Years of life lost estimates cannot always be taken at face value: Response to “COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study”

In their recent analysis, Hanlon et al. estimated the years of life lost (YLL) in people who have died with COVID-19 by following and expanding on the WHO standard approach. We welcome this research as an attempt to draw a more accurate picture of the mortality burden of this disease which has been involved in the deaths of more than 300,000 people worldwide as of May 2020. However, we argue that obtained YLL estimates (13 years for men and 11 years for women) are interpreted in a misleading way. Even with the presented efforts to control for the role of multimorbidity in COVID-19 deaths, these estimates cannot be interpreted to imply “how long someone who died from COVID-19 might otherwise have been expected to live”. By example we analyze the underlying problem which renders such an interpretation of YLL estimates impossible, and outline potential approaches to control for the problem.

Epidemiological waves - types, drivers and modulators in the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction: A discussion of 'waves' of the COVID-19 epidemic in different countries is a part of the national conversation for many, but there is no hard and fast means of delineating these waves in the available data and their connection to waves in the sense of mathematical epidemiology is only tenuous. Methods: We present an algorithm which processes a general time series to identify substantial, significant and sustained periods of increase in the value of the time series, which could reasonably be described as 'observed waves'. This provides an objective means of describing observed waves in time series. Results: The output of the algorithm as applied to epidemiological time series related to COVID-19 corresponds to visual intuition and expert opinion. Inspecting the results of individual countries shows how consecutive observed waves can differ greatly with respect to the case fatality ratio. Furthermore, in large countries, a more detailed analysis shows that consecutive observed waves have different geographical ranges. We also show how waves can be modulated by government interventions and find that early implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions correlates with a reduced number of observed waves and reduced mortality burden in those waves. Conclusion: It is possible to identify observed waves of disease by algorithmic methods and the results can be fruitfully used to analyse the progression of the epidemic.

The role of absolute humidity in respiratory mortality in Guangzhou, a hot and wet city of South China

Background For the reason that many studies have been inconclusive on the effect of humidity on respiratory disease, we examined the association between absolute humidity and respiratory disease mortality and quantified the mortality burden due to non-optimal absolute humidity in Guangzhou, China. Methods Daily respiratory disease mortality including total 42,440 deaths from 1 February 2013 to 31 December 2018 and meteorological data of the same period in Guangzhou City were collected. The distributed lag non-linear model was used to determine the optimal absolute humidity of death and discuss their non-linear lagged effects. Attributable fraction and population attributable mortality were calculated based on the optimal absolute humidity, defined as the minimum mortality absolute humidity. Results The association between absolute humidity and total respiratory disease mortality showed an M-shaped non-linear curve. In total, 21.57% (95% CI 14.20 ~ 27.75%) of respiratory disease mortality (9154 deaths) was attributable to non-optimum absolute humidity. The attributable fractions due to high absolute humidity were 13.49% (95% CI 9.56 ~ 16.98%), while mortality burden of low absolute humidity were 8.08% (95% CI 0.89 ~ 13.93%), respectively. Extreme dry and moist absolute humidity accounted for total respiratory disease mortality fraction of 0.87% (95% CI − 0.09 ~ 1.58%) and 0.91% (95% CI 0.25 ~ 1.39%), respectively. There was no significant gender and age difference in the burden of attributable risk due to absolute humidity. Conclusions Our study showed that both high and low absolute humidity are responsible for considerable respiratory disease mortality burden, the component attributed to the high absolute humidity effect is greater. Our results may have important implications for the development of public health measures to reduce respiratory disease mortality.

News Events and Their Relationship With US Vape Sales: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Objective News coverage around vaping-related events may have furthered misconceptions regarding the relative harms of vapes. Such information may influence the decisions of individuals who smoke, around switching to vaping, potentially affecting the overall tobacco mortality burden. Thus, it is prudent to study how news events (e.g., 2019 vaping illness epidemic) are associated with vape sales in the United States, to possibly reduce the tobacco mortality burden. Methods We used weekly retail sales data for e-cigarettes (30 December 2018 - 28 December 2019) from the US retail scanner data compiled by the Nielsen Company. We used an interrupted time series design with segmented regression analysis to determine immediate and longer-term impacts of individual news events (e.g. Trump administration's planned ban on flavored vaping products) on vape sales, controlling for pre-existing trends.Results Unexpectedly, we noted a statistically significant positive relationship between vape sales and the CDC announcing an investigation into vaping-related illnesses (Change: 6.59%, Estimate: 0.064; 95% CI: 0.036, 0.092; P<0.001). We also observed a similar positive association between vape sales and the CDC's announcement on the link between Vitamin E acetate and EVALI (Change: 2.93%, Estimate: 0.029; 95% CI: 0.003, 0.055; P<0.05). There was a steep decline in sales after these events.ConclusionsNews events are associated with US vape sales. Findings have implications for the management of risk perceptions around vaping to improve health outcomes of tobacco users. Information-based policy instruments can be applied to balance the effects of news events that may influence vape sales.

Hypochlorous Acid-Generating Electrochemical Catheter Prototype for Prevention of Intraluminal Infection

Catheter-related infections constitute an economic and mortality burden in health care. Several options are available to reduce the risk of infection, but only a few focus on preventing intraluminal infection, which occurs in long-term catheters, most often used for dialysis, prolonged treatment, or chemotherapy.

High body-mass index and mortality from cardiometabolic diseases in Peru: a comparative risk assessment analysis

Background: High body-mass index (BMI) is a major contributor to the global burden of cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) like type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). We aimed to quantify the mortality burden associated with high BMI in Peru to inform policies and set priorities. Methods: We computed population attributable fractions (PAF) combining BMI prevalence estimates from the Peruvian Demographic and Health Survey and relative risks between high BMI and CMD mortality from the GBD 2019 Study. PAFs were multiplied by the CMD deaths recorded in the national death registry to obtain the absolute number of CMD deaths attributable to high BMI in each region, sex and five-year age group. Results: In 2018, the absolute number of T2DM deaths attributable to high BMI in Peru was 1,376 (50.3%) in men and 1,663 (56.0%) in women; the absolute number of CVD deaths related to high BMI was 1,665 in men (23.6%) and 1,551 (24.7%) in women. Most CMD deaths related to high BMI were attributable to obesity class 1 and overweight. Regions with the highest proportions of CMD deaths related to high BMI were in the Amazon (Madre de Dios, Ucayali) and the Coast (Tacna, Moquegua); conversely, regions with the lowest proportions were in the Highlands (Huancavelica, Apurimac). Conclusions: High BMI is a major contributor to the CMD mortality burden in Peru, with high variability across regions. Health policies need to be strengthened to reduce BMI at the population level, which may have a subsequent reduction in the associated CMD mortality.

Estimating the mortality burden of large scale mining projects—Evidence from a prospective mortality surveillance study in Tanzania

We set up a mortality surveillance system around two of the largest gold mines in Tanzania between February 2019 and February 2020 to estimate the mortality impact of gold mines. Death circumstances were collected using a standardized verbal autopsy tool, and causes of death were assigned using the InSilicoVA algorithm. We compared cause-specific mortality fractions in mining communities with other subnational data as well as national estimates. Within mining communities, we estimated mortality risks of mining workers relative to other not working at mines. At the population level, mining communities had higher road-traffic injuries (RTI) (risk difference (RD): 3.1%, Confidence Interval (CI): 0.4%, 5.9%) and non-HIV infectious disease mortality (RD: 5.6%, CI: 0.8%, 10.3%), but lower burden of HIV mortality (RD: -5.9%, CI: -10.2%, -1.6%). Relative to non-miners living in the same communities, mining workers had over twice the mortality risk (relative risk (RR): 2.09, CI: 1.57, 2.79), with particularly large increases for death due to RTIs (RR: 14.26, CI: 4.95, 41.10) and other injuries (RR:10.10, CI: 3.40, 30.02). Our results shows that gold mines continue to be associated with a large mortality burden despite major efforts to ensure the safety in mining communities. Given that most of the additional mortality risk appears to be related to injuries programs targeting these specific risks seem most desirable.

Past and Present Approaches to Diagnosis of Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis disease continues to contribute to the mortality burden globally. Due to the several shortcomings of the available diagnostic methods, tuberculosis disease continues to spread. The difficulty to obtain sputum among the very ill patients and the children also affects the quick diagnosis of tuberculosis disease. These challenges warrant investigating different sample types that can provide results in a short time. Highlighted in this review are the approved pulmonary tuberculosis diagnostic methods and ongoing research to improve its diagnosis. We used the PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews to search for studies that met the selection criteria for this review. In this review we found out that enormous biosignature research is ongoing to identify host biomarkers that can be used as predictors of active PTB disease. On top of this, more research was also being done to improve already existing diagnostic tests. Host markers required more optimization for use in different settings given their varying sensitivity and specificity in PTB endemic and non-endemic settings.