Analysis of Staple Food Price Behaviour: Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Model

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kumara Jati ◽  
Gamini Premaratne
Keyword(s):  
Garch Model ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Staple Food

scholarly journals Food Price Volatility and Asymmetries in Rural Areas of South Mediterranean Countries: A Copula-Based GARCH Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 5855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Capitanio ◽  
Giorgia Rivieccio ◽  
Felice Adinolfi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Food Price ◽  
System Structure ◽  
World Population ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The World

Many discussions following the 2007/08 food price crisis have revolved around the magnitude of the negative impacts that it may have had on food security worldwide. In South-Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC), food security is strongly interrelated with several key economic and political issues. Many of these countries are becoming increasingly import-dependent, particularly on cereals, which are the essential raw material for human and animal food and feed. Due to both their economic system structure and consumption, the SEMC are responsible for a third of world cereals imports, whereas they account for only 5% of the world population. Given the set of constraints and this dependence on global markets, SEMC will be probably more exposed to severe swings in agricultural commodity prices in the coming years. In this view, this study examines the dependence structure among global food grain markets and Morocco and provides flexible models for dependency and the conditional volatility GARCH. A copula-based GARCH model has been carried out to estimate the marginal distributions of Morocco and world cereals commodity price changes. The results revealed that the joint co-movement between agricultural commodity price changes around the world and in Morocco, are generally considerable and there exists asymmetric tail dependence.

Food price volatility and socio-inequalities in household food insecurity during coronavirus disease-2019 lockdown in Nansana municipality, Wakiso district Uganda

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Buzigi ◽  
Stephen Onakuse
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Household Food Insecurity ◽  
Staple Food ◽  
Household Food

Abstract BackgroundThis study assessed staple food price volatility, food consumption scores (FCS) and prevalence of household food insecurity (HHFI) and its socio-inequalities during enforcing and lifting corona virus disease -2019 (COVID-19) lockdown in Nansana municipality, Uganda.MethodsA repeated households (HHs) based cross-sectional study was conducted in urban Nansana Municipality, Uganda. A total of 405 HHs (205 slum and 200 non-slum) were selected using stratified random sampling. Data on social demographics and FCS in the previous 7 days were collected using questionnaire-based telephone interviews with HH heads. Prices for staple foods was collected by asking food sellers from local markets. Mean staple food price differences between before COVID-19 lockdown and during enforcing or lifting the lockdown was tested by paired t test. A binary outcome of HHFI (FCS of 0-35) and food secure (FCS>35) HHs was created. The association between exposure variables and HHFI was tested using multivariate logistic regression analysis at a probability value of 5%.ResultsMean price of staple food significantly increased between before and during enforcing the COVID-19 lockdown (p <0.0001). Mean FCS during COVID-19 lockdown were at borderline for either slum (22.8) or non-slum (22.9) HHs, and were not significantly different from each other (p=0.06). During partial lifting of the lockdown, FCS among slum HHs were significantly lower at 20.1 (poor) compared to non-slum HHs at 22.7 (borderline) (p=0.01). The mean FCS was significantly higher at borderline (24.5) among HHs that received food aid compared to poor FCS (18.2) among slum HHs that did not receive food aid (p<0.0001). The prevalence of HHFI was high and not significantly different (p>0.05) between slum (94.6%) and non-slum (93.5%) HHs during COVID-19 lockdown. HHFI was higher in slum (98.5%) than non-slum (94%) HHs (p<0.05) on partial lifting of the lockdown. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) showed that being a wage earner and employed HH head was positively (AOR: 8.3, 95% CI: 1.9-36.2) and negatively (AOR: 0.07, CI: 0.02-0.2) associated with HHFI, respectively. During partial lifting of COVID-19 lockdown, slum HHs (AOR: 11.8, 95% CI: 1.5-91.3), female headed HHs (AOR: 11.9, 95%CI: 1.5-92.7), wage earners (AOR: 10.7, 95% CI: 1.4-82.9) and tenants (AOR: 4.0, 95% CI: 1.1- 14.7) were positively associated with HHFI. Conclusion Staple food prices increased during enforcing COVID-19 lockdown compared before lockdown. Food aid distribution during COVID-19 lockdown improved FCS among slum HHs, however, it did not prevent against slum HHFI.

scholarly journals The Impact of Food Price Crises on the Demand for Nutrients in Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-327
Author(s):  
Nadia Shabnam ◽  
Fabio Gaetano Santeramo ◽  
Zahid Asghar ◽  
Antonio Seccia
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Nutritional Status ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Staple Food ◽  
The Impact

The global economic crisis in 2007–2008 resulted in a tremendous food price increase that is likely to have adversely affected the food security and nutritional status in many developing countries. Understanding how nutritional intakes may have changed as a result of the food price crisis is important, especially for Pakistan, the country under scrutiny which, despite of being a large producer of staple food, suffers from severe problems of undernourishment. We used two survey rounds, 2005–2006 and 2010–2011, to investigate how calorie and macronutrient intakes have evolved. The analysis was carried out with the use of a time varying model and is enriched by an in-depth investigation for different quantiles. The results show that food security deteriorated because of the food price crisis. In the light of this outcome, policy implications are discussed.

Country and regional staple food price indices for improved identification of food insecurity

2012 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 784-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.E. Brown ◽  
F. Tondel ◽  
T. Essam ◽  
J.A. Thorne ◽  
B.F. Mann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Staple Food ◽  
Price Indices

scholarly journals Price volatility of staple food using ARCH-GARCH model

2021 ◽  
Vol 653 (1) ◽  
pp. 012146
Author(s):  
I Setiawati ◽  
Ardiansyah ◽  
R Taufikurohman
Keyword(s):  
Garch Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Staple Food

scholarly journals Analysis of Indonesian and Chinese Garlic Volatility Prices

2019 ◽  
pp. 197-207
Author(s):  
Marina Ayuningtyas ◽  
Sri Hartoyo ◽  
Sri Mulatsih
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
World Market ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Price Uncertainty ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Price Data ◽  
The World

The need for garlic consumption in Indonesia tends to increase without being matched by increased production, which causes Indonesia to import garlic by 95 percent of total domestic needs. Garlic imports tend to increase, causing the price of local garlic to be higher than the price of imported garlic, so consumers prefer imported garlic products over local garlic products. This causes farmers to face the risk of uncertainty (unpredictable) on prices, where price fluctuations are difficult to predict. In order to cope with price fluctuations and to maintain food price stability that remains accessible to consumers, it is necessary to conduct research on the analysis of the price volatility of garlic, so that price uncertainty can be overcome. This study aims to analyze price volatility in the garlic market in Indonesia and China using time series price data between January 2012 and September 2019. The method used is the ARCH/GARCH model. The results showed price volatility at producer level, imported garlic retailers, and the world market (China).

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