The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Daw Sr ◽  
Abdallah Hussean El-Bouzedi ◽  
Mohamed Ahmed ◽  
Ali Alejenef
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
African Country ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Epidemiological Pattern ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

BACKGROUND Introduction: COVID-19 can have even more dire consequences in countries with ongoing armed conflict. Libya, the second largest African country, has been involved in a major conflict since 2011. This study analyzed the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya, examined the impact of armed conflict in Libya on the spread of the pandemic, and proposed strategies for dealing with the pandemic during this conflict. OBJECTIVE Introduction: COVID-19 can have even more dire consequences in countries with ongoing armed conflict. Libya, the second largest African country, has been involved in a major conflict since 2011. This study analyzed the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya, examined the impact of armed conflict in Libya on the spread of the pandemic, and proposed strategies for dealing with the pandemic during this conflict. METHODS Methods: We collected the available information on all COVID-19 cases in the different regions of Libya, covering the period from March 25 to May 25, 2020. The cumulative number of cases and the daily new cases are presented in a way to illustrate the patterns and trends of COVID-19, and the effect of the ongoing armed conflict was assessed regionally. RESULTS Results: A total of 698 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya during a period of three months. The number of cases varied from one region to another and was affected by the fighting. The largest number of cases was reported in the southern part of the country, which has been severely affected by the conflict in comparison to the eastern and western parts of the country CONCLUSIONS Conclusion: This study describes the epidemiological pattern of COVID-19 in Libya and how it has been affected by ongoing armed conflict. This conflict seems to have hindered access to populations and thereby masked the true dimensions of the pandemic. Hence, efforts should be combined to combat these consequences.

scholarly journals The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict. 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed A Daw ◽  
Abdallah H El-Bouzedi ◽  
Mohamed O Ahmed ◽  
Ali Alejenef
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
African Country ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Epidemiological Pattern ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

Abstract Introduction: COVID-19 can have even more dire consequences in countries with ongoing armed conflict. Libya, the second largest African country, has been involved in a major conflict since 2011. This study analyzed the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya, examined the impact of the armed conflict in Libya on the spread of the pandemic, and proposes strategies for dealing with the pandemic during this conflict.Methods: We collected the available information on all COVID-19 cases in the different regions of Libya, covering the period from March 25 to May 25, 2020. The cumulative number of cases and the daily new cases are presented in a way to illustrate the patterns and trends of COVID-19 and the effect of the ongoing armed conflict was assessed regionally.Results: A total of 698 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya during a period of three months. The number of cases varied from one region to another and was affected by the fighting. The largest number of cases was reported in the southern part of the country, which has been severely affected by the conflict in comparison to the eastern and western parts of the country.Conclusion: This study describes the epidemiological pattern of COVID-19 in Libya and how it has been affected by the ongoing armed conflict. This conflict seems to have hindered access to populations and thereby masked the true dimensions of the pandemic. Hence, efforts should be combined to combat these consequences.

scholarly journals The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed A Daw ◽  
Abdallah Hussean El-Bouzedi ◽  
Mohamed Omar Ahmed ◽  
Ali Ali Alejenef
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
African Country ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Epidemiological Pattern ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

Abstract Introduction: COVID-19 can have even more dire consequences in countries with ongoing armed conflict. Libya, the second largest African country, has been involved in a major conflict since 2011. This study analyzed the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya, examined the impact of the armed conflict in Libya on the spread of the pandemic, and proposes strategies for dealing with the pandemic during this conflict. Methods: We collected the available information on all COVID-19 cases in the different regions of Libya, covering the period from March 25 to May 25, 2020. The cumulative number of cases and the daily new cases are presented in a way to illustrate the patterns and trends of COVID-19 and the effect of the ongoing armed conflict was assessed regionally. Results: A total of 698 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya during a period of three months. The number of cases varied from one region to another and was affected by the fighting. The largest number of cases was reported in the southern part of the country, which has been severely affected by the conflict in comparison to the eastern and western parts of the country. Conclusion: This study describes the epidemiological pattern of COVID-19 in Libya and how it has been affected by the ongoing armed conflict. This conflict seems to have hindered access to populations and thereby masked the true dimensions of the pandemic. Hence, efforts should be combined to combat these consequences.

scholarly journals The Epidemiological Characteristics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe: Focus on Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 2942
Author(s):  
Giovanni Gabutti ◽  
Erica d’Anchera ◽  
Francesco De Motoli ◽  
Marta Savio ◽  
Armando Stefanati
Keyword(s):  
Social Structures ◽  
World Population ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Key Points ◽  
Reporting Systems ◽  
The World ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

Starting from December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has forcefully entered our lives and profoundly changed all the habits of the world population. The COVID-19 pandemic has violently impacted the European continent, first involving only some European countries, Italy in particular, and then spreading to all member states, albeit in different ways and times. The ways SARS-CoV-2 spreads are still partly unknown; to quantify and adequately respond to the pandemic, various parameters and reporting systems have been introduced at national and European levels to promptly recognize the most alarming epidemiological situations and therefore limit the impact of the virus on the health of the population. The relevant key points to implement adequate measures to face the epidemic include identifying the population groups most involved in terms of morbidity and mortality, identifying the events mostly related to the spreading of the virus and recognizing the various viral mutations. The main objective of this work is to summarize the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and Italy almost a year after the first reported case in our continent. The secondary objectives include the definition of the epidemiological parameters used to monitor the epidemic, the explanation of superspreading events and the description of how the epidemic has impacted on health and social structures, with a particular focus on Italy.

scholarly journals The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed A. Daw
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences.Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19.Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.

scholarly journals Implementation of a Vaccination Program Based on Epidemic Geospatial Attributes: COVID-19 Pandemic in Ohio as a Case Study and Proof of Concept

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1242
Author(s):  
Susanne F. Awad ◽  
Godfrey Musuka ◽  
Zindoga Mukandavire ◽  
Dillon Froass ◽  
Neil J. MacKinnon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Infection Intensity ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Vaccination Program ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
High Infection ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

Geospatial vaccine uptake is a critical factor in designing strategies that maximize the population-level impact of a vaccination program. This study uses an innovative spatiotemporal model to assess the impact of vaccination distribution strategies based on disease geospatial attributes and population-level risk assessment. For proof of concept, we adapted a spatially explicit COVID-19 model to investigate a hypothetical geospatial targeting of COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Ohio, United States, at the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic. The population-level deterministic compartmental model, incorporating spatial-geographic components at the county level, was formulated using a set of differential equations stratifying the population according to vaccination status and disease epidemiological characteristics. Three different hypothetical scenarios focusing on geographical subpopulation targeting (areas with high versus low infection intensity) were investigated. Our results suggest that a vaccine program that distributes vaccines equally across the entire state effectively averts infections and hospitalizations (2954 and 165 cases, respectively). However, in a context with equitable vaccine allocation, the number of COVID-19 cases in high infection intensity areas will remain high; the cumulative number of cases remained >30,000 cases. A vaccine program that initially targets high infection intensity areas has the most significant impact in reducing new COVID-19 cases and infection-related hospitalizations (3756 and 213 infections, respectively). Our approach demonstrates the importance of factoring geospatial attributes to the design and implementation of vaccination programs in a context with limited resources during the early stage of the vaccine rollout.

scholarly journals Effects of prolonged incubation period and centralized quarantine on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China: a modeling study

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenlong Zhu ◽  
Mengxi Zhang ◽  
Jinhua Pan ◽  
Ye Yao ◽  
Weibing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Nucleic Acid ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Nucleic Acid Testing ◽  
Prolonged Incubation ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background From 2 January to 14 February 2021, a local outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province, with a population of 10 million. We analyzed the characteristics of the local outbreak of COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang and evaluated the effects of serial interventions. Methods Publicly available data, which included age, sex, date of diagnosis, and other patient information, were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang. The maximum likelihood method and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method were used to estimate the serial interval and incubation period, respectively. The impact of incubation period and different interventions were simulated using a well-fitted SEIR+q model. Results From 2 January to 14 February 2021, there were 869 patients with symptomatic COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang, and most cases (89.6%) were confirmed before 20 January. Overall, 40.2% of the cases were male, 16.3% were aged 0 to 19 years, and 21.9% were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic but then became symptomatic. The estimated incubation period was 11.6 days (95% CI 10.6, 12.7 days) and the estimated serial interval was 6.6 days (0.025th, 0.975th: 0.6, 20.0 days). The results of the SEIR+q model indicated that a longer incubation period led to a longer epidemic period. If the comprehensive quarantine measures were reduced by 10%, then the nucleic acid testing would need to increase by 20% or more to minimize the cumulative number of cases. Conclusions Incubation period was longer than serial interval suggested that more secondary transmission may occur before symptoms onset. The long incubation period made it necessary to extend the isolation period to control the outbreak. Timely contact tracing and implementation of a centralized quarantine quickly contained this epidemic in Shijiazhuang. Large-scale nucleic acid testing also helped to identify cases and reduce virus transmission.

Emic Perspectives on the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children's Mental Health in Northern Sri Lanka

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wietse Tol ◽  
Fiona Thomas ◽  
Anavarathan Vallipuram ◽  
Sambasivamoorthy Sivayokan ◽  
Mark Jordans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Children’S Mental Health ◽  
Children's Mental Health ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of Emerging Technologies on the Law of Armed Conflict

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Emerging Technologies ◽  
Legal Issues ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Law Of Armed Conflict ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Impact

Emerging technologies have always played an important role in armed conflict. From the crossbow to cyber capabilities, technology that could be weaponized to create an advantage over an adversary has inevitably found its way into military arsenals for use in armed conflict. The weaponization of emerging technologies, however, raises challenging legal issues with respect to the law of armed conflict. As States continue to develop and exploit new technologies, how will the law of armed conflict address the use of these technologies on the battlefield? Is existing law sufficient to regulate new technologies, such as cyber capabilities, autonomous weapons systems, and artificial intelligence? Have emerging technologies fundamentally altered the way we should understand concepts such as law-of-war precautions and the principle of distinction? How can we ensure compliance and accountability in light of technological advancement? This book explores these critical questions while highlighting the legal challenges—and opportunities—presented by the use of emerging technologies on the battlefield.

A Pandemic of Violence? The Impact of COVID-19 on Conflict

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara M.T. Polo
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Event Data ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Advantage ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis article examines the impact and repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of armed conflict around the world. It argues that there are two main ways in which the pandemic is likely to fuel, rather than mitigate, conflict and engender further violence in conflict-prone countries: (1) the exacerbating effect of COVID-19 on the underlying root causes of conflict and (2) the exploitation of the crisis by governments and non-state actors who have used the coronavirus to gain political advantage and territorial control. The article uses data collected in real-time by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and the Johns Hopkins University to illustrate the unfolding and spatial distribution of conflict events before and during the pandemic and combine this with three brief case studies of Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Libya. Descriptive evidence shows how levels of violence have remained unabated or even escalated during the first five months of the pandemic and how COVID-19-related social unrest has spread beyond conflict-affected countries.

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