scholarly journals The probability of ruin in a reinsurance risk model with m-dependence assumptions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
HOANG NGUYEN HUY ◽  
NGUYEN CHUNG
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Probability Of Ruin ◽  
Numerical Example ◽  
Surplus Process ◽  
Inductive Methods

In this article, we investigate a discrete-time risk model. The risk model includes the quota- (α,β) reinsurance contract effect on the surplus process. The premium process and claim process are assumed to be m-dependent sequences of i.i.d. non-negative random variables. Using Martingale and inductive methods, we obtain upper bounds for ultimate ruin probability of an insurance company. Finally, we present a numerical example to show the efficiency of the methods.

scholarly journals Measuring Durability of Insurance Company Based on Ruin Probability

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Claim Size ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Probability Of Ruin ◽  
Initial Capital ◽  
The Given

In this paper, we present the process of the measuring durability of insurance company, in which, this study focus on the discrete-time under the limited time the company must reserve sufficient initial capital to ensure that probability of ruin does not exceed the given quantity of risk. Therefore the illustration of the minimum initial capital under the specified period for the claim size process to the exponential distribution has explained.

scholarly journals Erlangian Approximations for Finite-Horizon Ruin Probabilities

2002 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soren Asmussen ◽  
Florin Avram ◽  
Miguel Usabel
Keyword(s):  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Fluid Model ◽  
Ruin Probabilities ◽  
Approximation Procedure ◽  
Exponential Form ◽  
Probability Of Ruin ◽  
Phase Type ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
The Mean

AbstractFor the Cramér-Lundberg risk model with phase-type claims, it is shown that the probability of ruin before an independent phase-type time H coincides with the ruin probability in a certain Markovian fluid model and therefore has an matrix-exponential form. When H is exponential, this yields in particular a probabilistic interpretation of a recent result of Avram & Usabel. When H is Erlang, the matrix algebra takes a simple recursive form, and fixing the mean of H at T and letting the number of stages go to infinity yields a quick approximation procedure for the probability of ruin before time T. Numerical examples are given, including a combination with extrapolation.

scholarly journals Some Optimal Dividends Problems

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C.M. Dickson ◽  
Howard R. Waters
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Classical Risk Model ◽  
Optimal Dividends ◽  
Surplus Process ◽  
Dividend Payments ◽  
Constant Dividend Barrier ◽  
De Finetti ◽  
The Classical Risk Model

We consider a situation originally discussed by De Finetti (1957) in which a surplus process is modified by the introduction of a constant dividend barrier. We extend some known results relating to the distribution of the present value of dividend payments until ruin in the classical risk model and show how a discrete time risk model can be used to provide approximations when analytic results are unavailable. We extend the analysis by allowing the process to continue after ruin.

scholarly journals Discrete Time Ruin Probability for Takaful (Islamic Insurance) with Investment and Qard-Hasan (Benevolent Loan) Activities

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dila Puspita ◽  
Adam Kolkiewicz ◽  
Ken Seng Tan
Keyword(s):  
Business Model ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Computational Procedure ◽  
Profit Sharing ◽  
Probability Of Ruin ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Islamic Insurance ◽  
The Impact

The main objectives of this paper are to construct a new risk model for modelling the Hybrid-Takaful (Islamic Insurance) and to develop a computational procedure for calculating the associated ruin probability. Ruin probability is an important study in actuarial science to measure the level of solvency adequacy of an insurance product. The Hybrid-Takaful business model applies a Wakalah (agent based) contract for underwriting activities and Mudharabah (profit sharing) contract for investment activities. We consider the existence of qard-hasan facility provided by the operator (shareholder) as a benevolent loan for the participants’ fund in case of a deficit. This facility is a no-interest loan that will be repaid if the business generates profit in the future. For better investment management, we propose a separate investment account of the participants’ fund. We implement several numerical examples to analyze the impact of some key variables on the Takaful business model. We also find that our proposed Takaful model has a better performance than the conventional counterpart in terms of the probability of ruin.

scholarly journals RUIN PROBABILITY UNDER COMPOUND POISSON MODELS WITH RANDOM DISCOUNT FACTOR

2004 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai W. Ng ◽  
Hailiang Yang ◽  
Lihong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Convergence Result ◽  
Discount Factor ◽  
Insurance Risk ◽  
Compound Poisson ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Surplus Process ◽  
Poisson Models

In this article, we consider a compound Poisson insurance risk model with a random discount factor. This model is also known as the compound filtered Poisson model. By using some stochastic analysis techniques, a convergence result for the discounted surplus process, an expression for the ruin probability, and the upper bounds for the ruin probability are obtained.

scholarly journals Uniform Estimate of the Finite-Time Ruin Probability for All Times in a Generalized Compound Renewal Risk Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingwu Gao ◽  
Na Jin ◽  
Juan Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Finite Time ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Uniform Estimate ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Finite Time Ruin Probability ◽  
Renewal Risk Model ◽  
Renewal Risk ◽  
Compound Renewal Risk Model

We discuss the uniformly asymptotic estimate of the finite-time ruin probability for all times in a generalized compound renewal risk model, where the interarrival times of successive accidents and all the claim sizes caused by an accident are two sequences of random variables following a wide dependence structure. This wide dependence structure allows random variables to be either negatively dependent or positively dependent.

The impact of time discretization on solvency measurement

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hato Schmeiser ◽  
Daliana Luca
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Time Discretization ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Probability Of Ruin ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The One ◽  
Discretization Interval ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study how the discretization interval affects the solvency measurement of a property-liability insurance company. Design/methodology/approach Starting with a basic solvency model, the authors study the impact of the discretization interval on risk measures. The analysis considers the sensitivity of the discrepancy between the risk measures in continuous and discrete time to various parameters, such as the asset-to-liability ratio, the characteristics of the asset and liability processes, as well as the correlation between assets and liabilities. Capital requirements for the one-year planning horizon in continuous vs discrete time are reported as well. The purpose is to report the degree to which the deviations in risk measures, due to the different discretization intervals, can be reduced by means of increasing the frequency with which the risk measures are assessed. Findings The simulation results suggest that the risk measures of an insurance company are consistently underestimated when assessed on an annual basis (as it is currently done under insurance regulation such as Solvency II). The authors complement the analysis with the capital requirements of an insurance company and conclude that more frequent discretization translates into higher capital requirements for the insurance company. Both the probability of ruin and the expected policyholder deficit (EPD) can be reduced through intermediate financial reports. Originality/value The results from our simulation analysis suggest that that the choice of discretization interval has an impact on the risk assessment of an insurance company which uses the probability of ruin and the EPD as risk measures. By assessing the risk measures once a year, both risk measures and the capital requirements are consistently underestimated. Therefore, the recommendation for risk managers is to complement the capital requirements in solvency regulation with sensitivity analyses of the risk measures presented with respect to time discretization. On the one hand, it seems to us that there is value in knowing about the substantial discrepancy between the focused time discrete ruin probability and EPD compared to the continuous version. On the other hand, and if there are no substantial transaction costs associated with more frequent monitoring of solvency figures, a frequent update would be helpful to increase the accuracy of the calculations and reduce the EPD.

scholarly journals Precise Large Deviations for Random Sums of END Random Variables with Dominated Variation

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Chen ◽  
Zhihui Qu
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Large Deviations ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Sums ◽  
Tail Probabilities ◽  
Precise Large Deviations ◽  
Surplus Process ◽  
End Random Variables ◽  
Renewal Risk

We investigate the precise large deviations for random sums of extended negatively dependent random variables with long and dominatedly varying tails. We find out that the asymptotic behavior of precise large deviations of random sums is insensitive to the extended negative dependence. We apply the results to a generalized dependent compound renewal risk model including premium process and claim process and obtain the asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities of the claim surplus process.

scholarly journals Fractional Poisson Process: Long-Range Dependence and Applications in Ruin Theory

2014 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 727-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Biard ◽  
Bruno Saussereau
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Process ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Nonstationary Process ◽  
Long Range Dependence ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Surplus Process ◽  
Fractional Poisson Process ◽  
Renewal Risk ◽  
Dependence Property

We study a renewal risk model in which the surplus process of the insurance company is modelled by a compound fractional Poisson process. We establish the long-range dependence property of this nonstationary process. Some results for ruin probabilities are presented under various assumptions on the distribution of the claim sizes.

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