scholarly journals Interest Rate Policy, Inflation and Economic Growth: A Policy Evaluation of Indonesia, 1969-1997

2004 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iswardono Sardjono Permono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Budget Policy ◽  
The Government

According to Shaw (1973) and McKinnon (1973), the most important element of economic development is financial liberalization. This action will eliminate the distortion, as what the government of Indonesia did on June 1, 1983 through deregulation of banking. The government eliminated the ceiling of credit and gave a full authority to each bank to determine their interest rates. This study looks up to Fry (1995) model to test McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis. The models were regressed with dummy variable. This effort will give illustration or conclusion of the structural change, that happened specifically caused by environmental or policy changes.Generally, insignificant in the relationship between interest rates in national saving and investment in Indonesia could be caused by financial mechanisms those very long and complex channels. That is why real interest rates could not give effect to national saving directly. Export, especially from oil and gas and foreign debt were growth-stimulating factors. Meanwhile, money supply, which supported by tight money policy and balance budget policy caused Indonesian inflation along those periods. The periodically analysis shows that deregulation of June 1983(PAKJUN) were success to mobilize public fund, encourage investment on real sector, and increase the economic growth, but failed to control the inflation rate. The implementation of October 1988 deregulation (PAKTO) had flourished the establishment of new banks and created good competition among them. The competition had no longer on interest rate. Therefore, it can be said also the easy requirements of establishing banks become contra productive for PAKJUN policy, which had laid to the market mechanism.Basically, either PAKJUN or PAKTO was not policies in which urgently implemented in Indonesia. Those financial deregulations were not supported by the existence of deregulation on real sectors, so that the financial deregulations were not effective to achieve their goals.

scholarly journals Perubahan Fluktuatif Struktur Ekonomi Indonesia Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-210
Author(s):  
Herlina Herlina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
The Government ◽  
Loan Interest Rates ◽  
Carry Over

Economic growth in Indonesia has experienced fluctuating changes in 2020, especially entering the Covid-19 pandemic. The subjectivity factor greatly affects Indonesia's economic growth. The important factors that play a role are the low income per person of the population and the large carry-over of the workforce which takes place under pressure from very vulnerable external conditions, which is reflected in the high burden of foreign debt. This is due to being too dependent on imported products which have eroded labor productivity and the empowerment of natural resources has greatly decreased. Economic growth has declined sharply with the spread of the Covid-19 virus which began to enter Indonesia in the second quarter of 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic has greatly affected the movement of the Indonesian economy which tends to decline. This study uses a qualitative method with a descriptive level of explanation, centralized data collection inaccurate social media reports from reliable informant sources, namely the statement of the Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani. The presentation of the research results that in the first quarter (the period from January 2020 to March 2020) economic growth was recorded at a safe rate of plus 2.97%, in the second quarter (April 2020 to June 2020) showed a slump in economic growth, namely minus 5, 32%, there was a significant change, namely a slight increase but still a minus occurred in the third quarter (July 2020 to September 2020) which was minus 1% to minus 2.9%. The negative conditions in the last two quarters resulted in the Indonesian economy falling into a recession. The government must make various important efforts to overcome this recession, namely by deregulating, reducing loan interest rates, increasing interest rates or public savings margins, promoting non-oil and gas exports, expanding job opportunities, restructuring processes due to the still gloomy external situation, increasing taxes, reduction of imported products, handling of the informal sector.

scholarly journals Negative Interest Rate Risk. Atavism or Normalization of Central Banks’ Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 89-116
Author(s):  
Irena Pyka ◽  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

In the face of the global financial crisis, central banks have used unconventional monetary policy instruments. Firstly, they implemented the interest rate policy, lowering base interest rates to a very low (almost zero) level. However, in the following years they did not undertake normalizing activities. The macroeconomic environment required further initiatives. For the first time in history, central banks have adopted Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The main aim of the study is to explore the risk accompanying the negative interest rate policy, aiming at identifying channels and consequences of its impact on the economy. The study verifies the research hypothesis stating that the risk of negative interest rates, so far unrecognized in Theory of Interest Rate, is a consequence of low effectiveness of monetary policy normalization and may adopt systemic nature, by influencing – through different channels – the financial stability and growth dynamics of the modern world economy.

Implications of Central banks’ negative policy rates on financial stability

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 310-320
Author(s):  
Benjamin S. Kay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

Purpose While central bankers have widely discussed the trade-offs of negative interest rates on monetary policy, the consequences of negative rates on financial stability are less well understood. The purpose of this paper is to examine the likely and possible financial stability consequences of a negative rates policy with particular focus on banks, short-term funding markets, foreign exchange markets, asset managers, pension funds and insurers. Design/methodology/approach It draws from international experience with negative interest rates to identify financial stability threats posed to any economy by negative interest rates, and it also highlights where the US experience is likely to differ. Findings In time, financial market threats and other logistical issues of a negative interest rate policy can be managed or overcome. Even cumulatively, these threats are likely to be small as long as the rates remain only modestly negative. However, if the rates remain negative for long periods or they become more sharply negative, the rewards of avoiding negative rates increase. Originality/value Does the negative interest rate policy directly or through these challenges of implementation present a substantial obstacle to achieving financial stability objectives? As policy rates go negative in a greater share of the global economy, the financial stability consequences remain poorly understood and under discussed.

Negative Interest Rate Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. R5-R14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miles S. Kimball
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Paper Currency ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

As long as all interest rates move in tandem – including the rate of return on paper currency – economic theory suggests no important difference between interest rate changes in the positive region and interest rate changes in the negative region. Indeed, in standard models, only the real interest rate and spreads between real interest rates matter. Thus, in most respects, negative interest rate policy is conventional. It is only (a) what needs to be done with paper currency, (b) difficulties in understanding negative rates or (c) institutional features interacting with negative rates that make negative interest rate policy unconventional.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF GDP, INTEREST RATE, WAGE, INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE IN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Badrud Duja ◽  
Heri Supriyanto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Government

Over the past years, Indonesia’s economic growth has been recorded among the top developing countries. The economic growth is believed to contribute to the increase on residential property prices. The main objective of this study is to analyse the influence of determinants of residential property prices in Indonesia by examining the dynamic relationships of residential property prices reflected through the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment interest rates, wages, inflation and the exchange rate against the US dollar using secondary data over a period of thirteen-years between 2002Q1 and 2014Q4. By applying the Engle-Granger co-integration testand the error correction model, this research aims to see the relationship between the variables both in the short- and long-term. The results of the study indicated that macroeconomic factors that were significantly related to Indonesian residential property prices were GDP, wages, inflation, and exchange rates against the US dollar, while the investment interest rate was not included in these factors. Furthermore, based on the results of the regression analysis on research data, government policy in setting minimum wage standards has the greatest impact on residential property prices in the property sector in Indonesia. Thus, the results of this research are expected to provide the government with better viewpoints that will assist them in enacting better policies in the residential property sector.

scholarly journals A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (064) ◽  
pp. 1-40
Author(s):  
Callum Jones ◽  
◽  
Mariano Kulish ◽  
James Morley ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Structural Measure

We propose a shadow policy interest rate based on an estimated structural model that accounts for the zero lower bound. The lower bound constraint, if expected to bind, is contractionary and increases the shadow rate compared to an unconstrained systematic policy response. By contrast, forward guidance and other unconventional policies that extend the expected duration of zero-interest-rate policy are expansionary and decrease the shadow rate. By quantifying these distinct effects, our structural shadow federal funds rate better captures the stance of monetary policy given economic conditions than a shadow rate based only on the term structure of interest rates.

scholarly journals Interest Rate Policy Of Selected Central Banks In Central And Eastern Europe

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Tomasz Grabia
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Theoretical Description ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Growth Rates

The aim of this article is to present and evaluate interest rate policies of three selected central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) from 2001 to 2013. The study consists of an introduction (Section 1) and three main parts. The introduction contains a theoretical description of the role of interest rate policy, the dilemmas connected with it, as well as an analysis of the strategies and goals of monetary policies of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the Czech National Bank (CzNB), and the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) in the context of existing legal and institutional conditions. In turn, the first empirical part (Section 2) examines how the analysed central banks responded to changes in inflation, unemployment, and economic growth rates. The tools of the analysis are the nominal and real interest rates of those banks. The subsequent research part (Section 3) attempts to evaluate the degree of the contractionary nature of interest rate policies in specific countries in the context of the Taylor rule. The text ends with a summary (Section 4) encompassing concise conclusions drawn from the earlier analyses.

scholarly journals Non-Linear Analysis of the Fisher Effect: In the Case of Japan

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Katsuhiro Sugita
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Zero Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy

The Fisher effect has been commonly analyzed to investigate the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation rate, though it is rarely successful in finding the cointegration relationship as the Fisher effect states. In this paper, a Bayesian Markov switching vector error correction model is applied to analyze non-linearity in the Fisher effect in the case of Japan. We find that the Fisher effect holds in one regime although it does not hold in another regime when the nominal interest rate is stable and does not respond against disequilibrium by the monetary policy such as the zero interest rate policy. This model reveals non-linearity in the error correction mechanism of the Fisher effect in Japan.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Shocks in the Russian Economy and Their Macroeconomic Effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 48-75
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate

This section conducts an estimate of the impulse response function of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks in Russia. The estimates are carried out through a dynamic factor model (DFM) of the Russian economy with structural identification of shocks by imposing various sets of sign restrictions on the behavior of endogenous variables. We restricted first the monetary aggregate M2 only (a decrease in response to an increase of the Key rate), and then—simultaneously—M2, real effective exchange rate (an increase), and GDP (a decrease). We estimated the DFM using a large dataset of 58 macroeconomic and financial variables. The estimation results suggest that there is no decreasing response of consumer prices to an exogenous tightening of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Russia. This empirical evidence is supported implicitly by DFM-based predictions that under the imposition of such a decreasing response as an identifying restriction to the model, a positive interest rate shock is not transmitted through the interest rate channel of monetary policy to expected increases of the interest rates on commercial loans and private deposits. However, existing empirical evidence refutes this model-based result. Therefore, this study supports the view according to which a tightening of monetary policy in Russia is inefficient in terms of restraining inflation. In addition, monetary policy shocks negatively affect investments, retail sales, export and import, real wages, and employment. Different economic activities react differently to monetary policy shocks: export-oriented activities are not sensitive to these shocks, whereas domestic pro-cyclical activities (e.g. construction) can be substantially depressed in response to unexpected increases of interest rates. Finally, the expectations of economic agents are also significantly affected by shocks in the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia.

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