Proteinuria After 12 Months of Treatment For Lupus Nephritis As Predictor of Long-Term Renal Outcome: A Retrospective Cohort Study
Abstract Background: Lupus Nephritis (LN) progression to Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) and End-Stage-Renal-Disease (ESRD) represents one of the most dreaded complications of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), directly impacting quality of life and overall survival in affected patients. Identifying LN patients at high risk for poor renal outcome could lead to individualized management and treatment strategies regarding this population. We hypothesized that 24-hour urine proteinuria (PTU) after 12 months of treatment could act as a predictor of poor renal outcome in LN patients Methods: two hundred and fourteen patients who were diagnosed with LN and were followed up for more than 10 years in our center were enrolled retrospectively. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) were used to test the best cut-off value of PTU who predict bad long-term renal outcome. Results: the statistical difference was observed from 12 months when the outcome was ESRD, with a tendency from 6 months (p=0.06). Proteinuria > 0.9g/day at 12 months was the best predictor of ESRD, with the highest AUC (0.72). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 0.83, 0.65, 0.40, and 0.93, respectively. In the first year of LN treatment the serum creatinine was statistically different in any time for CKD (chronic kidney disease), but only at baseline for ESRD. Conclusions: In a population with more severe LN followed for a long time (>10 years), the cut-off point of PTU > 0.9/day is the best that predict progression to ESRD. The high negative predictive value emphasizes the need for a 1-year PTU-based LN treat to target treatment as a predictor of long-term renal outcome.