Factors affecting vegetation dynamics in the south of the Mokolo District in the Far North of Cameroon

Plant dynamics is a natural process that occurs in the ecosystem. This dynamic becomes abnormal in the presence of human pressure. The vegetation of the district of Mokolo (Cameroon) faces many anthropic factors that disturb its steady evolution. This work aims to evaluate the different factors that influence the vegetation dynamics in the south of the Mokolo District. All traces of anthropization were identified on all woody species in a rectangular plot (20 m x 100 m). All individuals with a height ≤1.30 m and a Dhp less than 10 cm were considered regenerating individuals. Among the main plant factors, dynamics identified, regeneration, spread type, phytogeographic type have positive impacts while logging, debarking, pruning, grubbing, trampling and burning have negative impacts. Regeneration is the main positive natural factor with the highest frequency in wooded savannas (321±95%). Timber harvesting is the main negative anthropogenic factor with a higher frequency in the home garden (85.00%) and the shrub savannas (68.66%). To reduce the negative impacts and increase the positive impacts, the government must implement reforestation projects in this ecologically fragile area.

A scenario analysis under epistemic uncertainty in Natech accidents: imprecise probability reasoning in Bayesian Network

The increasing frequency and severity of Natech accidents warn us to investigate the occurrence mechanism of these events. Cascading disasters chain magnifies the impact of natural hazards due to its propagation through critical infrastructures and socio-economic networks. In order to manipulate imprecise probabilities of cascading events in Natech scenarios, this work proposes an improved Bayesian network （BN） combining with evidence theory to better deal with epistemic uncertainty in Natech accidents than traditional BNs. Effective inference algorithms have been developed to propagate system faulty in a socio-economic system. The conditional probability table (CPT) of BN in the traditional probability approach is modified by utilizing an OR/AND gate to obtain the belief mass propagation in the framework of evidence theory. Our improved Bayesian network methodology makes it possible to assess the impact and damage of Natech accidents under the environment of complex interdependence among accidents with insufficient data. Finally, a case study of Guangdong province, an area prone to natural disasters, is given. The modified Bayesian network is carried out to analyze this area’s Natech scenario. After diagnostic analysis and sensitivity analysis of human factors and the natural factor, we are able to locate the key nodes in the cascading disaster chain. Findings can provide useful theoretical support for urban managers of industrial cities to enhance disaster prevention and mitigation ability.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF SUBSTANTIVE HYDRO-CLIMATIC VARIABLES ON 2012 FLOOD EXTENT IN YOLA AND ENVIRONS

Flood is a seasonal phenomenon which is natural in it hazardous implication and occurs when there is relative high flow over the banks of the streams as a combine consequence of high recorded data of hydro-climatic related variables in a given geographical area. Yola North LGA, of Adamawa state had experienced an unprecedented flood in the year 2012 over the past decade which might have been influenced by some hydro-climatic variables and caused devastating effects on lives, properties, farmland and buildings respectively. This study focused on the impact assessment of substantive hydro-climatic variables on 2012 flood event in Yola -North and its environs. The hydro-climatic variables data were obtained from Meteorological station at UBRBDA, Yola for a decade. The amount of rainfall experienced was found to be highest (1085.2mm) in the year 2012 than any other year under consideration (2008-2017) except that of 2016, number of rainy days was highest (81 days) in the year 2012. Similarly, in the month of August in the year 2012 evaporation rate was lowest with about 69 mm than any other month of August in the decade, the annual value of water discharge was highest in the year 2012 over the decade with about 6,340(m3/s), the gauge height was found to be highest with about 7.33 m in the year 2012 and the water level was highest in the month of June, July and September with the corresponding values of 3.37 m, 3.49 m and 6.58 m compared to similar months in the years of the decade respectively. These increased changes in some hydro-climatic data analyzed might be the fundamental natural factor that causes the unique flooding than any other factor in the year 2012 in the study area and over time posed negative impact on agricultural lands. Therefore, the study recommends the urgent need to carry out a comprehensive seasonal hydro-climatic data record simulation analysis and variations with a view of taking them as a recipe and strategies of forecasting and predicting the reoccurrence of such phenomenon. The additional meteorological station should be provided by the government agencies in all agricultural zones of the state for adequate and wide range of hydro-climatic data recording for appropriate prediction of weather indices in future.

Hydrochemical peculiarities and groundwater quality assessment of the Birimian and Tarkwaian aquifer systems in Bosome Freho District and Bekwai Municipality of the Ashanti Region, Ghana

The Birimian and Tarkwaian aquifer systems are the main sources of water supply for the Bosome Freho District and Bekwai Municipality inhabitants in the Ashanti region of Ghana. A hydrogeochemical assessment was carried out to ascertain the natural baseline chemistry of the groundwaters and the factors influencing groundwater chemistry in these two areas. A multivariate statistical tool consisting of principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) together with hydrochemical graphical plots was applied on 64 groundwater samples. The Q–mode HCA results were used to explain the changes in groundwater chemistry along the flow paths where three spatial groundwater zones and water types were delineated. The first type consists of Ca–Mg–HCO3 freshwater (recharge zone), which transitions into Ca–Na–HCO3 or Na–Ca–HCO3 mixed waters (intermediate zone) and finally evolves to the third type of Na–Ca–Mg–HCO3–Cl water (discharge zone). The study also reveals that the natural process influencing water chemistry is groundwater–rock interaction from carbonate and silicate weathering/dissolution, aided by carbonic acid from precipitation and releases concentration of Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, and HCO3− into the groundwaters significantly. The chloro-alkaline indices also reveal cation exchange as the principal natural factor that controls groundwater chemistry in the area. Inverse geochemical modelling shows the dissolution of primary minerals such as dolomite, plagioclase, halite, gypsum, and precipitation of calcite and chlorite along the groundwater flow path. Anthropogenic activities have little influence on groundwater chemistry. The quality of groundwater in the Bosome Freho District and Bekwai Municipality is suitable for irrigational use and drinking water consumption. The results obtained so far will contribute to research paucity in the study area and serve as a guide for decision-makers for improved water resources management.

Strategi Peningkatan Efektivitas Masyarakat Peduli Api (MPA) Dalam Pengendalian Kebakaran Hutan di Provinsi Bali

Strategy For Improving Effectiveness of Fire Care Society (MPA) in Control of Forest Fire in Bali Province. Land and forest fires seem to be an annual disaster in Indonesia. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry is initiated to form Fire Care Community Groups, called Fire Care Society (MPA). MPA in Bali has been established since 2012. The study is needed to determine the community perception who live around the forest areas, to determine the effectiveness of MPA, and to analyzed strategic increases the effectiveness of MPAregarding forest fires controlling. Research data has been collected through a closed questionnaire to compile the respond of respondents in the google form. The respondent consisted of MPA member and non-member and related stakeholders. The types of data that been collected include respondent’s perceptions, MPA participation, and implementation of Perdirjen PPI number 3, 2018. These data then analyzed with the SWOT method. The results showed that the MPA and non-MPA members have positive perception of natural factor and human behavior as a factor of forest fires. The highest value of MPA’s participation in fires-fighting is 3.71 and participation influenced by environmental factors valued at 3.84. While the implementation of Perdirjen PPI decree is 66.39%. The SWOT analysis shows the MPA in progressive strategic S-O. So this study concludes that the MPA hasn’t been fully effective. The effectiveness can be improved by providing adequate support through clear regulations, budget allocations, and increasing human resource capacity.

COMPOSITION AND CONTENT OF ORGANIC ACIDS IN JUICE AND WINE FROM GRAPES GROWN IN THE NORTH-WESTERN ZONE OF DAGESTAN

Методом капиллярного электрофореза изучен качественный состав и количественное содержание органических кислот в соках и виноматериалах из винограда сортов Ркацители и Молдова, выращенных в экологических условиях равнины и предгорья северо-западной зоны Дагестана. Идентифицировано восемь компонентов: винная, лимонная, молочная, муравьиная, уксусная, щавелевая, яблочная и янтарная кислоты. Превалировали винная и яблочная кислоты, которые, как и уксусная, содержались во всех опытных образцах. Количество обнаруженных органических кислот составляло от 0,01 (молочная и янтарная) до 3,31 г/дм3 (винная). Их наибольшая общая массовая концентрация определена в соке из винограда сорта Ркацители – 5,3 г/дм3. Отмечено, что суммарное содержание этих компонентов в образцах соков и виноматериалов из винограда сортов Ркацители и Молдова незначительно зависит от высоты места произрастания винограда над уровнем моря. Этот природный фактор обусловливает различия в соотношениях кислот, особенно при формировании их пулов в виноматериалах. Органические кислоты, обнаруженные в исследованных образцах продуктов переработки винограда, способны влиять на появление неординарных нюансов цвета, вкуса и аромата, повышающих качество шампанских вин и коньяков. The qualitative composition and quantitative content of organic acids in juices and wine materials from grapes of Rkatsiteli and Moldova grown under the ecological conditions of the plains and foothills of the North West zone of Dagestan were studied by the method of capillary electrophoresis. Eight components are identified: wine, lemon, dairy, ant, acetic, oxalic, apple and amber acids. The amount of the found organic acids was 0,01 (dairy and amber acids) – 3,31 g/dm3 (wine acid). Their highest general mass concentration is defined in juice from Rkatsiteli – 5,3 g/dm3. It is noted that the total content of these components in the samples of juice and wine materials from grapes of Rkatsiteli and Moldova slightly depends on the height of your growing grapes above the sea level. This natural factor causes differences in ratios of acids, especially when forming their pools in wine materials. The organic acids found in the studied products of processing made from Rkatsiteli and Moldova grapes are capable to influence emergence of the extraordinary nuances of color, taste and aroma increasing quality of sparkling wines and cognacs.

Remote Employment: Expansion of Anti-Migration Factors (Using a Number of Federal Entities of the Southern Federal District As an Example)

The relevance of the problem under consideration is related to the expansion of distance employment both in connection with the development of digital economy and under the influence of the pandemic as a new phenomenon that can affect migration. The purpose of this article is to identify the possibility of the emergence of new anti-migration factors, new measures to consolidate the population in a particular territory in connection with the development of remote employment. In contrast to the existing studies of labor migration and remote employment, a synthesis of these processes is proposed, the understanding of which has not yet been reflected in scientific papers, as the analysis of the scientific works showed. Methodology of the study is based on the results of theoretical understanding of sociological surveys of Internet recruitment data for the reasons and directions of labor migration and distance employment. People who leave for other regions and are engaged in remote work are in general characterized by higher education, relatively young age and the desire to move to large cities with developed infrastructure. Nevertheless, they differ in the types of work performed. When working remotely, they are engaged in IT technologies, accounting, audit, and legal services. During labor migration, they work in construction industry, enterprises of raw materials extraction, and industrial production, i.e. jobs involving hard physical labor. At the same time young people are more focused on intellectual work and are not interested in physical work. It is facilitated by the focus of the current education system on the development of creativity and project activities with little attention paid to the development of physical abilities. The development of distance employment is just a new factor in the consolidation of the permanently settled population in the region. For this purpose, it is suggested to change the approaches to infrastructure development, which is confirmed by the experience, for example, of Innopolis and the proactive formation of individual labor careers, primarily for native population but also for the newly arrived people. Such a policy is most important for the federal entities of the Southern Federal District the reason for moving to which is a unique natural factor and a favorable climate.

UNDERSTANDING CONSTRUCTION SITE SAFETY HAZARDS THROUGH OPEN DATA: TEXT MINING APPROACH

Construction is an industry well known for its very high rate of injuries and accidents around the world. Even though many researchers are engaged in analysing the risks of this industry using various techniques, construction accidents still require much attention in safety science. According to existing literature, it has been found that hazards related to workers, technology, natural factors, surrounding activities and organisational factors are primary causes of accidents. Yet, there has been limited research aimed to ascertain the extent of these hazards based on the actual reported accidents. Therefore, the study presented in this paper was conducted with the purpose of devising an approach to extract sources of hazards from publicly available injury reports by using Text Mining (TM) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. This paper presents a methodology to develop a rule-based extraction tool by providing full details of lexicon building, devising extraction rules and the iterative process of testing and validation. In addition, the developed rule-based classifier was compared with, and found to outperform, the existing statistical classifiers such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Kernel SVM, K-nearest neighbours, Naïve Bayesian classifier and Random Forest classifier. The finding using the developed tool identified the worker factor as the highest contributor to construction site accidents followed by technological factor, surrounding activities, organisational factor, and natural factor (1%). The developed tool could be used to quickly extract the sources of hazards by converting largely available unstructured digital accident data to structured attributes allowing better data-driven safety management.

Study of quality indicators in horse bean varieties

Nutrition is the most important natural factor in human health. In modern times humanity often faces the malnutrition worldwide. At present, many countries of the world are making new contributions to breeding. They cultivate many plants in this direction and select the best and most valuable species and varieties. Plant products are utilized as food, forage, and raw materials in the light industry. From this point of view, study of horse beans is important. Horse beans are easy to grow. Amino acids, proteins, and vitamins in their composition are well absorbed by the human body. Humans get their plant protein from bread, which is part of their daily diet. This means less calories and more protein. The creation of new products is of particular interest. From this point of view, the research work on this topic is relevant and demand of the day. Quality indicators in the nursery resistant to ascochitosis (FBIABN): protein in FLIP16-029FB was 32.9%, fat in FLIP17-045FB was 6.90% and the highest humidity was found in FLIP17-045FB-13.9%. Oil yield showed variation between 0.27-3.13% (c/ha), protein yield showed variation between 2.6–16.6% (c/ ha), yield showed variation between 10,0-50.9(c/ha). In the nursery resistant to chocolate spot disease (FBICSN), protein indicators in Rebeya 40 were 30.4%. Oil content in Rebeya 40 was 8.37%. Humidity indicators showed 13.5%. Oil content showed variation between 0.34-2.70% (c/ha), protein yield between 2.55-9.4% (c/ha), yield varied between 10.0-47.5(c/ha).Quality indicators in mechanical harvesting nursery (FBIMHN): protein in FLIP 16-214 was (27.6%). Oil content in FLIP17-055FB was 5.39%. Humidity indicators in FLIP17-055 FB were 17.1%. Oil yield showed variation between 0.27-1.84% (c/ha), protein yield showed vatiation between 1.02-9.94% (c/ha), productivity showed variation between 6.0-39.9% (c/ha). In the seeds of the studied varieties, between productivity and oil yield per hectare, r = 0.983**, productivity and protein yield per hectare, r = 0.962** positive correlation was observed. From this dependence, it is possible to create high-yield and-quality varieties by breeding. Key words: horse bean, protein, fat, humidity, quality, yield

Absolute humidity of atmospheric air and COVID-19

Today COVID-19 is number one global point of focus. Therefore, study of the effects of environmental conditions, in which exist pandemic subjects — people and viruses, on pandemic dynamics and results is extremely important. The authors made a correlation analysis of dependence between incidence/mortality of population and absolute and relative humidity in 73 countries and regions on different continents of the Earth. The methodology developed defines how and in what periods of time the environmental factors effect on human incidence and mortality, how strongly particular atmospheric parameter affects the process of infection and disease flow. The undertaken calculations allowed to prove that the absolute humidity is one of the dominant natural factor which influences on pandemic COVID-19 and other infectious diseases dynamics. The growth of absolute air humidity can have both positive and negative effect on incidence and mortality of population while the effect’s character depends on absolute humidity’s own level and other atmospheric parameters. Correlation of absolute and relative humidity with incidence/mortality at the same time can be different in value or sign. Existing regulations at the federal level in Russian Federation are established without taking into account the minimum allowable and physiologically optimal value of absolute humidity, and need corrections. The question of the impact of absolute humidity is of great importance for northern territories, where most of the year the value of absolute humidity is less than the minimum allowed. The achieved results show high degree of the impact of absolute humidity on incidence and mortality of population due to COVID-19 and contribute to better understanding of pandemic peaks cyclicality and conscious forecasting of start of periods of the most dangerous epidemiological reality.