Variability of Saharan Cyclone Tracks, I: Climatology Study

Author(s):  
Abdulhaleem H. Labban ◽  
Adel M. Awad

Abstract Objectively, Saharan cyclones have been detected for the period from 1967 to 2019 using mean sea level pressure (SLP); their tracks have been specified from nearest neighbor cyclonic positions and classified into long/short tracks depending on the area of influence of the cyclones. Additionally, the detected long tracks have been objectively classified into five main routes directed generally eastward, northeastward and northward, accounting for approximately 41.6%, 19.7% and 30.4% of the total long tracks, respectively. Mainly for long tracks, three cyclogenesis areas, where more than 99% of cyclones are generated, were identified, with more than 61% generated in the Atlas region. Moreover, four far cyclolysis areas were identified, where approximately 74% of these cyclones terminated, with more than 66% of them terminating in the eastern study region. Furthermore, statistical analysis indicated that Saharan cyclones are commonly generated in the spring and summer, with ~35.3% and 46.3%, respectively. However, the highest numbers occur in spring in the northern Saharan and in summer in the southern Saharan, with ~49.1% and 57.7%, respectively. Temporally, the monthly distribution indicates that most of the cyclones moving along the five main routes are generated in warm months, namely, May to August. Approximately 85% of these cyclones have a lifespan of three days, while only 1% span more than five days.

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish Steptoe ◽  
Nicholas Henry Savage ◽  
Saeed Sadri ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Zubair Maalick ◽  
...  

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.


1991 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Antoinette Mélières ◽  
Patricia Martinerie ◽  
Dominique Raynaud ◽  
Louis Lliboutry

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 704-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Renaud Barbero ◽  
Nicholas J. Nauslar

Abstract Santa Ana winds (SAW) are among the most notorious fire-weather conditions in the United States and are implicated in wildfire and wind hazards in Southern California. This study employs large-scale reanalysis data to diagnose SAW through synoptic-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors using mean sea level pressure gradient and lower-tropospheric temperature advection, respectively. A two-parameter threshold model of these factors exhibits skill in identifying surface-based characteristics of SAW featuring strong offshore winds and extreme fire weather as viewed through the Fosberg fire weather index across Remote Automated Weather Stations in southwestern California. These results suggest that a strong northeastward gradient in mean sea level pressure aligned with strong cold-air advection in the lower troposphere provide a simple, yet effective, means of diagnosing SAW from synoptic-scale reanalysis. This objective method may be useful for medium- to extended-range forecasting when mesoscale model output may not be available, as well as being readily applied retrospectively to better understand connections between SAW and wildfires in Southern California.


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