◽

10.4102/ojvr.v85i1.1528 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 85 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Susan D. Kerfua ◽

Gabriel Shirima ◽

Lughano Kusiluka ◽

Chrisostome Ayebazibwe ◽

Robert Mwebe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Temporal Distribution ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Economic Loss ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Eastern Africa ◽

Spatial And Temporal Distribution ◽

Entire Study ◽

Border Area ◽

Cross Border ◽

Foot And Mouth

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the major trans-boundary animal diseases in East Africa causing economic loss to farmers and other stakeholders in the livestock industry. Foot-and-mouth disease occurs widely in both Uganda and Tanzania with annual outbreaks recorded. With the recent introduction of the Progressive Control Pathway for FMD control (PCP-FMD) in eastern Africa, knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD at the border area between Uganda and Tanzania is helpful in framing engagement with the initial stages of the PCP. Retrospective data collected between 2011 and 2016 from four districts located along the border areas of Uganda and Tanzania, recorded 23 and 59 FMD outbreaks, respectively, for the entire study period. Analysis showed that 46% of the 82 recorded outbreaks occurred in 20% of sub-counties and wards immediately neighbouring the Uganda–Tanzania border and 69.5% of the outbreaks occurred during the dry months. While the serotypes of the FMD virus responsible for most outbreaks reported in this region were not known, previous research reported South African Territory (SAT) 1, SAT 2 and O to be the serotypes in circulation. The results from this study provide evidence of the endemic status of FMD on the Uganda–Tanzania border and emphasise that the border area should be given due consideration during FMD control drives and that cross-border coordination should be prioritised. With the limited data on circulating serotypes in this area, there is a need for more vigilance on FMD case detection, laboratory diagnostic confirmation and provision of more complete documentation of outbreaks. This work further recommends more studies on cross-border livestock movement coupled with phylogenetics in order to understand the spread of the FMD in the border area.

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Corrigendum: Spatial and temporal distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in four districts situated along the Uganda–Tanzania border: Implications for cross-border efforts in disease control

Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research ◽

10.4102/ojvr.v85i1.1716 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 85 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Susan D. Kerfua ◽

Gabriel Shirima ◽

Lughano Kusiluka ◽

Chrisostom Ayebazibwe ◽

Robert Mwebe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Control ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Spatial And Temporal Distribution ◽

Cross Border ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Patterns of spread and persistence of foot-and-mouth disease types A, O and Asia-1 in Turkey: a meta-population approach

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268804003516 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 133 (3) ◽

pp. 537-545 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

M. GILBERT ◽

S. AKTAS ◽

H. MOHAMMED ◽

P. ROEDER ◽

K. SUMPTION ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Short Distance ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Temporal Patterns ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Meat Production ◽

Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽

Long Distance ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Province Level ◽

Production Demand

Despite significant control efforts, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) persists in Turkey, and new strains of serotypes A, O and Asia-1 are periodically reported to enter the country from the east. The status of FMD in Turkey is important regionally because the country forms a natural bridge between Asia where the disease is endemic, and Europe which has disease-free status. This study analysed spatial and temporal patterns of FMD occurrence in Turkey to explore factors associated with the disease's persistence and spread. Annual records of FMD distribution in Turkish provinces throughout 1990–2002, grouped by serotype (O, A and Asia 1), were analysed using geostatistical techniques to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. A meta-population model was used to test how disease status, expressed in terms of presence/absence, extinction, and colonization, and measured at the province level throughout the periods 1990–1996 and 1997–2002, could be predicted using province-level data on: ruminant livestock numbers; meat production-demand discrepancy (as a surrogate measure of animal and animal products marketing, i.e. long-distance contagion through the traffic of mainly live animals to urban centres); and the disease prevalence distribution as recorded for the previous year. A drastic overall reduction in FMD occurrence was observed from the period 1990–1996 to 1997–2002 when the disease was shown to retract into persistence islands. FMD occurrence was associated with host abundance, short distance contagion from adjacent provinces, and meat production-demand discrepancies. With FMD retracting into identified provinces, a shift in predictors of FMD occurrence was observed with a lower contribution of short-distance contagion, and a relatively higher association with meat production-demand discrepancies leading to live animal transport over long distances, and hence presenting opportunities for identifying critical-control points. The pattern of persistence differed according to serotype groups and is discussed in relation to their differential affinity to cattle and small ruminant hosts.

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