Local effects of global climate change on the urban drainage system of Hamburg

The Hamburg Water Group owns and operates a sewer network with a total length of more than 5,700 km. There has been increasing attention paid to the possible impacts of predicted changes in precipitation patterns on the sewer network infrastructure. The primary objective of the work presented in this paper is an estimation of the hydraulic impacts of climate change on the Hamburg drainage system. As a first step, simulated rainfalls based on the regional climate model REMO were compared and validated with long-term precipitation measurements. In the second step, the hydraulic effects on the sewer network of Hamburg have been analyzed based on simulated long-term rainfall series for the period of 2000–2100. Simulation results show a significant increase in combined sewer overflows by 50% as well as an increase in surcharges of storm sewer manholes. However, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty resulting from model uncertainty and unknown development of future greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there seems to be no sound basis for the implementation of an overall climate factor for sewer dimensioning for the Hamburg region. Nevertheless, possible effects of climate change should be taken into account within the planning process for major sewer extensions or modifications.

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Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-6-1429-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 6 (5) ◽

pp. 1429-1445 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

M. Trail ◽

A. P. Tsimpidi ◽

P. Liu ◽

K. Tsigaridis ◽

Y. Hu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Quality ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Southeastern Us ◽

The Us ◽

Ozone Levels

Abstract. Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

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THE SCIENCE UNDERLYING THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION

The APPEA Journal ◽

10.1071/aj00039 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 41 (1) ◽

pp. 689

Author(s):

C.D. Mitchell ◽

G.I. Pearman

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Management ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Initial Response ◽

Lower Atmosphere ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Atmospheric Concentration

The prospect of global-scale changes in climate resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has produced a complex set of public and private- sector responses. This paper reviews several elements of this issue that are likely to be most important to industry.Scientific research continues to provide evidence to suggest that global climate will change significantly over the coming decades due to increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Nonetheless, there exists a debate over the difference between observations of temperature retrieved from satellite and temperature measurements taken from the surface. Recent research undertaken to inform the debate is discussed, with the conclusion that there are real differences in trend between the surface and the lower atmosphere that can be explained in physical terms. Attention is turning to developing an understanding as to why climate model results show apparently consistent trends between the surface and the lower atmosphere, in contrast to these observations.While such uncertainties in the underlying science have been used to question whether action on the greenhouse issues is necessary, the initial response, as evidenced by international negotiations, has been to start mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation to future climate change has received less attention than mitigation. A number of reasons for this are discussed, including the fact that regional scenarios of climate change are uncertain.The principles of risk management may be one way to manage the uncertainties associated with projections of regional climate change. Although the application of risk management to the potential impacts of climate change requires further investigation, elements of such a framework are identified, and include:Identifying the critical climate-related thresholds that are important to industry and its operations (for example, a 1-in-100 year return tropical cyclone).Using this understanding to analyse, and where possible quantify, industry’s pre-existing or baseline adaptive state through the use of sensitivity surfaces and quantified thresholds (for example, were facilities designed for a 1-in-100 event or a 1-in-500 year event?)Establishing probabilistic statements or scenarios of climate that are relevant to industry practice (for example, risk of a storm surge may be more important to operations than elevated wind strength; if so, what is the probability that an event will exceed the design threshold during the lifetime of the facility?).Bringing information on existing adaptive mechanisms together with climate scenarios to produce a quantitative risk assessment.Deciding on risk treatment (additional adaptive measures).

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Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 16 (7) ◽

pp. 1617-1622 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Fred Fokko Hattermann ◽

Shaochun Huang ◽

Olaf Burghoff ◽

Peter Hoffmann ◽

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Considerable Increase ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Impact Modelling ◽

Flood Damages

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

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Quantification of the Expected Changes in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation Quantiles under Climate Change in the Iberian Peninsula

Proceedings ◽

10.3390/ecws-3-05819 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 23 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Carlos Garijo ◽

Luis Mediero

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Control Period ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

The Future

Climate model projections can be used to assess the expected behaviour of extreme precipitations in the future due to climate change. The European part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscalling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) provides precipitation projections for the future under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through regionalised Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs by a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In this work, 12 combinations of GCM and RCM under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) supplied by the EURO-CORDEX are analysed for the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation quantiles for a set of probabilities of non-exceedance are estimated by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and L-moments. Precipitation quantiles expected in the future are compared with the precipitation quantiles in the control period for each climate model. An approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is developed in order to assess the uncertainty from the climate model projections. Expected changes in the future are compared with the sampling uncertainty in the control period. Thus, statistically significant changes are identified. The higher the significance threshold, the fewer cells with significant changes are identified. Consequently, a set of maps are obtained in order to assist the decision-making process in subsequent climate change studies.

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Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modeling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-3-7231-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 3 (12) ◽

pp. 7231-7245

Author(s):

F. F. Hattermann ◽

S. Huang ◽

O. Burghoff ◽

P. Hoffmann ◽

Z. W. Kundzewicz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Large Scale ◽

Considerable Increase ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Flood Damages

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in future, warmer, climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one Global Climate Model (GCM) was used as large scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCM models are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modeling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate driver shows trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

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Climate model validation and selection for hydrological applications in representative Mediterranean catchments

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-10-9105-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 9105-9145 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

R. Deidda ◽

M. Marrocu ◽

G. Caroletti ◽

G. Pusceddu ◽

A. Langousis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Climate Model ◽

Epistemic Uncertainty ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Primary Objective ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Ensembles Project ◽

The Eu

Abstract. This paper discusses the relative performance of several climate models in providing reliable forcing for hydrological modeling in six representative catchments in the Mediterranean region. We consider 14 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project, run for the A1B emission scenario on a common 0.22-degree (about 24 km) rotated grid over Europe and the Mediterranean. In the validation period (1951 to 2010) we consider daily precipitation and surface temperatures from the E-OBS dataset, available from the ENSEMBLES project and the data providers in the ECA&D project. Our primary objective is to rank the 14 RCMs for each catchment and select the four best performing ones to use as common forcing for hydrological models in the six Mediterranean basins considered in the EU-FP7 CLIMB project. Using a common suite of 4 RCMs for all studied catchments reduces the (epistemic) uncertainty when evaluating trends and climate change impacts in the XXI century. We present and discuss the validation setting, as well as the obtained results and, to some detail, the difficulties we experienced when processing the data. In doing so we also provide useful information and hint for an audience of researchers not directly involved in climate modeling, but interested in the use of climate model outputs for hydrological modeling and, more in general, climate change impact studies in the Mediterranean.

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Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change impacts on US regional and urban air quality

Geoscientific Model Development Discussions ◽

10.5194/gmdd-6-2517-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 2517-2549 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. Trail ◽

A. P. Tsimpidi ◽

P. Liu ◽

K. Tsigaridis ◽

Y. Hu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Quality ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Southeastern Us ◽

The Us

Abstract. Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (Western US, Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

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Building synergies in regional climate services for Southeast Asia: The ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) workshop series.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15094 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Gerald Lim ◽

Aurel Moise ◽

Raizan Rahmat ◽

Bertrand Timbal

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Data Analysis ◽

Southeast Asia ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Services

Southeast Asia (SEA) is a rapidly developing and densely populated region that is home to over 600 million people. This, together with the region&#8217;s high sensitivity, exposure and low adaptive capacities, makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change and extremes such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. While the last decade saw some countries in SEA develop their own climate change projections, studies were largely uncoordinated and most countries still lack the capability to independently produce robust future climate information. Following a proposal from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Regional Association (RA) V working group on climate services, the ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) workshop series was conceived in 2017 to bridge these gaps in regional synergies. The ARCDAP series has been organised annually since 2018 by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (hosted by Meteorological Service Singapore) with support from WMO through the Canada-funded Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (Canada-CREWS) initiative.This presentation will cover the activities and outcomes from the first two workshops, as well as the third which will be held in February 2020. The ARCDAP series has so far brought together representatives from ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), climate scientists and end-users from policy-making and a variety of vulnerability and impact assessment (VIA) sectors, to discuss and identify best practices regarding the delivery of climate change information, data usage and management, advancing the science etc. Notable outputs include two comprehensive workshop reports and a significant regional contribution to the HadEX3 global land in-situ-based dataset of temperature and precipitation extremes, motivated by work done with the ClimPACT2 software.The upcoming third workshop will endeavour to encourage the uptake of the latest ensemble of climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) using CMIP-endorsed tools such as ESMValTool. This will address the need for ASEAN climate change practitioners to upgrade their knowledge of the latest global climate model database. It is anticipated that with continued support from WMO, the series will continue with the Fourth workshop targeting the assessment of downscaling experiments in 2021.

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