Prediction of province-level outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in Iran using a zero-inflated negative binomial model

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.

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Patterns of spread and persistence of foot-and-mouth disease types A, O and Asia-1 in Turkey: a meta-population approach

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268804003516 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 133 (3) ◽

pp. 537-545 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

M. GILBERT ◽

S. AKTAS ◽

H. MOHAMMED ◽

P. ROEDER ◽

K. SUMPTION ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Short Distance ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Temporal Patterns ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Meat Production ◽

Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽

Long Distance ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Province Level ◽

Production Demand

Despite significant control efforts, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) persists in Turkey, and new strains of serotypes A, O and Asia-1 are periodically reported to enter the country from the east. The status of FMD in Turkey is important regionally because the country forms a natural bridge between Asia where the disease is endemic, and Europe which has disease-free status. This study analysed spatial and temporal patterns of FMD occurrence in Turkey to explore factors associated with the disease's persistence and spread. Annual records of FMD distribution in Turkish provinces throughout 1990–2002, grouped by serotype (O, A and Asia 1), were analysed using geostatistical techniques to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. A meta-population model was used to test how disease status, expressed in terms of presence/absence, extinction, and colonization, and measured at the province level throughout the periods 1990–1996 and 1997–2002, could be predicted using province-level data on: ruminant livestock numbers; meat production-demand discrepancy (as a surrogate measure of animal and animal products marketing, i.e. long-distance contagion through the traffic of mainly live animals to urban centres); and the disease prevalence distribution as recorded for the previous year. A drastic overall reduction in FMD occurrence was observed from the period 1990–1996 to 1997–2002 when the disease was shown to retract into persistence islands. FMD occurrence was associated with host abundance, short distance contagion from adjacent provinces, and meat production-demand discrepancies. With FMD retracting into identified provinces, a shift in predictors of FMD occurrence was observed with a lower contribution of short-distance contagion, and a relatively higher association with meat production-demand discrepancies leading to live animal transport over long distances, and hence presenting opportunities for identifying critical-control points. The pattern of persistence differed according to serotype groups and is discussed in relation to their differential affinity to cattle and small ruminant hosts.

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Hand-foot-and-mouth disease and weather factors in Guangzhou, southern China

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268813002938 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 142 (8) ◽

pp. 1741-1750 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

T. LI ◽

Z. YANG ◽

B. DI ◽

M. WANG

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Southern China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Control Measures ◽

High Morbidity ◽

Weather Factors ◽

Foot And Mouth

SUMMARYHand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, we aimed to examine the effect of weather patterns on the incidence of HFMD in the subtropical city of Guangzhou for the period 2009–2012, and assist public health prevention and control measures. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. During the study period, a total of 166 770 HFMD-confirmed cases were reported, of which 11 died, yielding a fatality rate of 0·66/10 000. Annual incidence rates from 2009 to 2012 were 132·44, 311·40, 402·76, and 468·59/1 000 00 respectively. Each 1°C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9·38% (95% CI 8·17–10·51) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 6·80% (95% CI −6·99 to −6·65), having an opposite effect. Similarly, a 1% rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 0·67% or 0·51%, a 1 m/h rise in wind velocity corresponded to an increase of 4·01% or 2·65%, and a 1 day addition in the number of windy days corresponded to an increase of 24·73% or 25·87%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. Our findings revealed that the epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on occurrence and transmission of HFMD.

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Spatial-temporal mapping and risk factors for hand foot and mouth disease in northwestern inland China

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽

10.1371/journal.pntd.0009210 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (3) ◽

pp. e0009210

Author(s):

Ruifang Huang ◽

Jiate Wei ◽

Zhenwei Li ◽

Zhenguo Gao ◽

Muti Mahe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Land Cover ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

Land Cover Type ◽

Cover Type ◽

Multiple Factors ◽

Foot And Mouth

Background Hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the common human infectious diseases in China. Previous studies have described HFMD in tropical or coastal areas of Asia-Pacific countries. However, limited studies have thoroughly studied the epidemiology and potential risk factors for HFMD in inland areas with complex environmental conditions. Methodology/Principal findings Using the data from 2009 to 2018 on reported cases of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, we characterized the epidemic features of HFMD. Panel negative binomial model was used to identify climate, geographical and demographic determinants for HFMD incidence. A total of 70856 HFMD cases (average annual incidence: 305 per million persons) were reported in Xinjiang during the 10-year study period, of which 10393 (14.7%) were laboratory-confirmed and 98 (0.1%) were severe. HFMD peaked in summer every year during the study period, and incidence in 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2018 had minor peaks in autumn. After adjusting the school or holiday month, multiple factors were found to affect HFMD epidemiology: urban area being major land cover type (incidence risk ratio, IRR 2.08; 95% CI 1.50, 2.89), higher gross domestic product per capita (IRR 1.14; 95% CI 1.11, 1.16), rise in monthly average temperature (IRR 1.65; 95% CI 1.61, 1.69) and monthly accumulative precipitation (IRR 1.20; 95% CI 1.16, 1.24) predicted increase in the incidence of HFMD; farmland being major land cover type (IRR 0.72; 95% CI 0.64, 0.81), an increase of percentage of the minority (IRR 0.91; 95% CI 0.89, 0.93) and population density (IRR 0.98; 95% CI 0.98, 0.99) were related to a decrease in the incidence of HFMD. Conclusions/Significance In conclusion, the epidemic status of HFMD in Xinjiang is characterized by low morbidity and fatality. Multiple factors have significant influences on the occurrence and transmission of HFMD in Xinjiang.

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Spatiotemporal Cluster Patterns of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the Province level in Mainland China, 2009-2018

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1254533/v1 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Yuanzhe Wu ◽

Tingwei Wang ◽

Mingyi Zhao ◽

Shumin Dong ◽

Shiwen Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mainland China ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Health Science ◽

Scan Statistics ◽

Autocorrelation Analysis ◽

Science Data ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Province Level

Abstract BackgroundAlthough three monovalent EV-A71 vaccines have been launched in mainland China since 2016, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) still causes a considerable disease burden in China. Vaccines’ use may change the epidemiological characters of HFMD. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal cluster of HFMD at the province level in mainland China from 2009 to 2018 and compare the difference before and after the vaccines were launched. MethodsAll HFMD cases’ data from January 2009 to December 2018 were obtained from the public health science data center given by the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan statistics analysis were used to explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of this disease at the provincial level in mainland China. ResultsThe median annual incidence of HFMD was 143.22 per 100,000 (ranging from 87.01 to 205.06) in mainland China from 2009 to 2018. Two peaks of infections were observed per year. Children 5 years and under were the main morbid population. The global autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern in each year (P<0.001), and the local autocorrelation analysis indicated that the high incidence areas were clustered in the southern and southeastern coastal provinces. The distribution of HFMD cases was clustered in time and space. The range of cluster time was between April and October. The most likely cluster appeared in the southern coastal provinces (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan) from 2010 to 2017 and in the southeastern coastal provinces (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) in 2018. ConclusionChanges in the spatiotemporal cluster of HFMD after the launch of EV-A71 vaccines were observed at the province level in mainland China in 2018. It is necessary to advance the EV-A71 vaccination plan, analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of different enterovirus pathogens of HFMD, and promote HFMD multivalent vaccines.

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Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph15071476 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 15 (7) ◽

pp. 1476 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Chao Song ◽

Yaqian He ◽

Yanchen Bo ◽

Jinfeng Wang ◽

Zhoupeng Ren ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Relative Risk ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

County Level ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Bayesian Hierarchical ◽

Socioeconomic Variables ◽

Foot And Mouth

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease, prominent in China. China’s HFMD data are sparse with a large number of observed zeros across locations and over time. However, no previous studies have considered such a zero-inflated problem on HFMD’s spatiotemporal risk analysis and mapping, not to mention for the entire Mainland China at county level. Monthly county-level HFMD cases data combined with related climate and socioeconomic variables were collected. We developed four models, including spatiotemporal Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models under the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to explore disease spatiotemporal patterns. The results showed that the spatiotemporal ZINB model performed best. Both climate and socioeconomic variables were identified as significant risk factors for increasing HFMD incidence. The relative risk (RR) of HFMD at the local scale showed nonlinear temporal trends and was considerably spatially clustered in Mainland China. The first complete county-level spatiotemporal relative risk maps of HFMD were generated by this study. The new findings provide great potential for national county-level HFMD prevention and control, and the improved spatiotemporal zero-inflated model offers new insights for epidemic data with the zero-inflated problem in environmental epidemiology and public health.

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Biophysical Measurement of Molecular Weight of Foot-and-Mouth Disease RNA Fragments

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100051323 ◽

1974 ◽

Vol 32 ◽

pp. 262-263

Author(s):

Sydney S. Breese ◽

Howard L. Bachrach

Keyword(s):

Chemical Properties ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Distilled Water ◽

Bovine Plasma ◽

Mouth Disease Virus ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Carbon Coated ◽

Rna Fragments ◽

Physical And Chemical

Continuing studies on the physical and chemical properties of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) have included electron microscopy of RNA strands released when highly purified virus (1) was dialyzed against demlneralized distilled water. The RNA strands were dried on formvar-carbon coated electron microscope screens pretreated with 0.1% bovine plasma albumin in distilled water. At this low salt concentration the RNA strands were extended and were stained with 1% phosphotungstic acid. Random dispersions of strands were recorded on electron micrographs, enlarged to 30,000 or 40,000 X and the lengths measured with a map-measuring wheel. Figure 1 is a typical micrograph and Fig. 2 shows the distributions of strand lengths for the three major types of FMDV (A119 of 6/9/72; C3-Rezende of 1/5/73; and O1-Brugge of 8/24/73.

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High resolution surface structure of foot-and-mouth disease virus

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100082741 ◽

1978 ◽

Vol 36 (2) ◽

pp. 376-377

Author(s):

S. S. Breese ◽

H. L. Bachrach

Keyword(s):

Electron Microscopy ◽

High Resolution ◽

Surface Structure ◽

Disease Virus ◽

Potassium Phosphate ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Physical Measurements ◽

Mouth Disease Virus ◽

Foot And Mouth

Models for the structure of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) have been proposed from chemical and physical measurements (Brown, et al., 1970; Talbot and Brown, 1972; Strohmaier and Adam, 1976) and from rotational image-enhancement electron microscopy (Breese, et al., 1965). In this report we examine the surface structure of FMDV particles by high resolution electron microscopy and compare it with that of particles in which the outermost capsid protein VP3 (ca. 30, 000 daltons) has been split into smaller segments, two of which VP3a and VP3b have molecular weights of about 15, 000 daltons (Bachrach, et al., 1975).Highly purified and concentrated type A12, strain 119 FMDV (5 mg/ml) was prepared as previously described (Bachrach, et al., 1964) and stored at 4°C in 0. 2 M KC1-0. 5 M potassium phosphate buffer at pH 7. 5. For electron microscopy, 1. 0 ml samples of purified virus and trypsin-treated virus were dialyzed at 4°C against 0. 2 M NH4OAC at pH 7. 3, deposited onto carbonized formvar-coated copper screens and stained with phosphotungstic acid, pH 7. 3.

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