The Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: The Role of the Financial Channel

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron W Popp ◽  
Fang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects

THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ENHANCED REFORMS IN CHINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (06) ◽  
pp. 1619-1644
Author(s):  
ZHIHONG JIAN ◽  
YEQING YANG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects

Motivated by the idea that substantive reforms in China always happen intermittently and randomly, this paper constructs an RBC model, augmented with a shock that reflects the role of reforms and its randomly occurring character, to investigate the macroeconomic effects of enhancing the reform intensity. An increase in the average intensity of reforms leads to a higher economic growth rate permanently and provides sustainable support for economy when the potential growth rate declines. But it decreases the ergodic steady state of the detrended output, and this could have an adverse effect on economic growth in the short run.

Global Burden of Head and Neck Cancer: Economic Consequences, Health, and the Role of Surgery

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolvix H. Patterson ◽  
Victoria G. Fischman ◽  
Isaac Wasserman ◽  
Jennifer Siu ◽  
Mark G. Shrime ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Head And Neck Cancer ◽  
Head And Neck ◽  
Neck Cancer ◽  
Burden Of Disease ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Surgical Workforce ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
Disease Study

Objective We aimed to describe the mortality burden and macroeconomic effects of head and neck cancer as well as delineate the role of surgical workforce in improving head and neck cancer outcomes. Study Design Statistical and economic analysis. Setting Research group. Subjects and Methods We conducted a statistical analysis on data from the World Development Indicators and the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study to describe the relationship between surgical workforce and global head and neck cancer mortality-to-incidence ratios. A value of lost output model was used to project the global macroeconomic effects of head and neck cancer. Results Significant differences in mortality-to-incidence ratios existed between Global Burden of Disease study superregions. An increase of surgical, anesthetic, and obstetric provider density by 10% significantly correlated with a reduction of 0.76% in mortality-to-incidence ratio ( P < .0001; adjusted R2 = 0.84). There will be a projected global cumulative loss of $535 billion US dollars (USD) in economic output due to head and neck cancer between 2018 and 2030. Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania will suffer the greatest gross domestic product (GDP) losses at $180 billion USD, and South Asia will lose $133 billion USD. Conclusion The mortality burden of head and neck cancer is increasing and disproportionately affects those in low- and middle-income countries and regions with limited surgical workforces. This imbalance results in large and growing economic losses in countries that already face significant resource constraints. Urgent investment in the surgical workforce is necessary to ensure access to timely surgical services and reverse these negative trends.

scholarly journals Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Pascal Goemans
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Us ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
The Government

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use quarterly US data from 1960 to 2017 and employ the Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) to compute nonlinear generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs) to an orthogonalized government spending shock during tranquil and in uncertain times. The parsimonious design of the SEIVAR enables us to focus on extreme deciles of the uncertainty distribution and to control for the financing side of the government budget, monetary policy, financial frictions and consumer confidence.FindingsFiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times, but is contractionary during times of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. The results indicate an important role of the endogenous response of macroeconomic uncertainty. Investigating different government spending purposes, only increases in research and development expenditures reduce uncertainty and boost output during uncertain times.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to the literature in using a method which allows to control for a large set of confounding factors and accounts for the uncertainty response.

scholarly journals The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices

2002 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 87-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Hunt ◽  
Peter Isard ◽  
Douglas Laxton
Keyword(s):  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Permanent Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
Pass Through

The paper uses MULTIMOD to analyse the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, distinguishing between temporary, more persistent, and permanent shocks. It provides perspectives on several findings in the literature and the key role of monetary policy in influencing macroeconomic outcomes. Specific attention is paid to the channels through which oil price increases can pass through into core inflation, the implications of delayed policy responses, and the relative merits of leaning in different directions when the correct policy response is uncertain.

A direct measure of subjective business uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Glocker ◽  
Werner Hölzl
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Informational Content ◽  
Direct Measure ◽  
Uncertainty Measure ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Subjective Uncertainty ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Business Survey

Abstract We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations. Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of respondents directly.

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