Implementation of a Vaccination Program Based on Epidemic Geospatial Attributes: COVID-19 Pandemic in Ohio as a Case Study and Proof of Concept

Geospatial vaccine uptake is a critical factor in designing strategies that maximize the population-level impact of a vaccination program. This study uses an innovative spatiotemporal model to assess the impact of vaccination distribution strategies based on disease geospatial attributes and population-level risk assessment. For proof of concept, we adapted a spatially explicit COVID-19 model to investigate a hypothetical geospatial targeting of COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Ohio, United States, at the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic. The population-level deterministic compartmental model, incorporating spatial-geographic components at the county level, was formulated using a set of differential equations stratifying the population according to vaccination status and disease epidemiological characteristics. Three different hypothetical scenarios focusing on geographical subpopulation targeting (areas with high versus low infection intensity) were investigated. Our results suggest that a vaccine program that distributes vaccines equally across the entire state effectively averts infections and hospitalizations (2954 and 165 cases, respectively). However, in a context with equitable vaccine allocation, the number of COVID-19 cases in high infection intensity areas will remain high; the cumulative number of cases remained >30,000 cases. A vaccine program that initially targets high infection intensity areas has the most significant impact in reducing new COVID-19 cases and infection-related hospitalizations (3756 and 213 infections, respectively). Our approach demonstrates the importance of factoring geospatial attributes to the design and implementation of vaccination programs in a context with limited resources during the early stage of the vaccine rollout.

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The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2021.667364 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Mohamed A. Daw

Keyword(s):

Armed Conflict ◽

Early Stage ◽

Armed Conflicts ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

The Novel ◽

Global Pandemic ◽

Large Numbers ◽

Public Data ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact

Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences.Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19.Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.

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Introduction to pertussis transmission and epidemiological dynamics

Pertussis ◽

10.1093/oso/9780198811879.003.0001 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 6-25

Author(s):

Pejman Rohani ◽

Samuel V. Scarpino

Keyword(s):

Control Strategies ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Population Level ◽

Vaccine Uptake ◽

Effective Control ◽

Transmission Potential ◽

Epidemic Period ◽

The Impact ◽

Pertussis Epidemiology

Resolving the long-term, population-level consequences of changes in pertussis epidemiology, arising from bacterial evolution, shifts in vaccine-induced immunity, or changes in surveillance, are key challenges for devising effective control strategies. This chapter reviews some of the key features of pertussis epidemiology, together with the underlying epidemiological principles that set the context for their interpretation. These include the relationship between the age distribution of cases and pertussis transmission potential, the impact of vaccine uptake on incidence, periodicity and age incidence, as well as spatially explicit recurrent pertussis epidemics and associated extinction frequency. This review highlights some of the predictable and consistent aspects of pertussis epidemiology (e.g. the systematic increase in the inter-epidemic period with the introduction of whole-cell vaccines) and a number of important heterogeneities, including variations in contemporary patterns of incidence and geographic spread.

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Effects of prolonged incubation period and centralized quarantine on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China: a modeling study

BMC Medicine ◽

10.1186/s12916-021-02178-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Wenlong Zhu ◽

Mengxi Zhang ◽

Jinhua Pan ◽

Ye Yao ◽

Weibing Wang

Keyword(s):

Nucleic Acid ◽

Incubation Period ◽

Likelihood Method ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Nucleic Acid Testing ◽

Prolonged Incubation ◽

Serial Interval ◽

Epidemic Period ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background From 2 January to 14 February 2021, a local outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province, with a population of 10 million. We analyzed the characteristics of the local outbreak of COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang and evaluated the effects of serial interventions. Methods Publicly available data, which included age, sex, date of diagnosis, and other patient information, were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang. The maximum likelihood method and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method were used to estimate the serial interval and incubation period, respectively. The impact of incubation period and different interventions were simulated using a well-fitted SEIR+q model. Results From 2 January to 14 February 2021, there were 869 patients with symptomatic COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang, and most cases (89.6%) were confirmed before 20 January. Overall, 40.2% of the cases were male, 16.3% were aged 0 to 19 years, and 21.9% were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic but then became symptomatic. The estimated incubation period was 11.6 days (95% CI 10.6, 12.7 days) and the estimated serial interval was 6.6 days (0.025th, 0.975th: 0.6, 20.0 days). The results of the SEIR+q model indicated that a longer incubation period led to a longer epidemic period. If the comprehensive quarantine measures were reduced by 10%, then the nucleic acid testing would need to increase by 20% or more to minimize the cumulative number of cases. Conclusions Incubation period was longer than serial interval suggested that more secondary transmission may occur before symptoms onset. The long incubation period made it necessary to extend the isolation period to control the outbreak. Timely contact tracing and implementation of a centralized quarantine quickly contained this epidemic in Shijiazhuang. Large-scale nucleic acid testing also helped to identify cases and reduce virus transmission.

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The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-79277/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mohamed A Daw ◽

Abdallah H El-Bouzedi ◽

Mohamed O Ahmed ◽

Ali Alejenef

Keyword(s):

Armed Conflict ◽

African Country ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Epidemiological Pattern ◽

Available Information ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics ◽

The Impact ◽

Epidemiological Situation

Abstract Introduction: COVID-19 can have even more dire consequences in countries with ongoing armed conflict. Libya, the second largest African country, has been involved in a major conflict since 2011. This study analyzed the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya, examined the impact of the armed conflict in Libya on the spread of the pandemic, and proposes strategies for dealing with the pandemic during this conflict.Methods: We collected the available information on all COVID-19 cases in the different regions of Libya, covering the period from March 25 to May 25, 2020. The cumulative number of cases and the daily new cases are presented in a way to illustrate the patterns and trends of COVID-19 and the effect of the ongoing armed conflict was assessed regionally.Results: A total of 698 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya during a period of three months. The number of cases varied from one region to another and was affected by the fighting. The largest number of cases was reported in the southern part of the country, which has been severely affected by the conflict in comparison to the eastern and western parts of the country.Conclusion: This study describes the epidemiological pattern of COVID-19 in Libya and how it has been affected by the ongoing armed conflict. This conflict seems to have hindered access to populations and thereby masked the true dimensions of the pandemic. Hence, efforts should be combined to combat these consequences.

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Impact of booster COVID-19 vaccine for Moroccan adults: A discrete age-structured model approach

10.1101/2021.03.14.21253555 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Aayah Hammoumi ◽

Hanane Hmarrass ◽

Redouane Qesmi

Keyword(s):

Vaccine Efficacy ◽

Adult Population ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Vaccine Uptake ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Structured Model ◽

Age Structured ◽

Age Structured Model ◽

The Impact

AbstractPublic health control strategies, such as lockdown, seem to be effective in reducing the spread of the pandemic, but are ineffective as a whole since lockdown is responsible of global economic crisis and badly lived by the majority of children and adults who have developed mental health disorders and familial problems as well. Thus, the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 is needed to control this disease. We have developed a discrete age-structured model and followed the Moroccan vaccination program to assess the impact of booster vaccination targeting Moroccan adults against COVID-19. Using the derived model, we estimated some relevant model parameters related to COVID-19 using collected cumulative mortality and reported Moroccan data. A control reproduction number Rc, which determines the necessary level of vaccine uptake that lead to COVID-19 eradication is determined. Furthermore, a herd immunity threshold above which the population can be protected from COVID-19 infection is derived. Analyzing the model, sufficient and necessary conditions for the eradication of the disease are obtained as well. Next, we perform numerical simulations to study the impact of several uptake levels of the potential vaccine on the persistence and the extinction of COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that the COVID-19 is expected to last past 2021 in the absence of a vaccination program. Moreover, a vaccination of the adult population at rate 0.6% per day needs at least 67% of vaccine efficacy and 90% of immunogenicity rate to eradicate the disease. Using Sinopharm vaccine, the herd immunity can be achieved when about half of Moroccan adult population is immunized against the COVID-19. However, using Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine, less than 60% of adult population must be immunized against the disease to achieve the herd immunity. Finally, if vaccine efficacy is about 80% and the immunogenicity is about 50% then vaccinating adults at rate of 0.6% per day could protect roughly 22% of children from COVID-19 infection.

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Optimizing the impact of low-efficacy influenza vaccines

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1802479115 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 115 (20) ◽

pp. 5151-5156 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Pratha Sah ◽

Jan Medlock ◽

Meagan C. Fitzpatrick ◽

Burton H. Singer ◽

Alison P. Galvani

Keyword(s):

Age Groups ◽

Population Level ◽

The Elderly ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccine Uptake ◽

Influenza Vaccines ◽

Health Practitioner ◽

Specific Distribution ◽

Life Years ◽

The Impact

The efficacy of influenza vaccines varies from one year to the next, with efficacy during the 2017–2018 season anticipated to be lower than usual. However, the impact of low-efficacy vaccines at the population level and their optimal age-specific distribution have yet to be ascertained. Applying an optimization algorithm to a mathematical model of influenza transmission and vaccination in the United States, we determined the optimal age-specific uptake of low-efficacy vaccine that would minimize incidence, hospitalization, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), respectively. We found that even relatively low-efficacy influenza vaccines can be highly impactful, particularly when vaccine uptake is optimally distributed across age groups. As vaccine efficacy declines, the optimal distribution of vaccine uptake shifts toward the elderly to minimize mortality and DALYs. Health practitioner encouragement and concerted recruitment efforts are required to achieve optimal coverage among target age groups, thereby minimizing influenza morbidity and mortality for the population overall.

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211Real-World Data Assessment Plan for a Heat-Not-Burn Tobacco Product: Proof of Concept

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyab168.676 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

Angela van der Plas ◽

Matthew Hankins ◽

Annie Heremans

Keyword(s):

Hospital Admissions ◽

Population Level ◽

Chronic Obstructive ◽

Proof Of Concept ◽

Ecological Studies ◽

Multiple Sources ◽

Real World Data ◽

Japanese Market ◽

World Data ◽

The Impact

Abstract Focus of Presentation Real-world data (RWD) is readily available in Japan through multiple sources. Considering the crucial need to substantiate the beneficial effects of switching from cigarette smoking to heat-not-burn (HNB) products, both at the individual and population levels, the use of RWD seems a viable option. For instance, ecological studies using RWD have assessed the impact of population-level interventions such as smoking bans and their effects on smoking-related diseases and their endpoints As a proof of concept, ecological analyses were performed to assess the rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations and acute Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) hospitalizations before and after the introduction of and HNB product in the Japanese market. Findings Hospital admissions associated with ICD codes for COPD and IHD from 2008 to 2019—5 years before and 4 years after the introduction of the target HNB product in the Japanese market—were retrieved from the MDV database. Referrals were below those predicted from pre-launch trends. Conclusions The use of RWD in assessment of HNB products is viable for ecological studies with the well-known caveats. Their use in exposure-specific studies will become feasible once the systematic collection of exposure to tobacco products and use history is guaranteed. This will greatly increase the range and robustness of the evidence base. Key messages The use of RWD is a practical way of assessing the impact of HNB products in the population as a whole.

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Open innovation in the new context of proof of concepts: evidence from Italy

European Journal of Innovation Management ◽

10.1108/ejim-02-2020-0052 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Mariacarmela Passarelli ◽

Giovanni Catello Landi ◽

Alfio Cariola ◽

Mauro Sciarelli

Keyword(s):

Empirical Analysis ◽

Development Process ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Early Stage ◽

Development Project ◽

Proof Of Concept ◽

Content Type ◽

Main Factors ◽

The Impact ◽

The Empirical Analysis

PurposeThe paper aims to advance knowledge by investigating the main factors that impact on innovation through the co-development process between researchers and firms at the very early stage of proof of concept.Design/methodology/approachThe authors developed an empirical analysis on the proof of concept network project, through a mixed empirical analysis. They explored the main factors that affect the enactment of the co-development process and tested the impact of such factors on the probability for partners to enact a co-development project and generate innovation.FindingsFrom the quantitative analysis comes out that the trust of the research team into the potentiality of the technology, the commitment of researchers concerning the scalability of technology and the IP value issued by external experts have a positive impact on the probability to create a match among partners and generate innovation.Research limitations/implicationsEven if all the population of technologies (108) considered in the project implementation are analyzed, the development of the empirical analysis on a specific project within a single country represents a limitation. Future analysis will concentrate on a larger panel of proof of concept experience across Europe.Practical implicationsThe success of a co-development process between researchers and companies at the embryonic phase of the technology considers the opportunity to exploit the technologies into real products for the market.Originality/valueThis is an empirical analysis of the first Italian proof of concept implementation that deeply investigates which critical factors can enable innovation by enacting a co-development process between researchers and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

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Decline in Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness With Vaccination Program Maturation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Open Forum Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/ofid/ofab069 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

Author(s):

George N Okoli ◽

Florentin Racovitan ◽

Tiba Abdulwahid ◽

Syed K Hyder ◽

Louise Lansbury ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccination ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Population Level ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Influenza B ◽

Inverse Variance ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Difference ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Evidence suggests that repeated influenza vaccination may reduce vaccine effectiveness (VE). Using influenza vaccination program maturation (PM; number of years since program inception) as a proxy for population-level repeated vaccination, we assessed the impact on pooled adjusted end-season VE estimates from outpatient test-negative design studies. Methods We systematically searched and selected full-text publications from January 2011 to February 2020 (PROSPERO: CRD42017064595). We obtained influenza vaccination program inception year for each country and calculated PM as the difference between the year of deployment and year of program inception. We categorized PM into halves (cut at the median), tertiles, and quartiles and calculated pooled VE using an inverse-variance random-effects model. The primary outcome was pooled VE against all influenza. Results We included 72 articles from 11 931 citations. Across the 3 categorizations of PM, a lower pooled VE against all influenza for all patients was observed with PM. Substantially higher reductions were observed in older adults (≥65 years). We observed similar results for A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and influenza B. Conclusions The evidence suggests that influenza VE declines with vaccination PM. This study forms the basis for further discussions and examinations of the potential impact of vaccination PM on seasonal VE.

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The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict. (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.24431 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mohamed Daw Sr ◽

Abdallah Hussean El-Bouzedi ◽

Mohamed Ahmed ◽

Ali Alejenef

Keyword(s):

Armed Conflict ◽

African Country ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Epidemiological Pattern ◽

Available Information ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics ◽

The Impact ◽

Epidemiological Situation

BACKGROUND Introduction: COVID-19 can have even more dire consequences in countries with ongoing armed conflict. Libya, the second largest African country, has been involved in a major conflict since 2011. This study analyzed the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya, examined the impact of armed conflict in Libya on the spread of the pandemic, and proposed strategies for dealing with the pandemic during this conflict. OBJECTIVE Introduction: COVID-19 can have even more dire consequences in countries with ongoing armed conflict. Libya, the second largest African country, has been involved in a major conflict since 2011. This study analyzed the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya, examined the impact of armed conflict in Libya on the spread of the pandemic, and proposed strategies for dealing with the pandemic during this conflict. METHODS Methods: We collected the available information on all COVID-19 cases in the different regions of Libya, covering the period from March 25 to May 25, 2020. The cumulative number of cases and the daily new cases are presented in a way to illustrate the patterns and trends of COVID-19, and the effect of the ongoing armed conflict was assessed regionally. RESULTS Results: A total of 698 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya during a period of three months. The number of cases varied from one region to another and was affected by the fighting. The largest number of cases was reported in the southern part of the country, which has been severely affected by the conflict in comparison to the eastern and western parts of the country CONCLUSIONS Conclusion: This study describes the epidemiological pattern of COVID-19 in Libya and how it has been affected by ongoing armed conflict. This conflict seems to have hindered access to populations and thereby masked the true dimensions of the pandemic. Hence, efforts should be combined to combat these consequences.

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