Statistically significant? Let us recognize that estimates of tested effects are uncertain

Haven’t all of us dreamt of concluding that our results be statistically significant, that is, characterized by a p-value lying below an arbitrary threshold, most often [Formula: see text]? In this article, we, first, deplore that p has been largely misunderstood, and that its misinterpretation has entailed a fallacious dichotomization and an understatement of the uncertainty prevailing about the effect tested. Next, we introduce and explain a brand-new – direct – measure of the plausibility of the effect under study. Then, we illustrate the relevance of this indicator by revisiting a recently published marketing research case. We also insist on the necessity to contextualize it, using complementary credibility intervals graphically contrasted. Beyond making researchers aware of the exact meaning of test-related probabilities, the delineated approach invites them to formulate their inferences with prudence and modesty acknowledging how uncertain these are.

The Development of Cognate Awareness in Child Second/Third Language Learners of French in French Immersion: The Effects of Orthographic Overlap and Cognate Status

Purpose Our 1-year longitudinal study tracked the development of cognate awareness among second (L2) and third language (L3) learners of French in French immersion in Grades 1 and 2 to explore the impact of orthographic overlap and cognate status (true vs. false) on children's ability to recognize cognate relationships. We also assessed the impact of French L2/L3 status on performance. Method We compared performance on three conditions (true cognates with same and similar spellings, false cognates with same spellings) within and across grades. We used a direct measure of cognate awareness that required children ( n = 81) to distinguish true from false cognates presented orally and in print. Results Overall, Grade 1 children failed to recognize cognate relationships between true cognates with similar spellings, but successfully recognized true cognates with same spellings. Performance on all conditions increased significantly between Grades 1 and 2. The greatest improvement was seen on true cognates with similar spellings. Performance on false cognates was inferior to performance on true cognates with same spellings in Grade 1, and inferior to performance on both same and similar spelled true cognates in Grade 2. No differences were found due to L2/L3 status. Conclusions Among sequential learners of L2/L3 French in the early stages of additional language learning, cognate awareness is impacted by the degree of orthographic overlap, as well as by cognate status. Children's ability to recognize cross-language orthographic and semantic relationships improves substantially across the early elementary grades. Supplemental Material https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.16821106

Breeding for Resilience to Water Deficit and Its Predicted Effect on Forage Mass in Tall Fescue

Resilience is increasingly part of the discussion on climate change, yet there is a lack of breeding for resilience per se. This experiment examined the genetic parameters of a novel, direct measure of resilience to water deficit in tall fescue (Lolium arundinaceum (Schreb.) Darbysh.). Heritability, genetic correlations, and predicted gain from selection were estimated for average productivity, resilience, and stability based on forage mass of a tall fescue half-sib population grown under a line-source irrigation system with five different water levels (WL). Resilience was both measurable and moderately heritable (h2 = 0.43), with gains of 2.7 to 3.1% per cycle of selection predicted. Furthermore, resilience was not correlated with average response over environments and negatively correlated with stability, indicating that it was not a measure of responsiveness to more favorable environments. Genetic correlations among WL ranged from 0.87 to 0.56, however in contrast, resilience was either not or slightly negatively genetically correlated with WL except for moderate correlations with the ‘crisis’ WL. Thus, breeding for improved resilience was predicted to have little effect on forage mass at any given individual water deficit environment. Overall, results indicated that this novel metric could facilitate breeding for improved resilience per se to water deficit environments.

Direct Measure Matching for Crowd Counting

Traditional crowd counting approaches usually use Gaussian assumption to generate pseudo density ground truth, which suffers from problems like inaccurate estimation of the Gaussian kernel sizes. In this paper, we propose a new measure-based counting approach to regress the predicted density maps to the scattered point-annotated ground truth directly. First, crowd counting is formulated as a measure matching problem. Second, we derive a semi-balanced form of Sinkhorn divergence, based on which a Sinkhorn counting loss is designed for measure matching. Third, we propose a self-supervised mechanism by devising a Sinkhorn scale consistency loss to resist scale changes. Finally, an efficient optimization method is provided to minimize the overall loss function. Extensive experiments on four challenging crowd counting datasets namely ShanghaiTech, UCF-QNRF, JHU++ and NWPU have validated the proposed method.

A direct measure of subjective business uncertainty

We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations. Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of respondents directly.

An Exploratory Psychometric Network Analysis of Loneliness Scales in a Sample of Older Adults.

Objectives: To examine the relationships within and between commonly used measures ofloneliness to determine the suitability of the measures in older adults. Further, todetermine items of key importance to the measurement of loneliness. Methods: Data wereobtained from 350 older adults via completion of an online survey. Four measures ofloneliness were completed. These were the UCLA Loneliness scale (Version 3), the de JongGierveld Loneliness Scale, the Social and Emotional Loneliness Scale for Adults (ShortVersion) and a direct measure of loneliness. Results: Analysis via a regularized partialcorrelation network and via clique percolation revealed that only the SELSA-Sencompassed loneliness relating to deficits in social, family and romantic relationships. Theremaining measures tapped mostly into social loneliness alone. The direct measure ofloneliness had the strongest connection to the UCLA item-4 and the de Jong Giervelditem-1 exhibited the strongest bridge centrality, being a member of the most clusters.Discussion: The results indicate that should researchers be interested in assessingloneliness resulting from specific relationships, then the SELSA-S would be the mostsuitable measure. Whereas the other measures are suitable for assessing loneliness moregenerally. The results further suggest that the de Jong Gierveld item-1 may be a moresuitable direct measure of loneliness than that currently employed as it taps into a greaternumber of relationships.

Authoritarianism and Attitudes Toward Welfare Recipients Under Covid-19 Shock

This paper has looked at the evolution of attitudes toward welfare recipients and the impact of authoritarian dispositions on these attitudes in the context of the Covid-19 health crisis. We used two representative surveys, the first (n = 2,054) conducted in the summer of 2019 and the second (n = 2,060) in Quebec in June 2020, near the end of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in the province. One thousand one hundred and seventy eight participants in the second survey had also participated in the first, allowing to analyze potential movement among many of the same individuals. Overall, while our results clearly indicated that authoritarian dispositions were associated with more negative views of welfare recipients, the pandemic does not appear to have affected the relationship between these attitudes and authoritarian traits. Additionally, we found no evidence that a direct measure of perceived threat moderated the relation between authoritarianism and attitude toward welfare recipients. Yet, we did find that, in the context of the pandemic, authoritarianism was associated with the attribution of lower deservingness scores to welfare recipients who were fit for work, suggesting that authoritarianism interacts with an important deservingness heuristic when evaluating who deserves to be helped.