scholarly journals Rainfall Trend And Seasonality Estimation For Marathwada Region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Himanshu Bana ◽  
R. D Garg
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Estimation Process ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Slope Estimation

Abstract The present research work conducts a seasonality and trend analysis of rainfall over the 8 districts of the Marathwada region India. The study is carried out for the last 39 years ranging from 1980 to 2018. The rainfall data analysed pertains to pre-monsoon season, monsoon season (Kharif), and annual. The trend has been estimated using Sen’s slope estimation process along with Mann-Kendal test. It was observed that the all the Eight districts of the region show a negative trend in the annual rainfall received. Nanded district showed the largest negative trend in the annual rainfall. Out of eight districts seven districts of the region show a decline in rainfall during the monsoon season. The district of Nanded showed largest decline in the rainfall received during monsoon season. The present research work concludes with discussion on possible causes of such estimated trends.

TREND ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL, TEMPERATURE AND RUNOFF DATA: A CASE STUDY OF RANGOON WATERSHED IN NEPAL

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 21-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amar Bahadur Pal ◽  
Deepak Khare ◽  
Prabhash Kumar Mishra ◽  
Lakhwinder Singh
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Z Value ◽  
Trend Direction

Purpose: The study has been carried out to investigate and assess the significance of the potential trend of three variables viz. rainfall, temperature and runoff over the Rangoon watershed in Dadeldhura district of Nepal.Methodology: In this study, trend analysis has been carried out on monthly, seasonal and annual basis using the data period between 1979 to 2010 for rainfall and temperature and 1967 to 1996 for runoff. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimate test were applied to identify the existing trend direction and Sen’s slope estimator test were used to detect the trend direction and magnitude of change over time.Main findings: The most important findings are, i) There is warming trends over the Rangoon watershed as Mann-Kendall statistic (Z-value) for most of the maximum temperature values are positive, ii) Rainfall and runoff affected by fluctuations every year though the annual rainfall showing a rising trend whereas runoff showing a falling trend. The rainfall seasonal trend analysis indicates that monsoon and post-monsoon period showed a positive rainfall trend with z statistics of +1.93, and +1.12 respectively, whereas pre-monsoon and winter seasons showed a negative trend with z statistics of -1.02, and -0.54 respectively. However, the annual rainfall in the Rangoon watershed showed a positive trend with a z value of +1.70.Importance of this study: This case study has been undertaken to investigate the trends of important climatic variables viz. rainfall, temperature which have a direct impact on the agriculture of the region.Originality / Novelty of study: This is an original research work undertaken under the M. Tech programme during 2016-17 at IIT Roorkee by the scholar Er. Amar Bahadur Pal from Nepal. 

scholarly journals Rainfall Trend Analysis in Tehsils of Palghar District, Maharashtra State, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 238-253
Author(s):  
Dr. Sumit M. Dhak
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Slope Estimator

Abstract: A detailed trend analysis of monthly and annual rainfall for Tehsils of Palghar district were carried out using 22 years (1998-2019) daily rainfall data taken from Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra State. In this study, to analyse the trend, the non-parametric test (Mann-Kendall test) and Sen’s slope estimator were used. For developing a functional relationship between variables, a linear trend of rainfall data for the studied area evaluated using the linear regression. The results showed that the trend analysis of monthly rainfall has a varied trend of rainfall in the rainy months in tehsil of Palghar District. The month of July significant increasing trend was observed at Jawhar (42.91 mm/year), Vikramgad (29.90 mm/year), Wada (24.06 mm/year), Talasari (31.36 mm/year), Palghar (25.299 mm/year), Mokhada (29.96 mm/year) and Dahanu (38.14 mm/year), whereas non-significant increasing trend 2.76 mm/year was observed at Vasai tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The month of June, August, September and October rainfall did not show any significant trend in tehsil of Palghar District and non significant decreasing as well as non significant increasing trend was observed in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998 – 2019. The result concluded that annual rainfall trend was increased in Jawhar, Vikramgad, Wada, Talasari, Palghar, Mokhada and Dahanu; whereas Vasai tehsil rainfall trend was decreased in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998 -2019. Keywords: Rainfall, Trend Analysis, Mann Kendall’s Test, Sen Slopes, Regression

scholarly journals Analisis Kecenderungan Hujan Tahunan di Wilayah UPT PSDA Pasuruan: Aplikasi Metode Sperman’s Rho, Distribution Free Cusum dan Student’s T Test

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 38-49
Author(s):  
Afro Aransa Sahat ◽  
Indarto Indarto ◽  
Sri Wahyuningsih
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
T Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Distribution Free ◽  
Spearman's Rho ◽  
Spearman’S Rho ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Student’S T Test

Abstrak. Artikel ini memaparkan hasil analisis kecenderungan hujan tahunan di wilayah UPT PSDA di Pasuruan. Data hujan harian dari 69 lokasi digunakan untuk analisis. Periode rekaman data dari tahun 1980 sampai dengan tahun 2015. Analisis statistik dan visualisasi histogram dilakukan untuk menggambarkan variabilitas spasial dan temporal hujan per sub-wilayah. Selanjutnya, analisis kecenderungan menggunakan tiga metode yaitu : spearman’s Rho, distribution free CUSUM, dan student’s t test dilakukan terhadap data hujan tahunan. Visualisasi nilai per stasiun digunakan untuk menggambarkan variabilitas kecenderungan hujan tahunan pada wilayah tersebut. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya perbedaan antar stasiun. Sebagian lokasi menunjukkan kecenderungan positif atau negatif yang menggambarkan adanya kecenderungan jumlah hujan tahunan yang meningkat atau menurun selama dua dekade terakhir. Sebagian besar stasiun tidak menunjukkan adanya kecenderungan positif atau negatif. Penelitian juga menghasilkan peta lokasi kecenderungan positif dan negatif. Application of Spearman’s rho, Distribution Free CUSUM, and Student’s t Test for Rainfall Trend Detection: study at the administrative area of UPT PSDA Pasuruan Abstract. This paper describes the results of rainfall trend analysis in UPT PSDA in Pasuruan. Daily rainfall data from 69 rain stations was used for analysis. The data recording period starts from 1980 to 2015. Statistical analysis and histogram visualization were performed to illustrate the spatial and temporal variability of annual rainfall data between sub-districts. Furthermore, trend analysis used three methods: Spearman's Rho, distribution-free CUSUM, and student's were performed on annual rainfall data. Visualization of stationary trend values is used to describe the variability of annual rainfall trends in the region. The results showed that there were differences between stations. A small proportion of the locations show a positive or negative trend that represents a trend of increased or decreasing annual rainfall over the past two decades. Most stations do not show any positive or negative tendencies. The research also produced a map of the location of the train station showing a positive and negative tendency.

Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Jagtial District of Telangana State

2021 ◽  
pp. 47-59
Author(s):  
N. Navatha ◽  
G. Sreenivas ◽  
R. Umareddy
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Z Value ◽  
Telangana State

Aims: To investigate and assess the significance of the potential trend of two variables viz. rainfall, temperature in Jagtial district of Telangana state. Place and Duration of Study: Data of Daily rainfall and temperature data of 39 years (1980-2019) collected from the meteorological observatory at Regional Agricultural Research Station, Polasa, Jagtial. Methodology: In this study, trend analysis has been carried out on monthly, seasonal and annual basis using the data period between 1980 to 2019 for rainfall and temperature. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimate test were applied to identify the existing trend direction and magnitude of change over time. Results: The rainfall seasonal trend analysis indicates that pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon and winter period showed a negative rainfall trend with z statistics of-1.47, -2.51, -0.55 and-1.38 respectively. However, the annual rainfall showed a negative trend with a z value of -2.53. In the case of Sen’s slope shows that negative trend in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall.  But the significant rising trend of monthly, seasonal average temperature is noticed from 1980 onwards. The annual average maximum temperature in the Jagtial showed an increasing trend (Z value +5.03). An increasing trend in the all seasons will lead to increase in annual mean temperature. The results of minimum temperature shows a rising trend and falling trend observed Monthly. However annual mean minimum temperature in the Jagtial District showed an increasing trend (Z value 0.10). In the case of maximum temperature for the observed period, it showed rising trend (Sen's slope = 0.63) while the minimum temperature trend showed no trend (Sen's slope = 0.02). Conclusion: Time series was carried out using nonparametric M–K test and Sen's slope estimator, which are widely used tests for conducting trend analysis. Therefore, its take into think about the rainfall variability in particular and temperature variability in general of the area into their climate change adaptation approach.

scholarly journals Rainfall Trend and Its Relationship with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in a Restored Semi-Arid Wetland of South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 8919
Author(s):  
Florence M. Murungweni ◽  
Onisimo Mutanga ◽  
John O. Odiyo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Vegetation Productivity ◽  
Rainfall Trends

Clearance of terrestrial wetland vegetation and rainfall variations affect biodiversity. The rainfall trend–NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) relationship was examined to assess the extent to which rainfall affects vegetation productivity within Nylsvley, Ramsar site in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Daily rainfall data measured from eight rainfall stations between 1950 and 2016 were used to generate seasonal and annual rainfall data. Mann-Kendall and quantile regression were applied to assess trends in rainfall data. NDVI was derived from satellite images from between 1984 and 2003 using Zonal statistics and correlated with rainfall of the same period to assess vegetation dynamics. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator showed only one station had a significant increasing rainfall trend annually and seasonally at p < 0.05, whereas all the other stations showed insignificant trends in both rainfall seasons. Quantile regression showed 50% and 62.5% of the stations had increasing annual and seasonal rainfall, respectively. Of the stations, 37.5% were statistically significant at p < 0.05, indicating increasing and decreasing rainfall trends. These rainfall trends show that the rainfall of Nylsvley decreased between 1995 and 2003. The R2 between rainfall and NDVI of Nylsvley is 55% indicating the influence of rainfall variability on vegetation productivity. The results underscore the impact of decadal rainfall patterns on wetland ecosystem change.

scholarly journals Advanced Rainfall Trend Analysis of 117 Years over West Coast Plain and Hill Agro-Climatic Region of India

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1225
Author(s):  
Atul Saini ◽  
Netrananda Sahu ◽  
Pankaj Kumar ◽  
Sridhara Nayak ◽  
Weili Duan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Climatic Region ◽  
Monotonic Trend ◽  
Slope Test ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, the rainfall trend of the West Coast Plain and Hill Agro-Climatic Region is analyzed for 117 years (1901–2017). This region is a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot and known for one of the highest rainfall receiving regions in India. Rainfall grid dataset is used for the analysis of rainfall trends on monthly, seasonal, and decadal time scales. Modified Mann–Kendall’s test, Linear Regression, Innovative Trend Analysis, Sen’s Slope test, Weibull’s Recurrence Interval, Pearson’s Coefficient of Skewness, Consecutive Disparity Index, Kurtosis, and some other important statistical techniques are employed for trend analysis. Results indicate that the rainfall trend is significant in January, July, August, September as well as the Winter season. Among all the significant trends, January and July showed a decreasing rainfall trend. July has the highest contribution (30%) among all the obtained monotonic trend to annual rainfall and coincidentally has the highest trend magnitude. August and September months with a combined contribution of 30% to annual rainfall, show an increasing monotonic trend with high magnitude whereas Winter season shows a monotonic decreasing rainfall trend with comparatively low magnitudes. Decadal analysis along with the study of recurrence interval of excess and deficit years helps to understand the decadal rhythm of trend and the magnitude of extreme monthly and seasonal events. Skewness reveals that rainfall dataset of all the periodic results is right-skewed and the recurrence interval also supports the skewness results. Sharply decreasing rainfall in July and rising rainfall in August and September is predictive of the impact on agriculture, biodiversity and indicates the rainfall regime shift in the region.

scholarly journals 50 year rainfall data analysis and future trend in Saharanpur region

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
VARTIKA SINGH ◽  
PRAMENDRA DEV
Keyword(s):  
Ground Water ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Water Reservoir ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Environmental Implications ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Rainfall

The environmental implications of rainfall pattern in replenishment of ground water system of Saharanpur region, located in western Uttar Pradesh, have been discussed. The mathematical analysis of rainfall dissimilarity of Saharanpur region for a period of 50 year (1959 to 2008) display a quite good range from 497.70 to 4357.5 mm with an annual average rainfall value of 1209.8 mm. The positive trend of departure from the computer value of average annual rainfall exhibits appropriate periods for recharge of ground water reservoir. The recorded data of annual rainfall during the last 3 year reveal values below the calculated annual average rainfall, pointing out negative trend. The statistical analysis of rainfall data involves computations of various statistical parameters, which also support the negative trend of rainfall. The prediction of expected future rainfall trend for a period up to 2018 has been made, which indicates a negative trend. The proposal have been incorporated to implement a plan for augmentation of ground water resource and also to develop possibilities of rainwater harvesting.

scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-125
Author(s):  
Virendra N. Barai ◽  
Rohini M. Kalunge
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Trend Magnitude ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Multiple Units ◽  
Rainy Days

This article aims to review studies pertaining to trends in rainfall, rainy days over India. Non-parametric tests such as Sen’s Slope were used as estimator of trend magnitude which was supported by Mann-Kendall test. The findings of various studies indicate variance with respect to the rainfall rate, which contributes to an uncertain picture of the rainfall trend. In the study of monsoon of different locations in India some places showed increasing trends however, there is signifying decrease in trend all over India. It was also mentioned that analysis can vary from for a location if done using different source or types of collection of data. Spatial units range from station results and sub-division to sub-basin/river basins for trend analysis. The outcomes of the different experiments vary and a simple and reliable picture of the trend of rainfall has not appeared. While there can be a non-zero slope value for the multiple units (sub-basins or sub-divisions), few values are statistically important. In a basin-wise trend analysis report, some basins had a declining annual rainfall trend; at a 95 per cent confidence stage, only one basin showed a strong decreasing trend. Out of the six basins exhibiting a rising trend saw a major positive trend in one basin. Many of the basins have the same pattern direction on the annual and seasonal scale for rainfall and rainy days.

scholarly journals Trend analysis of rainfall using Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope, moving average and least square techniques for Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-25
Author(s):  
Virendra N. Barai ◽  
Rohini M. Kalunge
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Impact

The long-term behaviour of rainfall is necessary to study over space with different time series viz., annual, monthly and weekly as it is one of the most significant climatic variables. Rainfall trend is an important tool which assesses the impact of climate change and provides direction to cope up with its adverse effects on the agriculture. Several studies have been performed to establish the pattern of rainfall over various time periods for different areas that can be used for better agricultural planning, water supply management, etc. Consequently, the present report, entitled “Trend analysis of rainfall in Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra,” was carried out. 13 tahsils of the district of Ahmednagar were selected to carry out trend analysis. The daily rainfall data of 33 years (1980- 2012) of all stations has been processed out study the rainfall variability. The Mann Kendall (MK) Test, Sen’s slope method, moving average method and least square method were used for analysis. The statistical analysis of whole reference time series data highlighted that July and August month contributes highest amount of rainfall at all tahsils. Regarding trend in annual rainfall, these four methods showed increasing trend at most of the tahsils whereas a decreasing trend only at Shrigonda tahsil. For monthly trend analysis, Kopargaon, Newasa, Shevgaon and Shrirampur tahsils showed an increasing trend during July. During August and September month, most of the tahsils i.e. Kopargaon, Nagar, Parner and Sangamner showed increasing trends, whereas in June, only Shrigonda tahsil showed decreasing trend.

scholarly journals Modeling and Trend Analysis of Climatic Variables of Ranchi District, Jharkhand

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-128
Author(s):  
PAWAN JEET ◽  
KN SINGH ◽  
RAJEEV RANJAN KUMAR ◽  
BISHAL GURANG ◽  
AK SINGH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Increasing Trend

In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall, and average annual maximum and minimum temperature for the period 1901-2015 over Ranchi district of Jharkhand, India. Long-term changes in rainfall, temperature was determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and Sen’s slope, and forecasting of time series was determined by ARIMA model. The results revealed that there was significant decrease of average rainfall in the month of February and August while increase in month May and Pre-monsoon season. Average rainfall in the month of February, May, August and Pre-monsoon season showing insignificant increasing as well as decreasing rainfall trend. The average annual maximum and minimum temperature showing decreasing and increasing trend over Ranchi district during the period 1901 to 2015. This paper also describes five-year prediction of rainfall and temperature climatic variables.

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