scholarly journals Comonotonic Approximations to Quantiles of Life Annuity Conditional Expected Present Values: Extensions to General Arima Models and Comparison with the Bootstrap

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 331-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Denuit ◽  
S. Haberman ◽  
A.E. Renshaw
Keyword(s):  
Arima Models ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Time Index ◽  
Life Annuity ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Path

AbstractThis paper aims to provide accurate approximations for the quantiles of the conditional expected present value of the payments made by the annuity provider, given the future path of the Lee-Carter time index. Conditional cohort and period life expectancies are also considered. The paper also addresses some associated simulation issues, which, hitherto, have been unresolved.

The Valuation Relevance of Reversing Deferred Tax Liabilities

2004 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
pp. 437-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Guenther ◽  
Richard C. Sansing
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Depreciation Rate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Deferred Tax Liabilities ◽  
Deferred Tax ◽  
Tax Depreciation ◽  
Depreciation Methods

This paper compares two attributes of a deferred tax liability (DTL) that arise from differences in book and tax depreciation methods. The first attribute is the effect of the DTL on the market value of the firm. The second is the length of time between when the asset is placed into service and when the DTL associated with that asset begins to reverse. The paper shows that a decrease in the time it takes for the DTL to begin to reverse is neither necessary nor sufficient for the value of the DTL to increase. It also shows that the value of the DTL is not equal to the present value of the future deferred tax expense. The effect of one dollar of DTL on firm value depends only on the tax depreciation rate and the discount rate.

Applications of Operations Research in Human Resource Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1611-1614
Author(s):  
Vanya Aggarwal
Keyword(s):  
Human Resource Management ◽  
Human Resource ◽  
Real World ◽  
Operations Research ◽  
Operational Research ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
External World ◽  
Future Plan ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Path

Abstract: Operational HR encompasses the highly visible, day-to-day tactical operations required to keep a workforce running. This made us look for strategic approaches essential for most organisations. Be it defining the future path, determining the future plan, mission, vision, planning, objectives and goals of a particular organization. In a nutshell, we wanted to bring out the intricate relationship between HR and operational research especially considering the current dynamics of the external world. The unprecedented changes in HRM made us dig deeper on the importance of the role and applications of operations research to cope with these changes. Finally, we believed our research was complete when we presented real-world examples, and it was demonstrated to us that Operations Research approaches may assist firms in making good HR policy decisions at a low cost

Forecasting and Technical Comparison of Inflation in Turkey With Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Models and the Artificial Neural Network

2022 ◽  
pp. 1194-1216
Author(s):  
Erkan Işığıçok ◽  
Ramazan Öz ◽  
Savaş Tarkun
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Future ◽  
Alternative Techniques ◽  
Artificial Neural

Inflation refers to an ongoing and overall comprehensive increase in the overall level of goods and services price in the economy. Today, inflation, which is attempted to be kept under control by central banks or, in the same way, whose price stability is attempted, consists of continuous price changes that occur in all the goods and services used by the consumers. Undoubtedly, in terms of economy, in addition to the realized inflation, inflation expectations are also gaining importance. This situation requires forecasting the future rates of inflation. Therefore, reliable forecasting of the future rates of inflation in a country will determine the policies to be applied by the decision-makers in the economy. The aim of this study is to predict inflation in the next period based on the consumer price index (CPI) data with two alternative techniques and to examine the predictive performance of these two techniques comparatively. Thus, the first of the two main objectives of the study are to forecast the future rates of inflation with two alternative techniques, while the second is to compare the two techniques with respect to statistical and econometric criteria and determine which technique performs better in comparison. In this context, the 9-month inflation in April-December 2019 was forecast by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), using the CPI data which consist of 207 data from January 2002 to March 2019 and the predictive performance of both techniques was examined comparatively. It was observed that the results obtained from both techniques were close to each other.

scholarly journals Longevity Risk Measurement of Life Annuity Products

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Pauline Milaure Ngugnie Diffouo ◽  
Pierre Devolder
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Solvency Ii ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Risk Measurement ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Life Annuity ◽  
The Future ◽  
Solvency Capital ◽  
The Mean

This paper captures and measures the longevity risk generated by an annuity product. The longevity risk is materialized by the uncertain level of the future liability compared to the initially foretasted or expected value. Herein we compute the solvency capital (SC) of an insurer selling such a product within a single risk setting for three different life annuity products. Within the Solvency II framework, we capture the mortality of policyholders by the mean of the Hull–White model. Using the numerical analysis, we identify the product that requires the most SC from an insurer and the most profitable product for a shareholder. For policyholders we identify the cheapest product by computing the premiums and the most profitable product by computing the benefit levels. We further study how sensitive the SC is with respect to some significant parameters.

scholarly journals 2New Estimates of the Future Path of 401(k) Assets

2008 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
James M. Poterba ◽  
Steven F. Venti ◽  
David A. Wise
Keyword(s):  
The Future ◽  
Future Path

What is the Future Path of Recovery for Excessive Psychic Hotline Callers?

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1039-1046
Author(s):  
Robin-Marie Shepherd ◽  
Michael Vacaru
Keyword(s):  
The Future ◽  
Future Path

scholarly journals New Estimates of the Future Path of 401(k) Assets

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Poterba ◽  
Steven Venti ◽  
David Wise
Keyword(s):  
The Future ◽  
Future Path

Bonus Reserve Valuations

1908 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-177
Author(s):  
C. R. V. Coutts
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Method ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
General Question ◽  
Actuarial Science ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Alternative Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Subject

The question whether the net premium method of valuation, now almost universally adopted by offices distributing their profits in the form of reversionary bonuses, should be regarded as a final and scientific method of ascertaining divisible profits or as merely a temporary expedient which must, in the words of Mr. Sorley, “inevitably disappear before the advance of true actuarial science”, is one which has frequently engaged the attention of actuaries. The importance of the subject is so great to all connected with the administration of Life offices that in the hope of provoking an interesting and useful discussion on the general question, I venture to submit the following notes on an alternative method of valuation, based on a suggestion by Mr. Manly (in the discussion on Mr. Warner's paper on the Net Premium Method of Valuation reported in the 37th volume of the Journal, p. 57), that in the valuation balance sheet the present value of the bonus at the rate to be declared at a given valuation should be treated as a liability for the future existence of the policies.As the alternative method is, to some extent, based on the original principles of the net premium method, I propose, as briefly as possible, to summarize the modifications which have been introduced in the last 30 years in the principles and application of the net premium method.

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