scholarly journals Predicting Survival Outcome of Patients With Colorectal Cancer and Only Lung Metastasis: A Population-Based Real-World Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Tang ◽  
Jian-Feng Zhou ◽  
Chun-Mei Bai
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Lung Metastasis ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Histological Grade ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Survival Outcome ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Tumor Deposit

Abstract Background: Patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) have a poor prognosis, but lung metastasis (LM) generally has a relatively desirable survival outcome. However, clinicians have had few tools for estimating the probability of survival in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) and only LM (OLM). The present study aimed to develop nomograms estimating survival probability for patients with CRC and OLM.Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of patients with CRC between 2010 and 2014 were retrieved for retrospective analysis. Patients with OLM diagnosed between 2010 and 2014, except for 2012 (n = 1,118) were used to conduct multivariate Cox analysis to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms estimating 1- and 3-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were developed. The nomograms were internally validated for concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and were also externally validated with independent patients diagnosed in 2012 (n = 261).Results: Age, marital status, tumor location, tumor size, T and N stage, CEA, tumor deposit, histological grade, primary or metastatic tumor surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and income were found to be independently associated with OS and/or CSS. The nomograms were constructed based on these prognostic factors. The C-index were high in internal validation (0.736 for OS and 0.741 for CSS) and external validation (0.656 for OS and 0.663 for CSS). Internal and external calibration plots and ROC curves demonstrated a good agreement between actual observation and nomogram prediction.Conclusions: The nomograms individually predict OS and CSS of patients with CRC and OLM and could aid in the personalized prognostic evaluation and clinical decision-making.

scholarly journals Development and validation of nomograms for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients of colorectal cancer

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-269
Author(s):  
Jieyun Zhang ◽  
Yue Yang ◽  
Xiaojian Fu ◽  
Weijian Guo
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Cancer Prognosis ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Development And Validation

Abstract Purpose Nomograms are intuitive tools for individualized cancer prognosis. We sought to develop a clinical nomogram for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival for patients with colorectal cancer. Methods Patients with colorectal cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2006 and those who underwent surgery were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into the training (n = 119 797) and validation (n = 119 797) cohorts. Log-rank and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used in our analysis. To find out death from other cancer causes and non-cancer causes, a competing-risks model was used, based on which we integrated these significant prognostic factors into nomograms and subjected the nomograms to bootstrap internal validation and to external validation. Results The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year probabilities of overall survival in patients of colorectal cancer after surgery intervention were 83.04, 65.54, 54.79 and 38.62%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year cancer-specific survival was 87.36, 73.44, 66.22 and 59.11%, respectively. Nine independent prognostic factors for overall survival and nine independent prognostic factors for cancer specific survival were included to build the nomograms. Internal and external validation CI indexes of overall survival were 0.722 and 0.721, and those of cancer-specific survival were 0.765 and 0.766, which was satisfactory. Conclusions Nomograms for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with colorectal cancer. Performance of the model was excellent. This practical prognostic model may help clinicians in decision-making and design of clinical studies.

Lung metastasis as predictor for prognosis in metastatic colorectal cancer with mutated KRAS.

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 636-636
Author(s):  
Ben Boursi ◽  
Einat shacham-Shmueli ◽  
Yaacov Richard Lawrence ◽  
Yu-Xiao Yang ◽  
Kim Anna Reiss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Liver Metastasis ◽  
Metastatic Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Lung Metastasis ◽  
Primary Tumor ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Tumor Location ◽  
Single Site ◽  
Primary Tumor Location

636 Background: Previous studies have shown that prognosis in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) may vary according to sites of metastasis. We evaluated prognosis in individuals with single site metastasis, according to several clinical and genetic variables. Methods: Using the National Cancer Database we identified 58,044 mCRC patients with a synchronous single site of metastasis. We first examined the effect of metastasis site on prognosis. In a secondary analysis, among individuals who had not undergone surgery or received radiotherapy, we examined the prognostic value of chemotherapy intensity, KRAS status, primary tumor location and CEA levels. Results: Individuals with lung metastasis had the best prognosis (HR = 0.80, 0.77-0.83), followed by those with liver metastasis (HR = 1.11, 1.07-1.15), while those with bone or brain metastasis had the worse prognosis. In a subgroup analysis, we assessed prognosis among individuals who received multi-agent chemotherapy and had not undergone surgery or received radiotherapy. Individuals with lung metastasis and mutant KRAS had better prognosis compared with those with liver metastasis, (HR = 0.69, 0.54-0.88), regardless of primary tumor location or CEA levels. Conclusions: Single site metastasis to the lungs is associated with better prognosis in mCRC, specifically among KRAS mutant tumors. This survival advantage should be taken into consideration in clinical decision-making.

Prognostic factors of overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with resected early-stage rectal adenocarcinoma: a SEER-based study

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (8) ◽  
pp. 1148-1154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ko-Chao Lee ◽  
Kuan-Chih Chung ◽  
Hong-Hwa Chen ◽  
Chia-Cheng Liu ◽  
Chien-Chang Lu
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Rectal Adenocarcinoma ◽  
Signet Ring Cell ◽  
Postoperative Radiation Therapy ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Tumor Deposit ◽  
The Impact

The benefits of radiotherapy for colorectal cancer are well documented, but the impact of adjuvant radiotherapy on early-stage rectal adenocarcinoma remains unclear. This study aimed to identify predictors of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with stage II rectal adenocarcinoma treated with preoperative or postoperative radiation therapy. Patients with early-stage rectal adenocarcinoma in the postoperative state were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The primary endpoints were OS and overall CSS. Stage IIA patients without radiotherapy had significantly lower OS and CSS compared with those who received radiation before or after surgery. Stage IIB patients with radiotherapy before surgery had significantly higher OS and CSS compared with patients in the postoperative or no radiotherapy groups. Patients with signet ring cell carcinoma had the poorest OS among all the groups. Multivariable analysis showed that ethnicity (HR, 0.388, p=0.006) and radiation before surgery (HR, 0.614, p=0.006) were favorable prognostic factors for OS, while age (HR, 1.064, p<0.001), race (HR, 1.599, p=0.041), stage IIB (HR, 3.011, p=0.011), and more than one tumor deposit (TD) (HR, 2.300, p=0.001) were unfavorable prognostic factors for OS. Old age (HR, 1.047, p<0.00 L), stage IIB (HR, 8.619, p=0.005), circumferential resection margin between 0.1 mm and 10 mm (HR, 1.529, p=0.039), and more than one TD (HR, 2.688, p=0.001) were unfavorable prognostic factors for CSS. This population-based study identified predictors of OS and CSS in patients with early-stage resected rectal adenocarcinoma, which may help to guide future management of this patient population.

scholarly journals Prognostic Nomograms for Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer‐Specific Survival of Patients With Malignant Pheochromocytoma and Paraganglioma

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zheng ◽  
Yalong Gu ◽  
Jiangcun Silang ◽  
Jinlong Wang ◽  
Feng Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Tumor Stage ◽  
Malignant Pheochromocytoma ◽  
Tumor Type ◽  
Lasso Regression ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Calibration Curves

BackgroundMalignant pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma (PPGL) are rare tumors with few prognostic tools. This study aimed to construct nomograms for predicting 3- and 5-year survival for patients with malignant PPGL.MethodsThe patient data was retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A total of 764 patients diagnosed with malignant PPGL from 1975 to 2016 were included in this study. The patients were randomly divided into two cohorts; the training cohort (n = 536) and the validation cohort (n = 228). Univariate analysis, Lasso regression, and multivariate Cox analysis were used to identify independent prognostic factors, which were then utilized to construct survival nomograms. The nomograms were used to predict 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with malignant PPGL. The prediction accuracy of the nomogram was assessed using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCAs) was used to evaluate the performance of survival models.ResultsAge, gender, tumor type, tumor stage, or surgery were independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with malignant PPGL, while age, tumor stage, or surgery were independent prognostic factors for CSS (P &lt;.05). Based on these factors, we successfully constructed the OS and CSS nomograms. The C-indexes were 0.747 and 0.742 for the OS and CSS nomograms, respectively. In addition, both the calibration curves and ROC curves for the model exhibited reliable performance.ConclusionWe successfully constructed nomograms for predicting the OS and CSS of patients with malignant PPGL. The nomograms could inform personalized clinical management of the patients.

scholarly journals Prognostic nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxian Wu ◽  
Linbin Lu ◽  
Hong Chen ◽  
Yihong Lin ◽  
Huanlin Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Early Onset ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Staging System ◽  
Tnm Staging ◽  
Discriminative Ability ◽  
Tnm Staging System ◽  
Early Onset Colorectal Cancer

Abstract Purpose The present study aimed to identify independent clinicopathological and socio-economic prognostic factors associated with overall survival of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) patients and then establish and validate a prognostic nomogram for patients with EO-CRC. Methods Eligible patients with EO-CRC diagnosed from 2010 to 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a testing cohort. Independent prognostic factors were obtained using univariate and multivariate Cox analyses and were used to establish a nomogram for predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram were assessed using C-index values, AUC values, and calibration plots. Results In total, 5585 patients with EO-CRC were involved in the study. Based on the univariate and multivariate analyses, 15 independent prognostic factors were assembled into the nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year OS. The nomogram showed favorable discriminatory ability as indicated by the C-index (0.840, 95% CI 0.827–0.850), and the 3- and 5-year AUC values (0.868 and 0.84869 respectively). Calibration plots indicated optimal agreement between the nomogram-predicted survival and the actual observed survival. The results remained reproducible in the testing cohort. The C-index of the nomogram was higher than that of the TNM staging system (0.840 vs 0.804, P < 0.001). Conclusion A novel prognostic nomogram for EO-CRC patients based on independent clinicopathological and socio-economic factors was developed, which was superior to the TNM staging system. The nomogram could facilitate postoperative individual prognosis prediction and clinical decision-making.

Curative Radiotherapy using Different Radiation Techniques for Isolated Lung Metastasis from Colorectal Cancer

2013 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunyoung Lee ◽  
Dae Yong Kim ◽  
Sun Young Kim ◽  
Woong Sub Koom ◽  
Sun Young Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Treatment Response ◽  
Surgical Resection ◽  
Lung Metastasis ◽  
Local Control ◽  
Relapse Free Survival ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Curative Radiotherapy ◽  
Isolated Lung

Aims and background Surgical resection remains the mainstay for the treatment of colorectal lung metastasis, but a group of patients who are medically inoperable or unsuitable for surgery are treated with radiotherapy. The purpose of this multi-institutional study was to evaluate the clinical outcome and investigate the prognostic factors affecting local control and survival in this subset of patients. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 30 patients with 43 lesions who underwent curative radiotherapy for isolated lung metastasis from colorectal cancer at nine institutions from 2003 and 2008. A total dose of 42–75 Gy at the peripheral planning target volume was administered in 3–35 fractions. The median biologically equivalent dose was 84 Gy (range, 58.5–180). Results Treatment response was complete in 10 (33.3%), partial in 13 (43.3%), stable in six (20.0%), and progressive in one patient (3.3%). The median follow-up period for all patients was 29.0 months (range, 5.0–93.8). Kaplan-Meier local control at 5 years was 44%. The median survival was 46.2 months, and the 5-year overall survival was 47%. Twenty-three patients (77%) experienced treatment failure, most of which were intrapulmonary failure. The intrapulmonary relapse-free survival and overall relapse-free survival at 5 years were 22% and 19%, respectively. Treatment response and pre-radiotherapy carcinoembryonic antigen level were significant prognostic factors for local control and survival. Grade 3–5 toxicity occurred in 7 patients. Three patients had grade 5 toxicity, including radiation pneumonitis, a tracheoesophageal fistula, and hemoptysis. Conclusions Curative radiotherapy for isolated lung metastasis from colorectal cancer in patients who are medially inoperable or unsuitable for surgery results in long-term survival, comparable to surgical resection. Curative radiotherapy could be an effective and noninvasive alternative if dose-limiting toxicity is carefully considered, particularly in patients with bilateral or central lesions.

scholarly journals Prognostic nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma with radiofrequency ablation: a retrospective cohort study

BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenhua Lu ◽  
Zhen Sun ◽  
Chengyu Liu ◽  
Xiaolei Shi ◽  
Rui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Radiofrequency Ablation ◽  
Histological Grade ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Effective Treatment Option ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Prediction Scheme ◽  
Stage System

Abstract Background Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is an effective treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to analyze the prognostic factors of HCC patients treated with RFA and to develop nomograms for outcome prediction. Methods A total of 3142 HCC patients treated with RFA were recruited, and their data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multifactor Cox analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors. These factors were integrated into a nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Consistency indices and calibration plots were used to assess the accuracy of the nomograms in both the internal and external cohorts. Results The median follow-up periods for HCC patients treated with RFA were 27 and 29 months for OS and CSS, respectively. Marital status, age, race, histological grade of differentiation, tumor size, T stage, and serum alpha-fetoprotein levels at the time of diagnosis were identified as prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Additionally, M stage was identified as risk factors for OS. These risk factors are included in the nomogram. The calibration plots of the OS and CSS nomograms showed excellent consistency between actual survival and nomogram predictions. The bootstrap-corrected concordance indices of the OS and CSS nomograms were 0.637 (95% CI, 0.628–0.646) and 0.670 (95% 0.661–0.679), respectively. Importantly, our nomogram performed better discriminatory compared with 8th edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage system for predicting OS and CSS. Conclusions We identified prognostic factors for HCC patients treated with RFA and provided an accurate and personalized survival prediction scheme.

scholarly journals Nomogram for Predicting the Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival of Patients with Occult Breast Cancer: A Population-Based Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang-Yu Huang ◽  
Guowei Ma ◽  
Shen-Hua Liang ◽  
Lei-Lei Wu ◽  
Xuan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Subgroup Analysis ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Breast Cancer Patients ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Occult Breast Cancer ◽  
Training Cohort

Abstract Background: Occult breast cancer is a rare breast tumor, whose prognostic nomogram model has not been established. Thus, we aim to develop and validate a nomogram for evaluating the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with occult breast cancer. Methods: Between 2004 and 2015, 704 eligible occult breast cancer patients were screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database using specific inclusion and exclusion criteria and then included in the surveillance. They were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 494) and a validation cohort (N = 210). Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to explore independent prognostic factors and establish two survival-related nomograms. Area under the curve (AUC), consistency index (C index), internal and external validation calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), Kaplan-Meier analysis, and subgroup analysis were used to evaluate the nomogram. Results: A total of seven variables were considered to be independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS): age, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, Progesterone receptor (PR) status, N stage, number of lymph node examinations, and number of positive lymph nodes. In the training cohort, the OS nomogram-predicted AUC for three, five, and ten years were 0.792, 0.775, and 0.783, respectively, while those of the CSS nomogram were 0.807, 0.817, and 0.812, respectively. The calibration chart showed excellent agreement between the actual and the nomogram-predicted survival rates in both the training and validation cohorts. The C-index values ​​of the OS nomogram in the training and validation cohorts were 0.762 and 0.782, respectively, while those ​​of the CSS nomogram were 0.786 and 0.816, respectively. DCA and subgroup analysis proved the usefulness of nomograms. Conclusion: The developed nomogram provided a comprehensive visual model of the risk of each prognostic factor. It can be conveniently used as a personalized prediction tool for the prognosis of occult breast cancer patients.

scholarly journals A novel risk stratification for predicting prognosis of colorectal cancer patients with bone metastasis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenxi Ma ◽  
Xu Guan ◽  
Jichuan Quan ◽  
Zhixun Zhao ◽  
Haipeng Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Bone Metastasis ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Tumor Resection ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Discrimination Power

Abstract Backgroud: Our understanding in prognosis of bone metastasis (BM) from colorectal cancer (CRC) is limited. We aimed to establish a clinical risk stratification for individually predicting the survival of CRC patients with BM.Methods: A total of 200 CRC patients with BM were included in this study. Survival time from BM diagnosis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The multivariable COX regression model identified the risk factors on cancer specific survival (CSS). Based on weighted scoring system, the stratification model was constructed to classify patients with BM according to prognostic risk. Discrimination power and calibration ability of risk stratification were measured.Results: The median CSS time was 11 months after BM diagnosis. Lymph node metastasis, CA199 levels, bone involvement, KPS scores, primary tumor resection, bisphosphonates therapy and radiotherapy were identified as predictors of CSS. Four risk groups were stratified according to weighted scoring system, including low risk, medium risk, medium-high risk and high risk group, with 35, 16, 9 and 5 months of median CSS, respectively (P = 0.000). The risk stratification displayed good accuracy in predicting CSS, with acceptable discrimination and calibration.Conclusion: This novel risk stratification predicts CSS in CRC patient with BM using easily accessible clinicopathologic factors, which is recommended for use in individualized clinical decision making in patient with BM.

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