New Results on Stock Prices and Fundamental Value

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas J. Lamdin
2004 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 461-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Becchetti ◽  
Fabrizio Adriani

2001 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas J. Lamdin

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 403-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stella N. Spilioti

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to use the Barberis et al. (1998)’s valuation model to calculate the fundamental value of a stock and examine whether the differences between predicted and realized stock prices are explained both by psychological factors (that affect investor reaction to information) and by key macroeconomic variables. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts a time-series analysis, as well as a panel data approach, to examine whether the price deviations from fundamental values are because of macroeconomic and psychological factors, using data from the London Stock Exchange. Findings The results indicate that these differences are explained by important macroeconomic variables, as well as by the sentiment of investors (that is used as a proxy of the psychological factors). Originality/value Based on the above results, this paper suggests that the price deviations from fundamental values are not treated as model estimation errors as proposed by Penman and Sougiannis (1998) but rather as deviations that are because of psychological factors, as well as to macroeconomic conditions.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Li ◽  
Jiahui Li ◽  
Jinjian Yuan

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impacts of short prohibitions on stock prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors adopt event study in this paper. First, the authors match each shortable stocks with one unshortable stocks by the propensity score matching method. Second, the authors check the performance difference between treatment group and control group after the event date. Third, the authors check the performance difference among sub-groups sorted by other factors associated with stock returns. Findings The authors find that stocks do not decline necessarily after removal of short prohibitions; only those heavily overpriced stocks, such as small stocks, lower B/M or P/E stocks and higher turnover stocks, decline significantly. Research limitations/implications The media falsely stated that short selling lead to market crash; otherwise, short selling is beneficial for improving market efficiency as it is helpful for keeping overpriced stocks in line with the fundamental value. Originality/value This is the first paper showing that removal of short prohibitions only impacts heavily overpriced stocks significantly, which is valuable for policy making.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuuki Maruyama

In this model, the stock price is determined by two variables: the fundamental value and the current risk preference of people. Suppose that the fundamental value follows Geometric Brownian motion and the function of the risk preference of people follows Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. There are only two types of asset: money (safe asset) and stocks (risk asset). In this case, the profit rate of equity investment is mean reverting, and long-term investment is more advantageous than short-term investment. The market is arbitrage-free. Also, based on this model, I suggest a solution to the Equity Premium Puzzle.


Author(s):  
Phan Khoa Cuong ◽  
Tran Thi Bich Ngoc ◽  
Bui Thanh Cong ◽  
Vo Thi Quynh Chau

<p><strong>Abstract: </strong>This paper investigates the existence of noise trader risk in Vietnam’s stock market and its effect on the daily returns of stock prices. The methodologies contain the estimation of GARCH (1,1) model to filter the residuals using the moving average method to calculate the impact of information traders. Noise trader risk or the risk that is caused by noise traders is derived by subtracting the residuals by the rational traders’ impact. We find that the noise trader risk does exist in Vietnam’s stock market and its impact on daily returns of stocks is unpredictable. Meanwhile, we find a positive impact of information traders on the stock returns. It increases the daily stock returns, and in turn, helps the market to correct itself because the stock prices move back to its fundamental value.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: noise trader risk, GARCH (1,1), Vietnam’s stock market</p>


Author(s):  
Claudia Guni

<p>The declared scope of this work is to highlight the main correlations between the monetary and the capital market, including identifying the adequate objective of monetary policy which might positively influence over the offer on the capital market. The main target of the monetary market consists in the stability of the prices. The link between monetary policy and stock market is extremely important. The stock prices are sensible to economical conditions. Moreover, these prices rapidly change, thus there is a chance for a deviation from the fundamental value, with side-effects for economy.</p>


Author(s):  
Felizia Arni Rudiawarni ◽  
I Made Narsa ◽  
Andry Irwanto

Stock crashes (jumps) capture extreme negative (positive) returns ) (Hutton et al., 2008; DeFond et al., 2015) and therefore have important implications for investors regarding their investment decisions they make. Investors make decisions based on the information they receive. Based on the value relevance literature, earnings are important information to determine the fundamental value of a firm (Beaver, 1968; Ball and Brown, 1968). The determination of accounting earnings is influenced by management policies. If management's policy in determining the amount of earnings is not appropriate, the quality of earnings as a representation of accounting information will decrease. Management's policy in determining earnings can be in the form of conservative or aggressive policies. Conservatism is divided into two types, namely conditional conservatism and unconditional conservatism (Beaver and Ryan, 2005; Basu, 2005). Conditional conservatism admits loss depending on the economic news, or ex-post conservatism. Conditional conservatism recognizes losses more timely than gains recognition (Basu, 1997), thus preventing managers from accumulating bad news (Kim and Zhang, 2016). The application of conditional conservatism causes undervaluation of the firm's stock price. Therefore, it is predicted that conditional conservatism will reduce the risk of future stock crashes. Unconditional conservatism records net assets at the lowest value since initial recognition or is said to be ex-ante conservatism (Beaver and Ryan, 2005). Unconditional conservatism prevents managers from admitting excessive net asset values (Kousenidis et al., 2014). However, unconditional conservatism is considered to create a hidden reserve ready to use when management is trying to pursue profit targets (Penman and Zhang, 2002; Ruch and Taylor, 2005). Therefore, unconditional conservatism is considered to increase the risk of future stock crashes. Accounting aggressiveness means recognizing gains more quickly and delaying recognition of losses (Battacharya et al., 2003) because of various personal motivations (Kothari, 2005). This accumulated bad news will at some point reverse and at that time, some bad news will flood the market immediately and make stock prices crash (Kim and Zhang, 2014). Therefore, accounting aggressiveness is predicted to increase the risk of future stock crashes. The conditions resulting from applying those accounting policies, affect the opposite in terms of stock jump. Studies contribute to the development of capital market researches. Keywords: conditional conservatism, unconditional conservatism, aggressive accounting, stock crash, stock jump


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