Energy consumption and atmospheric emissions from refined petroleum in Mexico by 2030

One of the basic needs for a country’s economic development is to cover the major fuel demand, and both energy consumption and environmental impacts resulting from the production of such fuels need to be fast and reliable. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to an estimate of energy consumption and atmospheric emissions of some of the pollutant species reported by Pemex Refinacion under different projections. The predictive estimate model was applied considering four different gasoline demand scenarios, as well as different refining technology options to satisfy fuel consumption needs, based on production yields: four different types of refineries, three types of crude oils and eight different processes. Emission estimates were determined applying emission factors, both for the type of fossil fuel energy source used in the direct heating processes for vapor generation, as well by using electric energy. Results show that the equivalent energy consumption relative to the total processes crude is greater in complex refineries (full conversion); however, a greater conversion efficiency allows a smaller volume of crude consumption needed to satisfy the fuel demand with lower emissions relative to other types of technologies. Mexico’s possible refineries need to adapt themselves to different operation scenarios, such as changes in the crude’s yield, the quality of the product, variations in the prices of the crude and of the refined products. Therefore, is important to develop and apply perspectives than maximize productivity and minimize energy consumption, reducing air emissions, in constant change scenarios. Finally, the problem would then be evaluating which would be more convenient to obtain a greater socio-economic benefit: reduce emissions to the atmosphere or to lower operation costs of the refinery.