scholarly journals Floods in Siberia: geographical and statistical analysis for the period of climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia V. Kichigina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Current Position ◽  
Snow Melting ◽  
Natural Factor ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Runoff Analysis ◽  
The Impact

In Siberia, floods are one of dangerous natural disaster. The danger of floods varies under the climatic and anthropogenic changes, as well as socio-economic development. The aim was to study the current position of problems associated with flood hazard. A key to understanding the flood situation is geographical and statistical analysis of the floods for the period of climate change (1985-2019). Such analyzes addresses the following aspects: study of flood genesis and recurrence, the severity of the impact for floods of different genesis; maxima runoff analysis as the principal cause of floods; analysis of the spatial distribution of settlements vulnerable to flooding; analysis of the ice jams and ice dams as a specific natural factor causing the floods in Siberia; assessment of the degree of danger, and identification of areas with the different integral flood danger. In Siberia, more than 1400 settlements are flooded at regular intervals. Most of them are concentrated in the southern, most developed territories in the Ob, Tom and Yeniseiy basins. In Siberia, rainfall, mixed (from snow melting with rainfall) and ice-dam floods are the most dangerous. They have the highest recurrence and severity of the impact. The greatest floods risk is in the most populated and economically developed southern regions within the Ob, Lena and Yenisey rivers and Lake Baikal basins. Territories with the highest risk of floods were determined. For the Baikal region, one of the most developed territories of Siberia, the flood hazard was determined for all administrative districts. Flood hazard maps for Siberian regions can be the basis for developing the flood adaptation strategies.

Assessing the global risk of climate change to re/insurers using catastrophe models and hazard maps

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Jones ◽  
Emma Raven ◽  
Jane Toothill
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The Impact

<p>In 2018 worldwide natural catastrophe losses were estimated at around USD $155 billion, resulting in the fourth-highest insurance payout on sigma records, and in 2020 JBA Risk Management (JBA) estimate 2 billion people will be at risk to inland flooding. By 2100, under a 1.5°C warming scenario, the cost of coastal flooding alone as a result of sea level rise could reach USD $10.2 trillion per year, assuming no further adaptation. It is therefore imperative to understand the impact climate change may have on global flood risk and insured losses in the future.</p><p>The re/insurance industry has an important role to play in providing financial resilience in a changing climate. Although integrating climate science into financial business remains in its infancy, modelling companies like JBA are increasingly developing new data and services to help assess the potential impact of climate change on insurance exposure.</p><p>We will discuss several approaches to incorporating climate change projections with flood risk data using examples from research collaborations and commercial projects. Our case studies will include: (1) building a national-scale climate change flood model through the application of projected changes in river flow, rainfall and sea level to the stochastic event set in the model, and (2) using Global Climate Model data to adjust hydrological inputs driving 2D hydraulic models to develop climate change flood hazard maps.</p><p>These tools provide outputs to meet different needs, and results may sometimes invoke further questions. For example: how can an extreme climate scenario produce lower flood risk than a conservative one? Why may adjacent postcodes' flood risk differ? We will explore the challenges associated with interpreting these results and the potential implications for the re/insurance industry.</p>

scholarly journals The large-scale impact of climate change to Mississippi flood hazard in New Orleans

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. L. A. Driessen ◽  
M. van Ledden
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
High Flows ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The objective of this paper was to describe the impact of climate change on the Mississippi River flood hazard in the New Orleans area. This city has a unique flood risk management challenge, heavily influenced by climate change, since it faces flood hazards from multiple geographical locations (e.g. Lake Pontchartrain and Mississippi River) and multiple sources (hurricane, river, rainfall). Also the low elevation and significant subsidence rate of the Greater New Orleans area poses a high risk and challenges the water management of this urban area. Its vulnerability to flooding became dramatically apparent during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 with huge economic losses and a large number of casualties. A SOBEK Rural 1DFLOW model was set up to simulate the general hydrodynamics. This model included the two important spillways that are operated during high flow conditions. A weighted multi-criteria calibration procedure was performed to calibrate the model for high flows. Validation for floods in 2011 indicated a reasonable performance for high flows and clearly demonstrated the influence of the spillways. 32 different scenarios were defined which included the relatively large sea level rise and the changing discharge regime that is expected due to climate change. The impact of these scenarios on the water levels near New Orleans were analysed by the hydrodynamic model. Results showed that during high flows New Orleans will not be affected by varying discharge regimes, since the presence of the spillways ensures a constant discharge through the city. In contrary, sea level rise is expected to push water levels upwards. The effect of sea level rise will be noticeable even more than 470 km upstream. Climate change impacts necessitate a more frequent use of the spillways and opening strategies that are based on stages.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in Eastern Nepal: A Presentation of the Project Methodology taking into Account the Various Origins of Water

2012 ◽  
pp. 12-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivia Aubriot ◽  
Joëlle Smadja ◽  
Yves Arnaud ◽  
Pierre Chevallier ◽  
François Delclaux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Snow Melting ◽  
Socio Economic Impact ◽  
Koshi Basin ◽  
Landscape Units ◽  
Different Origins ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
The Impact

The paper reflects the main methodological aspects of the PAPRIKA Project based on the following objectives: (i) to contribute to a more accurate assessment of glacier retreat, snow cover and climate change in Koshi Basin, Nepal; (ii) to have a better understanding of the contribution of glacier and snow melting to water availability; (iii) to correlate the results with local people's perceptions of climate change and their socio-economic impact. For this, the paper:highlights the fact that the water used by the population comes from different origins (glacier melting, snow melting, frost, rain) the combination of which varies between the four main landscape units: high, middle and low mountains, and finally the Terai plain;describes the methodology adopted to observe and analyse current as well as future environmental changes in the atmosphere, cryosphere and hydrosphere;shows that, for each origin, different reasons may explain the changes in water availability, and thus the impact on agriculture and the different water usages.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7197 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.12-17

scholarly journals Flood and Flash Flood Hazard Mapping Using the Frequency Ratio, Multilayer Perceptron and Their Hybrid Ensemble

Proceedings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Mihnea Cristian Popa ◽  
Daniel Constantin Diaconu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Ratio ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Scientific World ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
The Impact

The importance of identifying the areas vulnerable for both floods and flash-floods is an important component of risk management. The assessment of vulnerable areas is a major challenge in the scientific world. Adaptation and mitigation have generally been treated as two separate issues, both in public politics and in practice, in which mitigation is seen as the attenuation of the cause, and studies of adaption look into dealing with the consequences of climate change. Studies on the impact of climate change on flood risk are mostly conducted at the river basin or regional scale. Remote sensing and GIS technologies, together with the latest modelling techniques, can contribute to our ability to predict and manage floods. Various methods are commonly used to map flood sensitivity. Recent methods such as multicriteria evaluation, decision tree analysis (DT), fuzzy theory, weight of samples (WoE), artificial neural networks (ANN), frequency ratio (FR) and logistic regression (LR) approaches have been widely used by many researchers.

scholarly journals A Multi-Hazard Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Bridge Failure Risk Considering Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 271 ◽  
pp. 01006
Author(s):  
Omid khandel ◽  
Mohamed Soliman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Temperature Profiles ◽  
Probabilistic Framework ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has recently been recognized as a significant factor that can drive changes to current design and life-cycle assessment practices of infrastructure systems. The instability in temperature profiles and precipitation patterns in recent decades indicate that the future flood hazard occurrence rate may not necessarily follow historical trends. In addition to the impact of climate change on flood hazard occurrence rate and the associated scour progression, it could also affect the corrosion propagation in structural components. This paper presents a probabilistic framework for quantifying the multi-hazard failure risk of bridges under gradual and sudden deterioration considering climate change. Downscaled climate data adopted from the global climate models are employed to predict the future streamflow and temperature profiles at a given location. These profiles are subsequently used to quantify future failure probability and risk under corrosion and flood hazard. The proposed framework is illustrated on an existing bridge located in Oklahoma.

scholarly journals Building hazard maps with differentiated risk perception for flood impact assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2647-2663
Author(s):  
Punit K. Bhola ◽  
Jorge Leandro ◽  
Markus Disse
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Flood Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps

Abstract. In operational flood risk management, a single best model is used to assess the impact of flooding, which might misrepresent uncertainties in the modelling process. We have used quantified uncertainties in flood forecasting to generate flood hazard maps that were combined based on different exceedance probability scenarios. The purpose is to differentiate the impacts of flooding depending on the building use, enabling, therefore, more flexibility for stakeholders' variable risk perception profiles. The aim of the study is thus to develop a novel methodology that uses a multi-model combination of flood forecasting models to generate flood hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability. These maps take into account uncertainties stemming from the rainfall–runoff generation process and could be used by decision makers for a variety of purposes in which the building use plays a significant role, e.g. flood impact assessment, spatial planning, early warning and emergency planning.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Flood Hazard at Airports on Pacific Islands: A Case Study of Faleolo International Airport, Samoa

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-362
Author(s):  
Lianhui Wu ◽  
Kenji Taniguchi ◽  
Yoshimitsu Tajima ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Fringing Reef ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
International Airport ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is believed to have increased the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall, and also to have caused sea level rises over this century and beyond. There is widespread concern that small-island nations are particularly vulnerable to increasing risk of inland flood due to such climate change. Understanding the impact of climate change on flood hazard is of great importance for these countries for the development of better protection and adaptation strategies. This study conducted a case study focusing on the impact of climate change on flood hazard at Faleolo International Airport (FIA), Samoa. FIA is a typical small islands airport, located on the lowland along the coast fronted by a fringing reef. Annual maximum daily rainfalls for different return periods were first estimated for the present and future climate around FIA. The estimated rainfalls were input as the forcing of a two-dimensional flood inundation model to investigate the flooding behavior and effectiveness of probable drainage systems. Results showed that a part of the runway can be inundated under heavy rainfall. Construction of drainage pipes significantly contributes to reducing the flood hazard level. Sensitivity analysis showed that the astronomical tide level has relatively little influence on the performance of the drainage system, while the combination of sea level rise and the sea level anomaly induced by stormy waves on the fringing reef could have non-negligible impacts on the drainage system. Location of the drainage pipe is also important to effectively mitigate flooding. The time-concentration of torrential rainfall may also significantly impact the overall performance of the drainage system.

The impact of using bias-corrected precipitation in estimating extreme discharge: A study over the Italian Territory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Fabio Di Sante ◽  
Francesca Raffaele ◽  
Rita Nogherotto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Flood Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Italian Territory

<p>A common way to study the impact of climate change on water resources is through hydrological models fed by precipitation from global or regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs, respectively). However, precipitation from climate models is usually affected by systematical biases that may produce inadequate streamflow estimations. For this reason, users find it necessary to apply some bias-corrected technique to reduce errors in precipitation before its use in hydrological simulations. Among the different methods, quantile mapping (QM) is a widely used method as it has shown satisfactory results for historical conditions.</p><p>In recent years, several studies have investigated the QM method, with a focus on mean precipitations. However, it remains quite uncertain how bias-corrected precipitation modifies river discharges, particularly the extreme discharges on a sub-daily timescale. In this framework, this study aims to quantify differences between simulated river discharges using corrected and uncorrected precipitation to feed a hydrological model in the context of flood hazard assessment in Italy.</p><p>To adequately estimate flood events, high spatiotemporal resolution data are required. Therefore, sub-daily precipitation outputs from the ICTP RegCM Regional Climate Model driven by the HadGEM2-ES model at 12 km were contemplated in this study. Precipitation outputs for the period 1976-2100 were bias-corrected concerning the observations from GRIPHO, which is a high-resolution observational product. Then, bias-corrected and uncorrected precipitations were used to feed the CETEMPS Hydrological Model (CHyM) completing thus, a set of hydrological simulations covering the entire Italian Territory, in both present-day and future conditions. Analyses focused on the comparison between simulated and observed discharges for present-day conditions, but also on the comparison between corrected and uncorrected values ​​in the future.</p><p>The results of this study could provide valuable information on whether the use of the QM method is appropriate for studying extreme discharges on a sub-daily scale, an essential issue for assessing the impacts of climate change on extreme hydrological events.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: flood hazard assessment, quantile delta mapping, CHyM model, RegCM model, Italy</p><p><strong>Acknowledgments</strong>: The research reported in this work was supported by OGS and CINECA under HPC-TRES program award number 2020-02.</p>

Flood Risk Characterization of Highly Flood-prone Data Scarce Region under Changing Climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aditya Gusain ◽  
Naveen Sudharsan ◽  
Subhankar Karmakar ◽  
Subimal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Risk Framework ◽  
The Impact

<p>It is evident that changes in climate alter the incidence of hydro-climatic extreme events, specifically floods, which are likely to cause irreparable socio-economic and ecological damages. With a 7,516 km coastline that is prone to climate-mediated disturbances and cyclones, the eastern coast of the Indian subcontinent is comparatively more vulnerable to the changing climate and land use with higher incidences of extensive flooding. Therefore, the policy-makers and decision-making authorities are dependent on the scientific community to provide reliable estimates of hydro-meteorological variables for simulating extreme events under the impact of climate change. However, a comprehensive flood risk framework at a finer administrative level is not yet available under the Indian scenario that assesses the changing dynamics and complexities of different components of climatic risk (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure). The present study attempts to demonstrate a proposed framework of flood risk assessment for a highly flood-prone deltaic region of Mahanadi River Basin, India, under climate change scenarios for near-future (the 2040s) at present-day vulnerability and exposure status. It was noted that changes in future flood risk are highly influenced by the vulnerability and exposure status of the region. Lower vulnerability and exposure in coastal sub-districts reduces the overall risk even if a higher flood hazard is observed. Under both future scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the number of villages under high hazard zones with greater flood magnitude has increased. Therefore, it thrusts upon the need to adopt stringent actions for devising better adaptation strategies and sustainable planning which can aid in lowering the vulnerability of the region to future floods.</p>

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