scholarly journals Rainfall Trend Analysis in Tehsils of Palghar District, Maharashtra State, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 238-253
Author(s):  
Dr. Sumit M. Dhak
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Slope Estimator

Abstract: A detailed trend analysis of monthly and annual rainfall for Tehsils of Palghar district were carried out using 22 years (1998-2019) daily rainfall data taken from Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra State. In this study, to analyse the trend, the non-parametric test (Mann-Kendall test) and Sen’s slope estimator were used. For developing a functional relationship between variables, a linear trend of rainfall data for the studied area evaluated using the linear regression. The results showed that the trend analysis of monthly rainfall has a varied trend of rainfall in the rainy months in tehsil of Palghar District. The month of July significant increasing trend was observed at Jawhar (42.91 mm/year), Vikramgad (29.90 mm/year), Wada (24.06 mm/year), Talasari (31.36 mm/year), Palghar (25.299 mm/year), Mokhada (29.96 mm/year) and Dahanu (38.14 mm/year), whereas non-significant increasing trend 2.76 mm/year was observed at Vasai tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The month of June, August, September and October rainfall did not show any significant trend in tehsil of Palghar District and non significant decreasing as well as non significant increasing trend was observed in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998 – 2019. The result concluded that annual rainfall trend was increased in Jawhar, Vikramgad, Wada, Talasari, Palghar, Mokhada and Dahanu; whereas Vasai tehsil rainfall trend was decreased in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998 -2019. Keywords: Rainfall, Trend Analysis, Mann Kendall’s Test, Sen Slopes, Regression

scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-125
Author(s):  
Virendra N. Barai ◽  
Rohini M. Kalunge
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Trend Magnitude ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Multiple Units ◽  
Rainy Days

This article aims to review studies pertaining to trends in rainfall, rainy days over India. Non-parametric tests such as Sen’s Slope were used as estimator of trend magnitude which was supported by Mann-Kendall test. The findings of various studies indicate variance with respect to the rainfall rate, which contributes to an uncertain picture of the rainfall trend. In the study of monsoon of different locations in India some places showed increasing trends however, there is signifying decrease in trend all over India. It was also mentioned that analysis can vary from for a location if done using different source or types of collection of data. Spatial units range from station results and sub-division to sub-basin/river basins for trend analysis. The outcomes of the different experiments vary and a simple and reliable picture of the trend of rainfall has not appeared. While there can be a non-zero slope value for the multiple units (sub-basins or sub-divisions), few values are statistically important. In a basin-wise trend analysis report, some basins had a declining annual rainfall trend; at a 95 per cent confidence stage, only one basin showed a strong decreasing trend. Out of the six basins exhibiting a rising trend saw a major positive trend in one basin. Many of the basins have the same pattern direction on the annual and seasonal scale for rainfall and rainy days.

scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis and weather forecast accuracy in selected parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fakhri Alam ◽  
Muhammad Salam ◽  
Nasir Ahmad Khalil ◽  
Owais khan ◽  
Masaud Khan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
Nonparametric Techniques

AbstractClimate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various effects on people's environmental and socioeconomic conditions. In the agricultural economy that is susceptible to natural changes, its impact is more profound. Therefore, climate change directly affects society in different ways, and society must pay a price. Climate change, especially the changes in annual temperature and rainfall, has attracted widespread attention worldwide. The variability of these factors or the magnitude of fluctuations varies according to location. Therefore, in the context of climate change, especially in countries dominated by rainfed agriculture, studying the trend of meteorological variables is essential to assess climate-induced variations and propose feasible adaptation approaches. Focusing on this fact is the main goal of this research study was to determine the rainfall trend and the accuracy of predicted temperature at three particular stations of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kp) Province, Pakistan. For this purpose, rainfall and temperature data were provided by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, for the period 1960–2020. Two types of nonparametric techniques, Sen’s slope estimate and the Mann–Kendall test, were applied to determine a trend in the average monthly and annual rainfall. The results of the annual rainfall trend analysis showed that Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan stations showed a positive increasing trend, while the monthly rainfall trend showed a negative decreasing trend for all stations. The trend was statistically significant for Peshawar and Saidu Sharif stations. The accuracy of predicted and actual temperature and rainfall indicated that mostly over-forecast occurred at Saidu Sharif and Peshawar. Most of the precipitation and temperature records showed under forecast for Dera Ismail Khan, but some over-prediction has also occurred. Graphical abstract

scholarly journals Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall in Amaravathi River Basin using Mann-Kendall Test

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.I Sridhar ◽  
A Raviraj
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
North East ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Slope Estimator

The present study aims to detect the trends in annual and seasonal rainfall and its magnitude in Amaravathi basin, Tamil Nadu. In this study, the mean annual and seasonal rainfall in 10 rain gauge stations of Amaravathi basin have been analysed to determine the trend and its magnitude for the period of 1982-2014. The trend analysis is done using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator. The trend analysis results showed wide variations during all the seasons. The increasing trend of rainfall is found to be dominant during north-east monsoon season when compared to other seasons.

scholarly journals Variabilities and Trends of Rainfall, Temperature, and River Flow in Sipi Sub-Catchment on the Slopes of Mt. Elgon, Uganda

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1834
Author(s):  
Justine Kilama Luwa ◽  
Jackson-Gilbert Mwanjalolo Majaliwa ◽  
Yazidhi Bamutaze ◽  
Isa Kabenge ◽  
Petter Pilesjo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Variation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

The variabilities in rainfall and temperature in a catchment affect water availability and sustainability. This study assessed the variabilities in rainfall and temperature (1981–2015) and river flow (1998–2015) in the Sipi sub-catchment on annual and seasonal scales. Observed daily rainfall and temperature data for Buginyanya and Kapchorwa weather stations were obtained from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), while the daily river-flow data for Sipi were obtained from the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE). The study used descriptive statistics, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicate a high coefficient of variation (CV) (CV > 30) for August, September, October, and November (ASON) seasonal rainfall, while annual rainfall had a moderate coefficient of variation (20 ˂ CV ˂ 30). The trend analysis shows that ASON minimum and mean temperatures increased at α = 0.001 and α = 0.05 levels of significance respectively in both stations and over the entire catchment. Furthermore, annual and March, April, and May (MAM) river flows increased at an α = 0.05 level of significance. A total of 14 extremely wet and dry events occurred in the sub-catchment during the post-2000 period, as compared to five in the pre-2000. The significant increased trend of river flow could be attributed to the impacts of climate and land-use changes. Therefore, future studies may need to quantify the impacts of future climate and land-use changes on water resources in the sub-catchment.

scholarly journals Long term rainfall trend over meteorological sub divisions and districts of India

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 439-450
Author(s):  
SURINDER KAUR ◽  
SUMANT KUMAR DIWAKAR ◽  
ASHOK KUMAR DAS
Keyword(s):  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Agriculture Water

In this paper the long term trend of annual and seasonal rainfall over different districts, Meteorological (Met.) sub-divisions and whole India have been studied using the long term rainfall data for the period from 1901 to 2013. The changes in amount and pattern of rainfall have a significant impact on agriculture, water resources management and overall economy of the country. Mann-Kendall test is applied to check the significance of the trend. Linear Regression and Theil-Sen’s non parametric test has been applied to estimate the trend. The study is carried out for 632 districts and 34 sub divisions of India by utilizing the gridded rainfall data (0.25° × 0.25°) over the main land except Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep islands. Many authors have studied that extreme events are increasing but there is no trend in Pan India’s rainfall. It is observed from the annual rainfall analysis 10% of the number of districts are showing significant increasing trend and 13% significant decreasing (mainly in Uttar Pradesh) trend whereas irrespective of high and low rainfall regions, 10% area of the country is showing significant increasing trend and 8% of the area of the country showing significant decreasing trend in annual rainfall. In Meteorological Sub divisions, east & west UP are showing significant negative trend and some of the coastal sub divisions are showing positive trend. It is also observed that the country’s rainfall is not showing any trend.

scholarly journals Rainfall Trend And Seasonality Estimation For Marathwada Region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Himanshu Bana ◽  
R. D Garg
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Estimation Process ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Slope Estimation

Abstract The present research work conducts a seasonality and trend analysis of rainfall over the 8 districts of the Marathwada region India. The study is carried out for the last 39 years ranging from 1980 to 2018. The rainfall data analysed pertains to pre-monsoon season, monsoon season (Kharif), and annual. The trend has been estimated using Sen’s slope estimation process along with Mann-Kendal test. It was observed that the all the Eight districts of the region show a negative trend in the annual rainfall received. Nanded district showed the largest negative trend in the annual rainfall. Out of eight districts seven districts of the region show a decline in rainfall during the monsoon season. The district of Nanded showed largest decline in the rainfall received during monsoon season. The present research work concludes with discussion on possible causes of such estimated trends.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Lake Simcoe watershed rainfall characterisics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabi C. Gautam
Keyword(s):  
Winter Season ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Initial Analysis ◽  
Daily Rainfall Data ◽  
Average Annual Rainfall ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Lake Simcoe

Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority is monitoring the phosphorous loading in Lake Simcoe and to understand the changes in phosphorous loading due to runoff, it is prudent to characterize the rainfall data of the watershed contributing to Lake Simcoe. In this project, hourly and daily rainfall data from 13 different raingage statistics surrounding Lake Simcoe was analyzed to identify event, monthly, seasonal and annual statistics and their trend and thereby to identify the driest and wettest and average annual rainfall. After initial analysis, daily rainfall data from only 4 stations with consistent data for an approximate period of 20 years were chosen for further analysis. The results showed that hydrological year 1995-1996 was the wettest and hydrologic year 1991-1992 was the driest year. Similarly summer season and the month of June were the wettest and winter season and month of February were the driest for the watershed. No significant trend was observed in the yearly and monthly rainfall data while an increasing trend was observed at 3 stations for the winter season.

scholarly journals Analisis Kecenderungan Hujan Tahunan di Wilayah UPT PSDA Pasuruan: Aplikasi Metode Sperman’s Rho, Distribution Free Cusum dan Student’s T Test

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 38-49
Author(s):  
Afro Aransa Sahat ◽  
Indarto Indarto ◽  
Sri Wahyuningsih
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
T Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Distribution Free ◽  
Spearman's Rho ◽  
Spearman’S Rho ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Student’S T Test

Abstrak. Artikel ini memaparkan hasil analisis kecenderungan hujan tahunan di wilayah UPT PSDA di Pasuruan. Data hujan harian dari 69 lokasi digunakan untuk analisis. Periode rekaman data dari tahun 1980 sampai dengan tahun 2015. Analisis statistik dan visualisasi histogram dilakukan untuk menggambarkan variabilitas spasial dan temporal hujan per sub-wilayah. Selanjutnya, analisis kecenderungan menggunakan tiga metode yaitu : spearman’s Rho, distribution free CUSUM, dan student’s t test dilakukan terhadap data hujan tahunan. Visualisasi nilai per stasiun digunakan untuk menggambarkan variabilitas kecenderungan hujan tahunan pada wilayah tersebut. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya perbedaan antar stasiun. Sebagian lokasi menunjukkan kecenderungan positif atau negatif yang menggambarkan adanya kecenderungan jumlah hujan tahunan yang meningkat atau menurun selama dua dekade terakhir. Sebagian besar stasiun tidak menunjukkan adanya kecenderungan positif atau negatif. Penelitian juga menghasilkan peta lokasi kecenderungan positif dan negatif. Application of Spearman’s rho, Distribution Free CUSUM, and Student’s t Test for Rainfall Trend Detection: study at the administrative area of UPT PSDA Pasuruan Abstract. This paper describes the results of rainfall trend analysis in UPT PSDA in Pasuruan. Daily rainfall data from 69 rain stations was used for analysis. The data recording period starts from 1980 to 2015. Statistical analysis and histogram visualization were performed to illustrate the spatial and temporal variability of annual rainfall data between sub-districts. Furthermore, trend analysis used three methods: Spearman's Rho, distribution-free CUSUM, and student's were performed on annual rainfall data. Visualization of stationary trend values is used to describe the variability of annual rainfall trends in the region. The results showed that there were differences between stations. A small proportion of the locations show a positive or negative trend that represents a trend of increased or decreasing annual rainfall over the past two decades. Most stations do not show any positive or negative tendencies. The research also produced a map of the location of the train station showing a positive and negative tendency.

scholarly journals Trend analysis of rainfall data Rangpur, Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Sudip Saha
Keyword(s):  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Mean ◽  
June July ◽  
The Right

The study area lies in Bangladesh that is in the tropical area. The analysis of rainfall data reveals that the average annual rainfall in Rangpur was 2099.25 mm that varies from 427 mm to 3748 mm within the investigated period of time. The highest amount of annual rainfall was recorded in 1984. Heavy rainfall occurs in the month of July of the year. The highest amount of total monthly rainfall was recorded in July, 1987 and measured as 1314 mm. The rainfall trend can be expressed as monsoon rainfall > pre-monsoon rainfall> post monsoon rainfall. The total amount of annual rainfall is strongly significantly positively correlated with the total monthly rainfall of the months of June, July August, September and October and significantly positively correlated with the total monthly rainfall of the month April. The analysis shows that it rained in every year in the month of June as the minimum monthly value for June is greater than zero. Pearson correlation index shows that the mean daily temperature is significantly negatively correlated with daily rainfall which implies that fall of daily mean temperature with the daily rainfall. The increasing trend of annual rainfall suggests the climate change in Rangpur within the investigated period of time. In Rangpur, the value of skewness for all rainfall data are positive that indicate the data are skewed to the right. The positive values of kurtosis indicate that the distribution is not normal. 

scholarly journals Probability and Trend Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in Haryana

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohit Nain ◽  
B. K. Hooda
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Slope Estimator

Study on rainfall pattern of a region over a number of years is very useful for crop planning and irrigations scheduling. The present study deals with the probability and trend analysis of monthly rainfall in selected rain gauge stations scattered over the entire state of Haryana. Probabilities for drought, normal and abnormal events for monthly rainfall have been worked out using monthly rainfall data for 42 years (1970-2011), covering 27 rain gauge stations in the state of Haryana. Analysis indicated that drought months are more probable than normal months while normal months are more probable than abnormal months. The monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change in rainfall over time have been examined using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator tests. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, the significant decrease in annual rainfall was noticed at Ballabgarh and Thanesar, While in monsoon rainfall, a significant decrease was noticed at Thanesar and Narnaul. But Sirsa is the only district which shows a significant increase in annual and monsoon rainfall. In probability analysis the highest per cent of normal, draughts and abnormal months was observed for Ambala, Hassanpur and Dujana respectively.

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