Climate Change and Environmental Influences on Australia’s Population Distribution

Migration may be increasingly used as adaptation strategy to reduce populations’ exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Conversely, either through lack of information about risks at destinations or as outcome of balancing those risks, people might move to locations where they are more exposed to climatic risk than at their origin locations. Climate damages, whose quantification informs understanding of societal exposure and vulnerability, are typically computed by integrated assessment models (IAMs). Yet migration is hardly included in commonly used IAMs. In this paper, we investigate how border policy, a key influence on international migration flows, affects exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. To this aim, we include international migration and remittance dynamics explicitly in a widely used IAM employing a gravity model and compare four scenarios of border policy. We then quantify effects of border policy on population distribution, income, exposure, and vulnerability and of CO2 emissions and temperature increase for the period 2015 to 2100 along five scenarios of future development and climate change. We find that most migrants tend to move to areas where they are less exposed and vulnerable than where they came from. Our results confirm that migration and remittances can positively contribute to climate change adaptation. Crucially, our findings imply that restrictive border policy can increase exposure and vulnerability, by trapping people in areas where they are more exposed and vulnerable than where they would otherwise migrate. These results suggest that the consequences of migration policy should play a greater part in deliberations about international climate policy.

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Climate change: reshaping mortality differences within the United Kingdom?

British Actuarial Journal ◽

10.1017/s1357321718000193 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 23 ◽

Author(s):

R. Naqvi ◽

M. Hall

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United Kingdom ◽

Older People ◽

Life Insurance ◽

Environmental Influences ◽

Older Age ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Potential Impact

AbstractOlder people are higher contributors to mortality excess and most sensitive to environmental influences, e.g. temperature. As the population ages, variability in temperature is liable to impact a large proportion of life insurance or pension policies in a portfolio. Climate change is projected to significantly affect future mean temperatures. Moreover, future changes in mean temperature are estimated to vary across different regions of the United Kingdom. Accordingly, the present paper investigates the potential impact of future mean temperature changes on older-age mortality in England & Wales and Scotland. The corresponding effect on older-age mortality differences between England & Wales and Scotland is also investigated.

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Multidimensional environmental influences on timing of breeding in a tree swallow population facing climate change

Evolutionary Applications ◽

10.1111/eva.12315 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 8 (10) ◽

pp. 933-944 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Audrey Bourret ◽

Marc Bélisle ◽

Fanie Pelletier ◽

Dany Garant

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Influences ◽

Tree Swallow ◽

Timing Of Breeding

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Poverty, rural population distribution and climate change

Environment and Development Economics ◽

10.1017/s1355770x17000353 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 23 (3) ◽

pp. 234-256 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Edward B. Barbier ◽

Jacob P. Hochard

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Developing Countries ◽

Rural Population ◽

Poverty Reduction ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Market Access ◽

Population Distribution ◽

Remote Areas ◽

Capita Income Growth ◽

Agricultural Regions

AbstractOur spatial analysis indicates that in 2000 over one third of the rural population in developing countries was located on less favored agricultural land and areas, which are constrained by biophysical conditions or poor market access. We examine whether these spatial distributions of rural population in 2000 influence subsequent changes in the rate of poverty from 2000 to 2012 in 83 developing countries. We find no evidence of a direct impact on changes in poverty, but there is a significant indirect impact via the elasticity of poverty reduction with respect to growth. If climate change leads to more people concentrated in these areas, or an increase in unfavorable agricultural regions, then the poverty-reducing impact of overall per capita income growth could be further weakened. Reducing poverty will require targeting rural populations in less favored lands and remote areas and encouraging out-migration.

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Effects of Multi-Scale Climate Change on The Distribution of Invasive Insect Populations and The Development of Ecological Services: A Case Study of Zeugodacus Cucurbitae (Coquillett)

10.21203/rs.3.rs-845374/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yuyang Lian ◽

Aqiang Wang ◽

Bei Zeng ◽

Heming Yang ◽

Jinlei Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Temperature ◽

High Temperatures ◽

Population Distribution ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Small Scale ◽

Distribution Analysis ◽

Short Term ◽

Multi Scale

Abstract In order to clarify the effects of multi-scale climate change on the population distribution and ecological service function of Z.cucurbitae, this paper analyzed its suitable distribution area Z.cucurbitae in a wide scale using the MaxEnt ecological model. Z.cucurbitae were exposed under short-term high temperatures of 33°C, 37°C, 41°C and 45°C for 1h, which were set based on recorded high temperatures in the field. The effects of these temperatures on development and reproduction of Z.cucurbitae in successive three generations were evaluated. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the suitable regions of Z.cucurbitae included most of South America, southeast North America, sub-Saharan Africa, part of Oceania and southern coastal areas of Asia. Under two carbon emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the suitable area of Z.cucurbitae will expand compared to that under current environment and this expansion will generally be northwards. Short-term high temperature was not conducive to the development and reproduction of Z.cucurbitae. The F1 Z.cucurbitae exposed under 45°C for 1h stimulated its oviposition, and the offspring can still continue the population. When the offspring were continuously exposed to short-term high temperature until the F3, they could not oviposit. In the context of climate change, both large-scale and small-scale changes will affect the distribution and population breeding of Z.cucurbitae, which will lead to local sudden outbreak or migration disaster. Therefore, a broad-scale distribution analysis of all populations as a whole will result in a narrow ecological niche and may fail to predict the effects of some local small-scale habitat changes.

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When conflicts get heated, so does the planet: coupled social-climate dynamics under inequality

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2021.1357 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 288 (1959) ◽

pp. 20211357

Author(s):

Jyler Menard ◽

Thomas M. Bury ◽

Chris T. Bauch ◽

Madhur Anand

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Population Distribution ◽

Group Structure ◽

Social Systems ◽

Climate Dynamics ◽

Social Climate ◽

Population Heterogeneity ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Human Populations

Climate dynamics are inextricably linked to processes in social systems that are highly unequal. This suggests a need for coupled social-climate models that capture pervasive real-world asymmetries in the population distribution of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and climate (in)action. Here, we use evolutionary game theory to develop a social-climate model with group structure to investigate how anthropogenic climate change and population heterogeneity coevolve. We find that greater homophily and resource inequality cause an increase in the global peak temperature anomaly by as much as 0.7°C. Also, climate change can structure human populations by driving opinion polarization. Finally, climate mitigation achieved by reducing the cost of mitigation measures paid by individuals tends to be contingent upon socio-economic conditions, whereas policies that achieve communication between different strata of society show climate mitigation benefits across a broad socio-economic regime. We conclude that advancing climate change mitigation efforts can benefit from a social-climate systems perspective.

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When conflicts get heated, so does the planet: social-climate dynamics under inequality

10.1101/2020.09.15.298760 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jyler Menard ◽

Thomas M. Bury ◽

Chris T. Bauch ◽

Madhur Anand

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Population Distribution ◽

Group Structure ◽

Social Systems ◽

Climate Dynamics ◽

Social Climate ◽

Population Heterogeneity ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Human Populations

AbstractClimate dynamics are inextricably linked to processes in social systems that are highly unequal. This suggests a need for coupled social-climate models that capture pervasive real-world asymmetries in the population distribution of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and climate (in)action. Here we develop a simple social-climate model with group structure to investigate how anthropogenic climate change and population heterogeneity co-evolve. We find that greater homophily and resource inequality cause an increase in the global peak temperature anomaly by as much as 0.7°C. Also, climate change can structure human populations by driving opinion polarization. Finally, climate mitigation achieved by reducing the cost of mitigation measures paid by individuals tends to be contingent upon socio-economic conditions, whereas policies that achieve communication between different strata of society show climate mitigation benefits across a broad socio-economic regime. We conclude that advancing climate change mitigation efforts can benefit from a social-climate systems perspective.

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Revisiting the larval dispersal black box in the Anthropocene

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsy097 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 75 (6) ◽

pp. 1841-1848 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Kit Yu Karen Chan ◽

Mary A Sewell ◽

Maria Byrne

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Larval Dispersal ◽

Population Distribution ◽

Global Climate ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Black Box ◽

Study Approach ◽

Theoretical Approaches ◽

The Face ◽

Multi Phase

Abstract Many marine organisms have a multi-phase life history and rely on their planktonic larvae for dispersal. Despite the important role of larvae in shaping population distribution and abundance, the chemical, physical, and biological factors that shape larval fate are still not fully understood. Shedding light into this larval dispersal “black box” has become critical in the face of global climate change, primarily due to the importance of larval dispersal in formulating sound conservation and management strategies. Focusing on two major stressors, warming and acidification, we highlight the limitations of the current species-by-species, lab-based study approach, and particularly the lack of consideration of the larval experience along the dispersive pathway. Measuring organismal responses to environmentally relevant climate change stress demands an improved documentation of the physical and biological conditions that larvae experience through ontogeny, which in turn requires updated empirical and theoretical approaches. While there are meaningful between taxa comparisons to be made by larval ecologists, to peek into the dispersal black box and to investigate the larger scale consequences of altered dispersal requires innovative collaborations between ecologists, oceanographers, molecular biologists, statisticians, and mathematicians.

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Changes expected in Ixodes ricinus temporal and spatial distribution in Europe.

10.1079/9781789249637.0025 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 171-175

Author(s):

Annapaola Rizzoli

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Distribution ◽

Ixodes Ricinus ◽

Population Distribution ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Spatial And Temporal Distribution ◽

Temporal And Spatial Distribution ◽

Change Impact ◽

Distribution In Europe

Abstract This expert opinion discusses the evidence of climate change impact on Ixodes ricinus spatial and temporal distribution in Europe. It also provides predictions on I. ricinus population distribution and seasonal dynamics in relation to future climate change events.

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