scholarly journals Is it Possible to Model the Impact of Calorie-Reduction Interventions on Childhood Obesity at a Population Level and Across the Range of Deprivation: Evidence from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon James Russell ◽  
Steven Hope ◽  
Helen Croker ◽  
Jessica Packer ◽  
Russell M Viner

Abstract Background Simulated interventions using observational data have the potential to inform policy and public health interventions where randomised controlled trials are not feasible. National childhood obesity policy is one such area. Overweight and obesity are primarily caused by energy-rich and low-nutrient diets that contribute to a positive net energy imbalance. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we investigated whether causal modelling techniques could be applied to simulate the potential impact of policy-relevant calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities in obesity in childhood.Methods Predicted probabilities of obesity at age 11 (UK90 cut offs) were estimated from logistic marginal structural models (MSM) accounting for observed calorie consumption at age 7 and confounding, overall and by maternal occupational social class. A series of population intervention scenarios were modelled to simulate daily calorie-reduction interventions that differed in effectiveness, targeting mechanism and programme uptake level.Results 18.3% of children were living with obesity at age 11 years, after accounting for confounding and observed calorie intake. MSM produced usable estimates of obesity reduction. A universal simulation to lower median intake to the estimated average requirement (EAR) (a 6.1% reduction in daily calories) with 75% uptake reduced overall obesity prevalence by 0.6%; there was little impact on inequalities. A targeted intervention to limit consumption to the EAR for children with above average intake reduced population obesity prevalence at 11 years by 1.5% but inequalities remained broadly unchanged. A targeted intervention for children of low-income families reduced prevalence and was found to slightly reduce inequalities.Conclusions MSMs allow estimation of effects of simulated calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity prevalence and inequalities, although estimates are limited by the accuracy of reported calorie intake. Further work is needed to understand causal pathways and opportunities for intervention.

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Butters ◽  
Amran Ismail ◽  
Sue Thompson ◽  
Rebecca Wilson

Birth cohort studies generate huge amounts of data, and as a consequence are a source of many peer reviewed publications. We have taken the list of publications from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children UK birth cohort, filtered, de-duplicated and cleaned it to generate a bibliographic research data set. This dataset could be used for accurate reporting and monitoring of the impact of the study as well as bibliometric research.


2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 2097-2107 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Geulayov ◽  
C. Metcalfe ◽  
D. Gunnell

BackgroundFew studies have investigated the impact of parental suicide attempt (SA) on offspring outcomes other than mental health. We investigated the association of parental SA with offspring educational attainment in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC).MethodParental SA was prospectively recorded from pregnancy until the study children were 11 years old. National school test results (ages 11–16 years) were obtained by record linkage. Multilevel regression models quantified the association between parental SA and offspring outcomes.ResultsData were available for 6667 mother–child and 3054 father–child pairs. Adolescents whose mothers had attempted suicide were less likely than their peers to achieve the expected educational level by age 14 years [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41–0.95] in models controlling for relevant confounders, including parental education and depression. At age 16 years, adolescents whose mothers had attempted suicide were less likely to obtain the expected educational level (five or more qualifications at grade A*–C) (aOR 0.66, 95% CI 0.43–1.00) in models controlling for relevant confounders and parental education; however, after additionally controlling for maternal depression the results were consistent with chance (aOR 0.74, 95% CI 0.48–1.13). Findings in relation to paternal SA were consistent with those of maternal SA but power was limited due to lower response rate amongst fathers.ConclusionsMaternal SA was associated with diminished educational performance at age 14 years. Educational attainment during adolescence can have substantial effect on future opportunities and well-being and these offspring may benefit from interventions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 278
Author(s):  
Daniel Smith ◽  
Kate Northstone ◽  
Claire Bowring ◽  
Nicholas Wells ◽  
Michael Crawford ◽  
...  

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1990-1992 from the Bristol area (UK). ALSPAC has followed these women, their partners (Generation 0; G0) and their offspring (Generation 1; G1) ever since. From 2012, ALSPAC has identified G1 participants who were pregnant (or their partner was) or had become parents, and enrolled them, their partners, and children in the ALSPAC-Generation 2 (ALSPAC-G2) study, providing a unique multi-generational cohort. At present, approximately 1,100 G2 children (excluding those in utero) from 810 G1 participants have been enrolled. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, ALSPAC rapidly deployed two online questionnaires; one during the initial lockdown phase in 2020 (9th April-15th May), and another when national lockdown restrictions were eased (26th May-5th July). As part of this second questionnaire, G1 parents completed a questionnaire about each of their G2 children. This covered: parental reports of children’s feelings and behaviour since lockdown, school attendance, contact patterns, and health. A total of 289 G1 participants completed this questionnaire on behalf of 411 G2 children. This COVID-19 G2 questionnaire data can be combined with pre-pandemic ALSPAC-G2 data, plus ALSPAC-G1 and -G0 data, to understand how children’s health and behaviour has been affected by the pandemic and its management. Data from this questionnaire will be complemented with linkage to health records and results of biological testing as they become available. Prospective studies are necessary to understand the impact of this pandemic on children’s health and development, yet few relevant studies exist; this resource will aid these efforts. Data has been released as: 1) a freely-available dataset containing participant responses with key sociodemographic variables; and 2) an ALSPAC-held dataset which can be combined with existing ALSPAC data, enabling bespoke research across all areas supported by the study.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Northstone ◽  
Simown Howarth ◽  
Daniel Smith ◽  
Claire Bowring ◽  
Nicholas Wells ◽  
...  

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1990-1992. The resource provides an informative and efficient setting for collecting data on the current coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In early March 2020, a questionnaire was developed in collaboration with other longitudinal population studies to ensure cross-cohort comparability. It targeted retrospective and current COVID-19 infection information (exposure assessment, symptom tracking and reported clinical outcomes) and the impact of both disease and mitigating measures implemented to manage the COVID-19 crisis more broadly. Data were collected on symptoms of COVID-19 and seasonal flu, travel prior to the pandemic, mental health and social, behavioural and lifestyle factors. The online questionnaire was deployed across the parent and offspring generations between the 9th April and 15th May 2020. 6807 participants completed the questionnaire (2706 original mothers, 1014 original fathers/partners, 2973 offspring (mean age ~28 years) and 114 partners of offspring). Eight (0.01%) participants (4 G0 and 4 G1) reported a positive test for COVID-19, 77 (1.13%; 28 G0 and 49 G1) reported that they had been told by a doctor they likely had COVID-19 and 865 (12.7%; 426 G0 and 439 G1) suspected that they have had COVID-19.  Using algorithmically defined cases, we estimate that the predicted proportion of COVID-19 cases fell between 1.03% - 4.19% depending on timing of measurement during the period of reporting. Data from this first questionnaire will be complemented with at least two more follow-up questionnaires, linkage to health records and results of biological testing as they become available. Data has been released as: 1) a standard dataset containing all participant responses with key sociodemographic factors and 2) as a composite release coordinating data from the existing resource, thus enabling bespoke research across all areas supported by the study.


2014 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 389-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah McMullen

The worldwide prevalence of overweight and obesity in the adult population is estimated to be 35 %. These trends are reflected in childhood obesity prevalence, and the potential impact of early-onset obesity is of great concern. The aim of this review was to investigate the long-term implications of childhood obesity for metabolic and cardiovascular health, focusing on the independent contribution of childhood obesity to adult disease risk, as distinct from associations mediated by tracking of obesity across the lifespan. The data systematically reviewed provide little evidence to suggest that childhood overweight and obesity are independent risk factors for metabolic and cardiovascular risk during adulthood. Instead, the data demonstrate that the relationships observed are dependent on tracking of BMI between childhood and adulthood, alongside persistence of dietary patterns and physical activity. Adjustment for adult BMI uncovers unexpected negative associations between childhood BMI and adult disease, suggesting a protective effect of childhood obesity at any given level of adult BMI. Further work is required to explain these findings, both in terms of pathways and statistical artefacts. To conclude, it must be stressed that it is not suggested that childhood obesity is without negative consequence. Childhood obesity is clearly associated with a range of adverse physical and psychological outcomes. However, the data are important in supporting a positive message that the long-term consequences of childhood obesity are avoidable; and that there remains opportunity for intervention across the lifespan. This nuance in understanding long-term risk is important when considering the effectiveness of interventions at different stages of the lifespan.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 278
Author(s):  
Daniel Smith ◽  
Kate Northstone ◽  
Claire Bowring ◽  
Nicholas Wells ◽  
Michael Crawford ◽  
...  

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1990-1992 from the Bristol area (UK). ALSPAC has followed these women, their partners (Generation 0; G0) and their offspring (Generation 1; G1) ever since. From 2012, ALSPAC has identified G1 participants who were pregnant (or their partner was) or had become parents, and enrolled them, their partners, and children in the ALSPAC-Generation 2 (ALSPAC-G2) study, providing a unique multi-generational cohort. At present, approximately 1,100 G2 children (excluding those in utero) from 810 G1 participants have been enrolled. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, ALSPAC rapidly deployed two online questionnaires; one during the initial lockdown phase in 2020 (9th April-15th May), and another when national lockdown restrictions were eased (26th May-5th July). As part of this second questionnaire, G1 parents completed a questionnaire about each of their G2 children. This covered: parental reports of children’s feelings and behaviour since lockdown, school attendance, contact patterns, and health. A total of 289 G1 participants completed this questionnaire on behalf of 411 G2 children. This COVID-19 G2 questionnaire data can be combined with pre-pandemic ALSPAC-G2 data, plus ALSPAC-G1 and -G0 data, to understand how children’s health and behaviour has been affected by the pandemic and its management. Data from this questionnaire will be complemented with linkage to health records and results of biological testing as they become available. Prospective studies are necessary to understand the impact of this pandemic on children’s health and development, yet few relevant studies exist; this resource will aid these efforts. Data has been released as: 1) a freely-available dataset containing participant responses with key sociodemographic variables; and 2) an ALSPAC-held dataset which can be combined with existing ALSPAC data, enabling bespoke research across all areas supported by the study.


2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika Frysz ◽  
Laura D. Howe ◽  
Jonathan H. Tobias ◽  
Lavinia Paternoster

Puberty is a time of substantial biological and psychological changes. One of the hallmarks of puberty is a rapid growth spurt, however its timing varies between individuals. The impact of pubertal timing on later health outcomes has been of interest in life course epidemiology, however its measurement can be challenging. Age at peak height velocity (aPHV) offers an objective measure of pubertal timing without having to rely on physical examination or self-report. We describe the derivation of aPHV estimates in Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) offspring, using Superimposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) mixed effects growth curve analysis. ALSPAC is a rich source of phenotypic and genotypic data and given the importance of pubertal timing for later health outcomes, these data offer an opportunity to explore the determinants and consequences of aPHV.


2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika Frysz ◽  
Laura D. Howe ◽  
Jonathan H. Tobias ◽  
Lavinia Paternoster

Puberty is a time of substantial biological and psychological changes. One of the hallmarks of puberty is a rapid growth spurt, however its timing varies between individuals. The impact of pubertal timing on later health outcomes has been of interest in life course epidemiology, however its measurement can be challenging. Age at peak height velocity (aPHV) offers an objective measure of pubertal timing without having to rely on physical examination or self-report. We describe the derivation of aPHV estimates in Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) offspring, using Superimposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) mixed effects growth curve analysis. ALSPAC is a rich source of phenotypic and genotypic data and given the importance of pubertal timing for later health outcomes, these data offer an opportunity to explore the determinants and consequences of aPHV.


2004 ◽  
pp. U141-U149 ◽  
Author(s):  
AR Ness

Childhood obesity is a major public health problem because the prevalence is increasing and because childhood obesity is associated with short- and long-term adverse consequences. By contributing to our understanding of the causes of childhood obesity epidemiological studies can help to inform preventive strategies. Prospective studies with all-of-life measures of exposures, objective measures of physical activity and more accurate measures of diet and body composition will be better able to identify modifiable environmental exposures that act cumulatively or at critical time periods across the lifecourse. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) recruited around 14 000 pregnant women with estimated dates of delivery between 1991 and 1992. The children have been followed-up in detail ever since and now constitute probably the most intensively studied cohort of children ever recruited. Recent analyses have identified important modifiable risk factors and further analyses based on more accurate measures of diet, activity and body composition should provide further insights.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Northstone ◽  
Simown Howarth ◽  
Daniel Smith ◽  
Claire Bowring ◽  
Nicholas Wells ◽  
...  

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1990-1992. The resource provides an informative and efficient setting for collecting data on the current coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In early March 2020, a questionnaire was developed in collaboration with other longitudinal population studies to ensure cross-cohort comparability. It targeted retrospective and current COVID-19 infection information (exposure assessment, symptom tracking and reported clinical outcomes) and the impact of both disease and mitigating measures implemented to manage the COVID-19 crisis more broadly. Data were collected on symptoms of COVID-19 and seasonal flu, travel prior to the pandemic, mental health and social, behavioural and lifestyle factors. The online questionnaire was deployed across parent (G0) and offspring (G1) generations between 9th April and 15th May 2020. 6807 participants completed the questionnaire (2706 original mothers, 1014 original fathers/partners, 2973 offspring (mean age ~28 years) and 114 offspring partners). Eight (0.01%) participants (4 G0 and 4 G1) reported a positive test for COVID-19, 77 (1.13%; 28 G0 and 49 G1) reported that they had been told by a doctor they likely had COVID-19 and 865 (12.7%; 426 G0 and 439 G1) suspected that they have had COVID-19.  Using algorithmically defined cases, we estimate that the predicted proportion of COVID-19 cases ranged from 1.03% - 4.19% depending on timing during the period of reporting (October 2019-March 2020). Data from this first questionnaire will be complemented with at least two more follow-up questionnaires, linkage to health records and results of biological testing as they become available. Data has been released as: 1) a standard dataset containing all participant responses with key sociodemographic factors and 2) as a composite release coordinating data from the existing resource, thus enabling bespoke research across all areas supported by the study.


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