scholarly journals Suicides during the COVID-19 pandemic: comparing frequencies in three population groups, 9.2 million people overall

2021 ◽  
pp. 132-144
Author(s):  
V.A. Rozanov ◽  
◽  
N.V. Semenova ◽  
Yu.G. Kamenshchikov ◽  
A.Ya. Vuks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Suicidal Behavior ◽  
Heterogeneous Population ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Population Groups ◽  
Saint Petersburg ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Pandemic Wave

There are observations that right after total quarantine measures were introduced, there was no growth in number of suicides, but a situation remains unclear when it comes down to new waves in the pandemic development. Our research goal was to estimate risks of suicide in heterogeneous population groups in 2020, that is, from the pandemic start and up to the second wave rise. We analyzed data on completed suicides in Saint Petersburg, Udmurtia Republic (Russia), and Odessa region (Ukraine), 6,375 cases overall among population groups with total number of people being equal to 9,216 thousand starting from January 01, 2016 to December 31, 2020. Confidence intervals for frequencies as per months (per 100,000 people) in 2020 were calculated as per Wilson and compared with average ones calculated for 2016–2019. There was a decrease in frequency of completed suicides in all three population groups during a period when the strictest quarantine measures were valid; by the mid-summer the trend normalized or there was even a slight increase. When the second pandemic wave came, changes were multidirectional; in particular, in Saint Petersburg there was another decrease by the end of the year, the most apparent and statistically significant among men whereas there were short-term rises in Udmurtia and Odessa. Our comparison performed for population groups with initially different levels of suicides confirms that right after a crisis starts, suicidal behavior becomes less frequent among people; however, as a response to the second pandemic wave, we can expect both falls and rises in number of suicides and it requires more intense preventive activities.

scholarly journals Suicides during the COVID-19 pandemic: comparing frequencies in three population groups, 9.2 million people overall

2021 ◽  
pp. 132-144
Author(s):  
V.A. Rozanov ◽  
◽  
N.V. Semenova ◽  
Yu.G. Kamenshchikov ◽  
A.Ya. Vuks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Suicidal Behavior ◽  
Heterogeneous Population ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Population Groups ◽  
Saint Petersburg ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Pandemic Wave

There are observations that right after total quarantine measures were introduced, there was no growth in number of suicides, but a situation remains unclear when it comes down to new waves in the pandemic development. Our research goal was to estimate risks of suicide in heterogeneous population groups in 2020, that is, from the pandemic start and up to the second wave rise. We analyzed data on completed suicides in Saint Petersburg, Udmurtia Republic (Russia), and Odessa region (Ukraine), 6,375 cases overall among population groups with total number of people being equal to 9,216 thousand starting from January 01, 2016 to December 31, 2020. Confidence intervals for frequencies as per months (per 100,000 people) in 2020 were calculated as per Wilson and compared with average ones calculated for 2016–2019. There was a decrease in frequency of completed suicides in all three population groups during a period when the strictest quarantine measures were valid; by the mid-summer the trend normalized or there was even a slight increase. When the second pandemic wave came, changes were multidirectional; in particular, in Saint Petersburg there was another decrease by the end of the year, the most apparent and statistically significant among men whereas there were short-term rises in Udmurtia and Odessa. Our comparison performed for population groups with initially different levels of suicides confirms that right after a crisis starts, suicidal behavior becomes less frequent among people; however, as a response to the second pandemic wave, we can expect both falls and rises in number of suicides and it requires more intense preventive activities.

scholarly journals On short-term trends and predictions for COVID-19 in France and the USA: comparison with Australia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry C. Tuckwell ◽  
Mohsen Dorraki ◽  
Stephen J. Salamon ◽  
Andrew Allison ◽  
Derek Abbott
Keyword(s):  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Lower Order ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
High Order ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Smooth Curves ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Best Fitting ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractIn Europe and the USA daily new COVID-19 cases have recently been occurring in record numbers, which has created an alarming situation. The CDC in conjunction with several University groups gives forecasts for each county in the USA for several weeks at a time, but they have very large confidence intervals typified by the most recent national prediction of between 310,000 and 710,000 new cases for the week ending November 21, 2020. We have examined recent data for France and the USA over 10, 15 and 20 days. Using such data with simple fitting techniques, which do not require knowledge of any parameters, it has been possible to predict new case numbers fairly accurately for a week or more. A best-fitting polynomial of high order was only useful for a few days, after which it severely overestimated case numbers. A more detailed analysis with confidence intervals was performed for polynomials of orders one to six, which showed that lower order polynomials were more useful for prediction. Using the packages PCHIP and a POLYFIT (with degree one) in MATLAB gave smooth curves from which future case numbers could be reasonably well estimated. With PCHIP the average errors over 7 days were remarkably small, being −0.16% for France and +0.19% for the USA. A comparison is made between the temporal patterns of new cases for France, the USA and Australia. For Australia the second wave has dwindled to close to zero due to hard lock down conditions, which are discussed.

scholarly journals Difficulties of Soviet Urbanization and Construction of the “Socialist City” in the Multicultural Periphery: Kazan in the 1920s

2021 ◽  
Vol 163 (3) ◽  
pp. 226-240
Author(s):  
T.M. Bohn ◽  
◽  
S.Yu. Malysheva ◽  
A.A. Salnikova ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Population ◽  
Urban Culture ◽  
Heterogeneous Population ◽  
Urban Migration ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Soviet Policy ◽  
The Social ◽  
Positive Discrimination ◽  
Rural Urban Migration ◽  
City Construction

Based on the example of Kazan in the 1920s, the difficulties and problems of implementing the Soviet policy of urbanization and “socialist city” construction in cities with a nationally and religiously heterogeneous population are shown. This policy and the related processes of rural-urban migration, “indigenization”, “apartment redistribution”, and development of the urban outskirts at the expense of the former “bourgeois” center destroyed, deliberately and purposefully, the urban culture that had previously prevailed here and changed the social and national composition of the urban population. Therefore, they can be regarded as the tools of “positive discrimination”. The “positive discrimination” of the formerly dominant urban Russian culture in favor of the developing Tatar culture, mostly in its rural variant, manifested itself very clearly in education, namely in the content and design of the Soviet Tatar alphabet (alifba). However, the practice of granting preferences to the previously discriminated strata turned out to be short-term, tooled for the tasks of immediate strengthening of the social base of the Soviet power, and designed to destroy the former society and culture. These practices of dealing with multiculturalism became less popular by the late 1920s–early 1930s, as the Bolshevik power stabilized and “state-oriented” and unifying tendencies in the power policy increased.

scholarly journals The Swiss Corona Stress Study: second pandemic wave, November 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique de Quervain ◽  
Amanda Aerni ◽  
Ehssan Amini ◽  
Dorothée Bentz ◽  
David Coynel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Maximum Stress ◽  
Or Education ◽  
Stress Study ◽  
Stress Levels ◽  
French Speaking ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Seriously Ill ◽  
Financial Losses ◽  
Pandemic Wave

The results of the third survey of the Swiss Corona Stress Study refer to the period from November 11-19, 2020, during which 11,612 people from all over Switzerland participated. Stress levels have increased significantly compared to the first survey during lockdown in April 2020. While the proportion of people reporting maximum stress levels was around 11% during the April lockdown, it rose to 20% in the second pandemic wave in November. The increase in stress was accompanied by an increase in depressive symptoms. The main drivers of psychological stress and depressive symptoms included burden due to a Covid-19-related change in work, school, or education, Covid-19-related financial losses, and fears about the future. These stressors have increased significantly, compared to the time of the April lockdown. Further factors were the fear that someone in the closest circle would become seriously ill or die from COVID-19, as well as the burden of social restrictions and burden from an increase in conflicts at home. While the proportion of respondents with moderately severe or severe (PHQ-9 ≥15) depressive symptoms was 3% before the pandemic, 9% during the April lockdown, and 12% during May, it increased to 18% in November. The risk for moderately severe or severe depressive symptoms was associated with age (with younger people showing the highest risk) and was increased in people experiencing financial losses due to the pandemic. In addition, people from the French-speaking part of Switzerland, which was most affected by the pandemic during the second wave, were at higher risk than people from the rest of Switzerland.

scholarly journals Psychological distress associated with the second COVID-19 wave: Prospective evidence from the UK Household Longitudinal Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Daly ◽  
Eric Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Distress ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
General Health Questionnaire ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
Clinically Significant ◽  
Fixed Effects Regression ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pandemic Wave

BackgroundIn late 2020 a second wave of COVID-19 infections occurred in many countries and resulted in a national lockdown in the UK including stay at home orders and school closures. This study aimed to compare the prevalence of psychological distress before and during the second COVID-19 wave in the UK. MethodsThis study drew on data from 10,657 participants from the nationally representative probability-based UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS). The 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) assessment measure was used to detect the proportion of UK adults experiencing clinically significant psychological distress. Changes in distress levels associated with the second pandemic wave were examined between September 2020 and January 2021 using logistic regression and linear fixed-effects regression models. ResultsLongitudinal analyses showed that the prevalence of clinically significant distress rose by 5.8% (95% CI:4.4-7.2) from 21.3% in September 2020 to 27.1% in January 2021, compared with a 2019 pre-pandemic estimate of 21% in this cohort. Fixed effects analyses confirmed that the second COVID-19 wave was associated with a significant within-person increase in distress (d =0.15, p<.001). Increases were particularly pronounced among those with school-age children in the home. LimitationsA non-specific measure of mental health symptoms was utilized and it was not possible to separate the potential impact of the pandemic from other changes occurring in tandem within the study period. ConclusionClinically significant distress rose during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and reached levels similar to those observed in the immediate aftermath of the first pandemic wave.

scholarly journals Second wave mortality among patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in Sweden: a nationwide observational cohort study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristoffer Strålin ◽  
Erik Wahlström ◽  
Sten Walther ◽  
Anna M Bennet-Bark ◽  
Mona Heurgren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Of Care ◽  
High Load ◽  
Added Value ◽  
National Board ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Nationwide Observational Study ◽  
Substantial Decline ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pandemic Wave

ABSTRACTBackgroundDuring the first pandemic wave, a substantial decline in mortality was seen among hospitalised COVID-19 patients. We aimed to study if the decreased mortality continued during the second wave, using data compiled by the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare.MethodRetrospective nationwide observational study of all patients hospitalised in Sweden between March 1st and December 31st, 2020, with SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity 14 days before to 5 days after admission and a discharge code for COVID-19. Outcome was 60-day all-cause mortality. Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk (RR) for death by month of admission, adjusting for age, sex, socio-economic data, comorbidity, care dependency, and country of birth.FindingsA total of 32 452 patients were included. December had the highest number of admissions/month (n=8253) followed by April (n=6430). The 60-day crude mortality decreased from 24·7% (95% CI, 23·0%-26·5%) for March to 10·4% (95% CI, 8·9%-12·1%) for July-September (as reported previously), later increased to 19·9% (95% CI, 19·1-20·8) for December. RR for 60-day death for December (reference) was higher than those for June to November (RR ranging from 0·74 to 0·89; 95% CI <1 for all months). SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern were only sporadically found in Sweden before January 2021.InterpretationThe decreased mortality of hospitalised COVID-19 patients after the first wave turned and increased during the second wave. Focused research is urgent to describe if this increase was caused by a high load of patients, management and treatment, viral properties, or other factors.Research in contextEvidence before this studyDuring the first pandemic wave, a substantial decline in mortality was seen among hospitalised COVID-19 patients in many countries. As the reason for this decline has not been clarified, no one could foresee how mortality would change during forthcoming waves.Added valueThis retrospective nationwide study of all patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in Sweden from March to December 2020 showed that the gradual decrease in mortality seen in the first pandemic wave was followed by an increased crude and adjusted 60-day all-cause mortality during the second wave. This increase in mortality occurred although the standard-of-care recommendations for hospitalised COVID-19 patients did not change in Sweden during the second half of 2020.Implications of all the available evidenceWhile improved standard-of-care was believed to be an important factor for the decrease in mortality during the first pandemic wave, the increasing mortality during the second wave has no apparent explanation. As the currently known virus variants of concern occurred only sporadically in Sweden before January 2021, they were most likely not involved. Focused research is urgent to describe if this increase in mortality was caused by a high load of patients, management and treatment factors, viral properties, or other circumstances

scholarly journals Graded Activity and Graded Exposure for Persistent Nonspecific Low Back Pain: A Systematic Review

2010 ◽  
Vol 90 (6) ◽  
pp. 860-879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciana G. Macedo ◽  
Rob J.E.M. Smeets ◽  
Christopher G. Maher ◽  
Jane Latimer ◽  
James H. McAuley
Keyword(s):  
Low Back Pain ◽  
Back Pain ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Controlled Trials ◽  
Low Back ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Minimal Intervention ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
Graded Exposure ◽  
Graded Activity

Background Graded activity and graded exposure are increasingly being used in the management of persistent low back pain; however, their effectiveness remains poorly understood. Purpose The aim of this study was to systematically review randomized controlled trials that evaluated the effectiveness of graded activity or graded exposure for persistent (&gt;6 weeks in duration or recurrent) low back pain. Data Sources Trials were electronically searched and rated for quality by use of the PEDro scale (values of 0–10). Study Selection Randomized controlled trials of graded activity or graded exposure that included pain, disability, global perceived effect, or work status outcomes were included in the study. Data Extraction Outcomes were converted to a scale from 0 to 100. Trials were pooled with software used for preparing and maintaining Cochrane reviews. Results are presented as weighted mean differences with 95% confidence intervals. Data Synthesis Fifteen trials with 1,654 patients were included. The trials had a median quality score of 6 (range=3–9). Pooled effects from 6 trials comparing graded activity with a minimal intervention or no treatment favored graded activity, with 4 contrasts being statistically significant: mean values (95% confidence intervals) for pain in the short term, pain in the intermediate term, disability in the short term, and disability in the intermediate term were −6.2 (−9.4 to −3.0), −5.5 (−9.9 to −1.0), −6.5 (−10.1 to −3.0), and −3.9 (−7.4 to −0.4), respectively. None of the pooled effects from 6 trials comparing graded activity with another form of exercise, from 4 trials comparing graded activity with graded exposure, and from 2 trials comparing graded exposure with a waiting list were statistically significant. Limitations Limitations of this review include the low quality of the studies, primarily those that evaluated graded exposure; the use of various types of outome measures; and differences in the implementation of the interventions, adding to the heterogeneity of the studies. Conclusions The available evidence suggests that graded activity in the short term and intermediate term is slightly more effective than a minimal intervention but not more effective than other forms of exercise for persistent low back pain. The limited evidence suggests that graded exposure is as effective as minimal treatment or graded activity for persistent low back pain.

The short term feeding behaviour of pigs given access to foods differing in bulk content

2002 ◽  
Vol 2002 ◽  
pp. 27-27
Author(s):  
E. C. Whittemore ◽  
I. Kyriazakis ◽  
G.C. Emmans ◽  
B.J. Tolkamp ◽  
C. A. Morgan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Intake ◽  
Feeding Behaviour ◽  
Daily Intake ◽  
Growing Pigs ◽  
Feeding Time ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Control Food ◽  
Bulk Content ◽  
High Bulk ◽  
Different Levels

We need to improve our understanding of the factors that are important for the control of food intake on high bulk foods. The study of short term feeding behaviour (STFB) may help to do this. The objective of this experiment was to study the effects of giving foods differing in bulk content on the STFB of growing pigs. It was expected that the foods would result in different levels of daily intake and that this would be reflected as differences in STFB between the foods. Two hypotheses were developed based on ideas about the way in which a physical constraint to intake could arise. H1; there would be less diurnal variation in feeding on high bulk foods that limit intake. H2; feeding patterns on bulky foods would be less flexible than those on a control food when feeding time is limited by reducing time of access to the feeder.

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