scholarly journals The Causality Inference of Public Interest in Restaurants and Bars on COVID-19 Daily Cases in the US: A Google Trends Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milad Asgari Mehrabadi ◽  
Nikil Dutt ◽  
Amir M. Rahmani
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Interest ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Search Queries ◽  
The Us ◽  
Google Search ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has affected virtually every region of the globe. At the time of conducting this study, the number of daily cases in the United States is more than any other country, and the trend is increasing in most of its states. Google trends provide public interest in various topics during different periods. Analyzing these trends using data mining methods might provide useful insights and observations regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to consider the predictive ability of different search terms (i.e., bars and restaurants) with regards to the increase of daily cases in the US. In particular, we were concerned with searches for dine-in restaurants and bars. Data were obtained from Google trends API and COVID tracking project. METHODS To test causation of one time series on another, we used Granger’s Causality Test. We considered the causation of two different search query trends, namely restaurant and bars, on daily positive cases in top-10 states/territories of the United States with the highest and lowest daily new positive cases. In addition, to measure the linear relation of different trends, we used Pearson correlation. RESULTS Our results showed for states/territories with higher numbers of daily cases, the historical trends in search queries related to bars and restaurants, which mainly happened after re-opening, significantly affect the daily new cases, on average. California, for example, had most searches for restaurants on June 7th, 2020, which affected the number of new cases within two weeks after the peak with the P-value of .004 for Granger’s causality test. CONCLUSIONS Although a limited number of search queries were considered, Google search trends for restaurants and bars showed a significant effect on daily new cases for regions with higher numbers of daily new cases in the United States. We showed that such influential search trends could be used as additional information for prediction tasks in new cases of each region. This prediction can help healthcare leaders manage and control the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks on society and be prepared for the outcomes.

scholarly journals The Causality Inference of Public Interest in Restaurants and Bars on Daily COVID-19 Cases in the United States: Google Trends Analysis

10.2196/22880 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. e22880
Author(s):  
Milad Asgari Mehrabadi ◽  
Nikil Dutt ◽  
Amir M Rahmani
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Public Interest ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Us States ◽  
Search Queries ◽  
Google Search

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has affected virtually every region in the world. At the time of this study, the number of daily new cases in the United States was greater than that in any other country, and the trend was increasing in most states. Google Trends provides data regarding public interest in various topics during different periods. Analyzing these trends using data mining methods may provide useful insights and observations regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. Objective The objective of this study is to consider the predictive ability of different search terms not directly related to COVID-19 with regard to the increase of daily cases in the United States. In particular, we are concerned with searches related to dine-in restaurants and bars. Data were obtained from the Google Trends application programming interface and the COVID-19 Tracking Project. Methods To test the causation of one time series on another, we used the Granger causality test. We considered the causation of two different search query trends related to dine-in restaurants and bars on daily positive cases in the US states and territories with the 10 highest and 10 lowest numbers of daily new cases of COVID-19. In addition, we used Pearson correlations to measure the linear relationships between different trends. Results Our results showed that for states and territories with higher numbers of daily cases, the historical trends in search queries related to bars and restaurants, which mainly occurred after reopening, significantly affected the number of daily new cases on average. California, for example, showed the most searches for restaurants on June 7, 2020; this affected the number of new cases within two weeks after the peak, with a P value of .004 for the Granger causality test. Conclusions Although a limited number of search queries were considered, Google search trends for restaurants and bars showed a significant effect on daily new cases in US states and territories with higher numbers of daily new cases. We showed that these influential search trends can be used to provide additional information for prediction tasks regarding new cases in each region. These predictions can help health care leaders manage and control the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on society and prepare for its outcomes.

Online Search Behaviour of Seeking Support for Obsessive Compulsive Disorder and Its Impact on Unemployment Level of the United States: Evidence from Google Search Queries (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chamil W Senarathne ◽  
Wei Jianguo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
Online Search ◽  
Search Behaviour ◽  
Search Queries ◽  
Compulsive Disorder ◽  
Google Search ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age Category

BACKGROUND People have access to a massive volume of up-to-date health information processed by various search engines. Before seeing a doctor, people are used to seek information about identification and support available (e.g. doctors, support centers. forum discussions etc.) for their disorder/s online. Researchers have shown that Internet search queries contain much valuable information about the disequilibrium dynamics of various economics activities (e.g. employment, consumption). OCD as a disorder steals much of the valuable time, energy and effort in day-to-day work life and scholars argues that patients diagnosed with OCD may have higher unemployment rates and lower average income. Except for a handful of work examining the relationship between various disorders (e.g. cancer) and online search volume data, the direct linkage between online search behaviour of seeking support for OCD and unemployment in the United States has been completely ignored in the literature. OBJECTIVE The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of online search behaviour of identifying and seeking support for OCD on unemployment level of the United States at aggregate data and age category level. METHODS This paper analyzes 50 closely related online search terms on identifying and seeking support for OCD from March 2006 to June 2019. Ordinary least squares technique is used to identify the significance of the impact of search behaviour on the unemployment levels of the United States. After screening for instrumentality, a reduced version of regression is derived after treating for multicollinearity among regression variables. In order to eliminate the effect of searches made by people other than employed people who have subsequently been unemployed, a diagnostic regression is run. RESULTS The findings show that online search behaviour of identifying and seeking support for OCD significantly impacts unemployment level of the United States at overall regression level (p<0.01, R^2=73%) and age category level regressions (p<0.01, average R^2=66%). Moreover, the diagnostic test confirms that the regression on aggregate data and age category level data properly explains the underlying relationship as hypothesized because the coefficient of Google search queries driven (the effect) by employed population is positive and highly significant in explaining the unemployment level of the United States (p<0.01, average R^2=90%). CONCLUSIONS The findings of this study are helpful for policymakers and regulators in providing useful inputs for designing and administering programms on prevention and counseling OCD diagnosed working population of the United States. In particular, this paper is helpful in identifying the age categories of male and female employed population who are searching and seeking support on OCD. The government institutions in the USA must utilize online search queries for effective analysis and identification of different age category of people who are in need of support. Since search query data are available at country-level and regional level, this could easily be done by IT rather than population surveys that are costly and time consuming.

Correlations in Trends of Sinusitis-Related Online Google Search Queries in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 482-486
Author(s):  
Dhruv Sharma ◽  
Morgan M. Sandelski ◽  
Jonathan Ting ◽  
Thomas S. Higgins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Real Life ◽  
The United States ◽  
Online Search ◽  
Search Query ◽  
Search Queries ◽  
Disease States ◽  
Postnasal Drip ◽  
Google Search

Background Online search query trends have been shown to correlate with real-life epidemiologic phenomena. Objective The aim of this study was to analyze correlations in trends in Google online search volumes of sinusitis-related terms, including symptomatology and similar disease states. Methods Terms clinically associated with “sinusitis” were determined by consensus. Terms of symptomatology were derived from the validated 22-item sinonasal outcome test (SNOT-22) as well as terminology encountered with the authors’ clinical experience. Terms of disease states that could overlap in symptomatology with sinusitis were then chosen. Google Trends, an online tool for extracting relative frequencies from a public database of search queries, was used to query normalized monthly volumes in the United States from January 2004 to September 2017 of searches related to the topics decided upon by consensus. Bivariate Pearson correlation was used to compare the search queries. Results Online search volumes of “sinusitis” have a distinct seasonal variation, with consistent annual peaks and troughs. In terms of symptomatology, “postnasal drip,” “nasal congestion,” “cough,” “rhinorrhea,” and “sore throat” most highly correlated with “sinusitis” search volumes with statistical significance. “sinusitis” search query volume had a higher positive correlation with “common cold” and “acute sinusitis” than “chronic sinusitis” with regard to disease states. Conclusions Trends in Google online search volumes over time of “sinusitis” symptomatology mimic real-world clinical phenomena and provide insight into the issues affecting the general population.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals The Convergence of Military Conduct and Policing in Israeli-Controlled Territories

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Nir Gazit ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Police Officer ◽  
The United States ◽  
Police Brutality ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Military Forces ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

The murder of George Floyd by a police officer in the United States in May 2020 and the subsequent turmoil, as well as the violence against migrants on the US-Mexican border, have drawn major public and media attention to the phenomenon of police brutality (see, e.g., Levin 2020; Misra 2018; Taub 2020), which is often labeled as ‘militarization of police’. At the same time, in recent years military forces have been increasingly involved in policing missions in civilian environments, both domestically (see, e.g., Kanno-Youngs 2020; Schrader 2020; Shinkman 2020) and abroad. The convergence of military conduct and policing raises intriguing questions regarding the impact of these tendencies on the military and the police, as well as on their legitimacy.

scholarly journals Interdependence of stock exchange indices from leading capital markets: USA, Germany and Japan Stock Market

Bizinfo Blace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-28
Author(s):  
Milena Marjanović ◽  
Ivan Mihailović ◽  
Ognjen Dimitrijević
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Us

In the context of globalization, due to the accelerated process of economic integration of countries and financial markets, the interdependence of the world's leading financial markets is more than obvious. This paper investigates the interdependence of stock exchange indices from leading capital markets in the world: USA, European Union and Asia. Our intention is to determine the direction of causality between the observed capital markets, as well as whether and in what way shocks in one market are transmitted to other markets. Research methodology includes stationarity testing, the existence of cointegration, the application of the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) which is complemented by the Granger causality test and the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis. The results of the research are as follows. Johansen's cointegration test showed that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the observed markets, while Granger's test showed that there is mutual causality between the capital markets of Germany and the United States. As for the Japanese index, previous events in Germany and the United States are statistically significant, but previous events on the Tokyo Stock Exchange cannot explain movements in Germany and the United States. According to the results of the IRF analysis, shocks that may occur in the US market have an almost identical impact on all observed markets. On the other hand, disturbances on the Japanese market are not transmitted to the German and American market, i.e. remain in Japan.

scholarly journals Quebec’s Economic and Commercial Linkages with the United States, 1994–2017

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Earl H. Fry
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
The North ◽  
Nation States ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Big Picture ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the ebb and flow of the Quebec government’s economic and commercial relations with the United States in the period 1994–2017. The topic demonstrates the impact of three major forces on Quebec’s economic and commercial ties with the US: (1) the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which became operational in 1994 and was fully implemented over a 15-year period; (2) the onerous security policies put in place by the US government in the decade following the horrific events of 11 September 2001; and (3) changing economic circumstances in the United States ranging from robust growth to the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The article also indicates that the Quebec government continues to sponsor a wide range of activities in the United States, often more elaborate and extensive than comparable activities pursued by many nation-states with representation in the US. 1 1 Stéphane Paquin, ‘Quebec-U.S. Relations: The Big Picture’, American Review of Canadian Studies 46, no. 2 (2016): 149–61.

scholarly journals Warlords, the United States, and the state of anarchy in Afghanistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Shah Azami
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Building ◽  
The State ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Illegal Mining ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

As part of its “War on Terror”, the United States (US) provided immense sums of money and advanced equipment to Afghan warlords in order to defeat and dismantle the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Nearly two decades after the 2001 US-led intervention in Afghanistan that toppled the Taliban regime, the US continues supporting the warlords in various ways. As the intervention was also aimed at establishing a functioning state and reconstruction of the war-torn country, the US needed the support of local warlords to achieve its goals. However, over time, warlords and warlordism became a major challenge to the postTaliban state-building project and in many ways undermined the overall security and the state monopoly on violence. These warlords, who had been mostly expelled and defeated by the Taliban regime, returned under the aegis of the B52 bombers, recaptured parts of the country and reestablished their fiefdoms with US support and resources. They not only resist giving up the power and prestige they have accumulated over the past few years, but also hamper the effort to improve governance and enact necessary reforms in the country. In addition, many of them run their private militias and have been accused of serious human rights abuses as well as drug trafficking, arms smuggling, illegal mining and extortion in the areas under their control or influence. In many ways, they challenge the government authority and have become a major hurdle to the country’s emerging from lawlessness and anarchy. This paper explores the emergence and reemergence of warlords in Afghanistan as well as the evolution of chaos and anarchy in the country, especially after the US-led intervention of late 2001. It also analyzes the impact of the post-9/11 US support to Afghan warlords and its negative consequences for the overall stability and the US-led state-building process in Afghanistan.

The Legacies of the Second Slavery

2019 ◽  
pp. 11-46
Author(s):  
Rafael Marquese
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
National State ◽  
American Capitalism ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cotton Plantations

Chapter 1 by Rafael Marquese compares the impact of the demise of slavery in the US and Brazil and the transformation of the coffee economies and cotton economies. Marquese connects American Reconstruction with larger global processes to explore the reorganization of the national state and American capitalism that took place in the Era of Globalization (1870–1914). He shows how “Second Slavery,” a concept articulated by Dale Tomich, provides a model for understanding both the integrated trajectory of slavery in Brazil and the United States and the ways the coffee plantationa and economies and the cotton plantations and economies of these nations interacted after emancipation.

Western Europe and the collapse of Bretton Woods

2019 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-300
Author(s):  
Michael De Groot
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
The Us ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Impact

This article contends that Western Europe played a crucial and overlooked role in the collapse of Bretton Woods. Most scholars highlight the role of the United States, focusing on the impact of US balance of payments deficits, Washington’s inability to manage inflation, the weakness of the US dollar, and American domestic politics. Drawing on archival research in Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States, this article argues that Western European decisions to float their currencies at various points from 1969 to 1973 undermined the fixed exchange rate system. The British, Dutch, and West Germans opted to float their currencies as a means of protecting against imported inflation or protecting their reserve assets, but each float reinforced speculators’ expectations that governments would break from their fixed parities. The acceleration of financial globalization and the expansion of the Euromarkets in the 1960s made Bretton Woods increasingly difficult to defend.

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