scholarly journals Flood Inundation Prediction of Logung River due to the Break of Logung Dam

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Listyo Rini Ekaningtyas
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Maximum Velocity ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Channel Routing ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood ◽  
Simulation Results

The construction of Logung Dam in Kudus Regency is aimed to reduce the inundation area at downstream of Logung River, particularly during the rainy season. Besides, the potential water of Logung Dam is used for for irrigation and non-irrigation services. In order to mitigate the flood disaster that may arise in the downstream area, various preparedness should be established including the identification of flood hazard characteristics that may be caused by the break of the Logung Dam. This paper presents the results of Logung Dam break analysis using the levee pool routing model and the 2-D channel routing of the HEC-RAS 5.0 Version software. The initial value of breach parameter was calculated using the Froehlich’s equation, and variation of breaking times (1, 2, and 3 hours) were applied to study the generated hydrograph based on the corresponding elevation-storage curve. Furthermore, the simulation of channel routing at downstream of the dam was carried out in three different scenarios based on the bridges condition at downstream of the Logung Dam. Scenario 1 assumed that bridges will be safe enough against flood. Scenario 2 assumed that the bridges would only be safe at flood with return period lower than 20 years, whereas the scenario 3 assumed that bridges would be collapsed due to the flood at design flood with several return periods. The simulation results showed that the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) with peak discharge of 1,303.60 m3/s did not generate overtopping. The peak discharge through the dam body was 15,022 m3/s at the first 40 minutes. It took 7 hours and 30 minutes to decrease the water level of the reservoir from +95.2 m to +38 m. In scenario 2, the simulation used 20 years return period flood with velocity in cross section before the Bridge RS 3700 was 7.21 m/s and before Bridge RS 6800 was 5.72 m/s. Furthermore, the 2-D simulation results showed that at the near downstream of the Logung Dam, the maximum depth was 55 m and the maximum velocity was 39 m/s. Several prone areas to flood caused by the dam break are the villages at the left side of the downstream Logung River including Bulung Cangkring, Bulung Kulon, Sidomulyo, Pladen and Jekulo village.

Évaluation des méthodes utilisées pour l'estimation de la crue maximale probable en régions nordiques

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Debs ◽  
D Sparks ◽  
J Rousselle ◽  
S Birikundavyi
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Hydrologic Response ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood

Among all existing methods for estimating extreme floods, the probable maximum flood method is the safest, since it is a flood with a probability of excedance that is theoretically zero. In the early 1970s, this flood was calculated as the combination of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and the probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA). In the 1990s, this combination has been considered to be highly improbable. Experts advise against combining two maximized events and, instead, recommend combining one maximized event with a relatively typical extreme event. This article presents a sensitivity analysis on the return period to be used for the typical extreme event to be combined with the maximized event to obtain a "more realistic" PMF. To achieve this, all the steps of a PMF study were reviewed and applied to the Sainte-Marguerite watershed, i.e., calibration and (or) validation of SSARR model, estimation of the PMP, the PMSA, and the temperature sequence. Different flood scenarios have been simulated including accumulated snowfall corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, and 500 years, followed by PMP and PMSA, followed by precipitation corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, and 500 years. It has been noticed that the use of a return period of 50, 100, or 500 years, to represent the unmaximized extreme event, has little effect on the hydrologic response of the basin. Based on the results of this work the use of a return period of 100 years is recommended.Key words: probable maximum flood, probable maximum precipitation, probable maximum snow accumulation, design flood, SSARR model.

scholarly journals ANALISIS BANJIR DAN TINGGI MUKA AIR PADA RUAS SUNGAI CILIWUNG STA 7+646 s/d STA 15+049

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-49
Author(s):  
Redaksi Tim Jurnal
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Distribution Method ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Method Of Calculation ◽  
Flood Discharge

The problem of flooding in DKI Jakarta is considered normal because almost every year can hit the city of Jakarta especially during the rainy season. In DKI Jakarta itself there are several rivers, one of which is Ciliwung River which is the most influential river in DKI Jakarta which often cause flood every year. The purpose of this research is to know the location of flood / river flood that occurs in the segments along Ciliwung River STA 7 + 646 s / d STA 15 + 049. Data processing begins with the calculation of average rainfall, frequency analysis, and then hour-time rain distribution. Method of calculation of flood discharge using the synthetic unit of Nakayasu and Gama I synthetic data. Rainfall data using 2 observation stations for 3 years rain (2014-2016). In the frequency analysis used Gumbel distribution berdasrkan test results suitability data Smirnov- Kolmogorov and Chi-Square. The result of flood peak discharge design with HSS Nakayasu on return period Q5 = 687,80 m3 / dt, Q10 = 743,21 m3 / dt, Q20 = 796,36 m3 / s, Q50 = 865,15 m3 / dt, Q100 = 916,71 m3 / s, while flood peak discharge design with HSS Gama I on return period Q5 = 347,03 m3 / s, Q10 = 372,12 m3 / s, Q20 = 396,20 m3 / s, Q50 = 427, 36 m3 / s, Q100 = 450,71 m3 / s. The design flood discharge value approaching the measured debit value is HSS Nakayasu. Steps continued using HEC-RAS 4.1.0 software to determine the capacity of river catchment by using Nakayasu discharge. After analyzing using the software, most stationing of the Ciliwung River at STA 7 + 646 to STA 15 + 049 can not accommodate the planned discharge during the 20th anniversary period, hence the need for river improvements in the form of river normalization and elevation of dikes.

scholarly journals Structural and Non-Structural Assessment of Flood Control in Gunting River, Jombang Regency, East Java Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Supriyono Supriyono
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Land Conservation ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Simulation Results

Gunting River which is located in Jombang Regency of East Java Province, Indonesia encounters frequent flood event almost every year. It causes many problems in transportation, health, and economic activity. Thus, flood control which has been implemented in this area needs to evaluate. Design flood was analyzed using HEC-HMS 4.0 Software, while the hydraulic modeling used the unsteady flow simulation model by HEC-RAS 5.0.3 Software. The flood control simulation was conducted with 2 and 10-years return period. The simulation results with the normalization for 2-years (Q2) and 10-years return period (Q10) can effectively accommodate the exceed of flood discharge and lower the depth of runoff depth. The combination of normalization and embankment for can drain the maximum discharge up to 508.75 m3/s, and decrease run-off depth of 2.65 m. The land conservation of 17.8 km2 of the upper area in the watershed has lower the flood depth up to 0.16 m.

scholarly journals Dam Break Analysis of Gembong Dam Using Zhong Xing HY21

2021 ◽  
Vol 930 (1) ◽  
pp. 012091
Author(s):  
K E Milleanisa ◽  
P T Juwono ◽  
R Asmaranto ◽  
M Ayu
Keyword(s):  
Flood Control ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Dam Construction ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Dam Breaks ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
High Hazard ◽  
Inundation Height ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Very High

Abstract Dams are a form of effort to conserve or protect water resources. The function of the Dam as a reservoir for water, irrigation, power generation, and flood control. However, in addition to its huge benefits, dam construction also can endanger the community’s safety, namely in the form of dam breaks. The main causes of dam break are overtopping and piping. So that analysis is needed related to dam break to minimize the impact. Based on the Zhong Xing HY21 software, the most severe impact of the break of the Gembong Dam was due to overtopping using the QInflow PMF design flood of 724.142 m3/s. It resulted in an inundation area of 54.682 km2 with a maximum inundation height of 5.129 m. As a result of the break of the Gembong Dam, 37 villages downstream of the Gembong Dam were flooded. There are 80.819 people affected by this risk. It is stated that all affected villages are at the 4th hazard classification level or very high hazard.

A Geomorphic Approach to the Design of Pipeline Crossings of Mountain Streams

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Jakob ◽  
Michael Porter ◽  
K. Wayne Savigny ◽  
Eugene Yaremko
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Mountain Streams ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Fluvial Process ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Pipeline Crossing

Several hydrological methods are available to determine flood discharge and scour of streams at pipeline crossings. These methods are appropriate for streams dominated by purely hydrological processes, but fail where other, more hazardous processes occur within the design recurrence interval. Several investigations have shown that scour, impact and aggradation associated with debris flows, outburst floods or related phenomena may fundamentally change the parameters needed for proper pipeline crossing design. Depending on the process type, the peak discharge of the hazardous process can exceed that of the design flood (typically 50 to 200 year return period) by a factor of 2 to 50. Similarly, scour or aggradation by a non-fluvial process can exceed the hydrologically-derived estimates by several factors. It is therefore recommended that a geomorphic approach be taken in recognizing and quantifying the potential for non-fluvial processes and that the findings be integrated in the design of pipeline crossings.

scholarly journals Design Floods Considering the Epistemic Uncertainty

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1601
Author(s):  
Radu Drobot ◽  
Aurelian Florentin Draghia ◽  
Daniel Ciuiu ◽  
Romică Trandafir
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Statistical Distributions ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Hydrograph ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
Different Shapes ◽  
Significant Spread ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps

The Design Flood (DF) concept is an essential tool in designing hydraulic works, defining reservoir operation programs, and identifying reliable flood hazard maps. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for deriving a Design Flood hydrograph considering the epistemic uncertainty. Several appropriately identified statistical distributions allow for the acceptable approximation of the frequent values of maximum discharges or flood volumes, and display a significant spread for their medium/low Probabilities of Exceedance (PE). The referred scattering, as a consequence of epistemic uncertainty, defines an area of uncertainty for both recorded data and extrapolated values. In considering the upper and lower values of the uncertainty intervals as limits for maximum discharges and flood volumes, and by further combining them compatibly, a set of DFs as completely defined hydrographs with different shapes result for each PE. The herein proposed procedure defines both uni-modal and multi-modal DFs. Subsequently, such DFs help water managers in examining and establishing tailored approaches for a variety of input hydrographs, which might be typically generated in river basins.

scholarly journals Analysis on the Return Period of “7.26” Rainstorm and Flood in 2017 in the Wudinghe Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 01105
Author(s):  
Shuang-yan Jin ◽  
Wen-yong Gao ◽  
Si-wu Luo ◽  
Ya-jun Gao
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Historical Survey ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Frequency Curve ◽  
Recurrence Period ◽  
Fitting Method ◽  
Curve Fitting Method ◽  
Hydrological Station

The return period of "7.26" rainstorm flood in 2017 in Wudinghe basin is analyzed by the method of P-III distribution. The Lijiahe and Dingjiagou stations with long rainfall observation data in the rainstorm area are selected, and the frequency curve of the annual maximum 24 hours rainfall are established, and the recurrence period of rainfall stations in rainstorm area are estimated according to the parameters determined by the curve fitting method. The frequency curve of the annual maximum peak discharge of Baijiachuan hydrological stations and so on are established, and the return period are analyzed in combination with the historical survey floods. The results show that the return period of Zhaojiabian of heavy rainfall center is about 100 years, and which of the other stations over than 200mm in Wudinghe basin is about 30~90 years; while the return period of the peak discharge of Baijiachuan and Suide hydrological station is about 30 and 20 years respectively.

scholarly journals A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 ◽  
pp. 139-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Adeloye ◽  
F. D. Mwale ◽  
Z. Dulanya
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract. In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

scholarly journals The Simulation Of Return Period Design Flood At KG2 Setail Storage Planning In Yosomulyo Village Gambiran Sub District Banyuwangi

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-42
Author(s):  
Yuda Pratama Gumelar ◽  
Zulis Erwanto ◽  
Andi Wijanarko
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Analysis System

Berdasarkan Peraturan Daerah Kabupaten Banyuwangi Nomor 08 Tahun 2012 Tentang Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah Kabupaten Banyuwangi Tahun 2012 terkait pengembangan waduk dan embung. Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan air irigasi di Desa Yosomulyo diperlukan pembangunan embung Setail KG2. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk mengetahui hasil simulasi debit banjir rancangan kala ulang pada perencanaan Embung Setail KG2 menggunakan bantuan program HEC-RAS. Untuk perhitungan debit banjir kala ulang menggunakan metode Rasional. Untuk simulasi banjir rancangan dengan menggunakan bantuan program HEC-RAS (Hidrology Engineering Center – River Analysis System) dengan memasukkan cross section embung. Dari hasil simulasi banjir dengan bantuan program HEC-RAS pada perencanaan Embung Setail KG2 dengan debit rancangan kala ulang 1 tahun sebesar 41,21 m3/det, kala ulang 2 tahun sebesar 90,30 m3/det, kala ulang 5 tahun sebesar 112,78 m3/det, kala ulang 10 tahun sebesar 125, 16 m3/det, kala ulang 20 tahun sebesar 136,29 m3/det dan kala ulang 25 tahun sebesar 138,63 m3/det, tidak ada air yang meluap pada desain penampang sehingga perencanaan Embung Setail KG2 dapat disimpulkan mampu menampung debit banjir hingga kala ulang 25 tahunan sesuai dengan perencanaan awal dengan volume kapasitas embung 384,37x103 m3.

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