scholarly journals Asymmetric Price Transmission between Local and Imported Rice Prices in Burkina Faso

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (9) ◽  
pp. 523-531
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Asane Otoo
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
Rice Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
The Impact

The study of how price signals in imported rice market influences prices in the local rice market is essential in understanding the inter-relationship between these prices and how soaring global food prices affect prices of locally produced agricultural commodities. This study uses a set of cointegration and error correction models with symmetric and asymmetric adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium to investigate the long-run relationship between local and imported rice prices and the extent to which imported rice prices are transmitted to local rice prices in Burkina Faso. Using national average consumer prices from January 2000 to June 2011, empirical results from the Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests show that consumer price of local rice is significantly integrated with the imported rice market prices. Both threshold cointegration and asymmetric error correction models indicate that consumer prices of local rice respond asymmetrically to shocks from the imported rice price. Specifically, local rice prices respond rapidly to negative shocks while positive shocks take substantial amount of time to be transmitted. These findings provide clear empirical evidence with respect to the impact of imported rice prices on local rice prices and the role of profit-seeking traders in maintaining or increasing the price wedge between the two prices in Burkina Faso.

GLOBALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CAMBODIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (02) ◽  
pp. 363-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAI S. MAH
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Tests

For the past two decades, since the political situation became stable, Cambodia has recorded a very rapid economic growth rate. In the meantime, globalization has progressed both in terms of the expansion of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. This paper applies small sample cointegration tests and error correction models to reveal the determinants of Cambodia’s rapid economic growth. The cointegration test results support the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables concerned. The error-correction models show that expansion of international trade values has caused the rapid economic growth in Cambodia, regardless of the measure of international trade used.

Global Food Commodity Prices and Domestic Food Inflation: Some Insights from Morocco

New Medit ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed EL GHIN ◽  
Mounir EL-KARIMI
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation ◽  
Global Food ◽  
Domestic Food

This paper examines the world commodity prices pass-through to food inflation in Morocco, over the period 2004-2018, by using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model on monthly data. Several interesting results are found from this study. First, the impact of global food prices on domestic food inflation is shown significant, which reflects the large imported component in the domestic food consumption basket. Second, the transmission effect is found to vary across commodities. Consumer prices of cereals and oils significantly and positively respond to external price shocks, while those of dairy and beverages are weakly influenced. Third, there is evidence of asymmetries in the pass-through from world to domestic food prices, where external positive shocks generate a stronger local prices response than negative ones. This situation is indicative of policy and market distortions, namely the subsidies, price controls, and weak competitive market structures. Our findings suggest that food price movements should require much attention in monetary policymaking, especially that the country has taken preliminary steps towards the adoption of floating exchange rate regime.

scholarly journals Price Transmission and Factors Influencing the Price of Onions in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Yohana James Mgale
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Adjustment Cost ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes the transmission of prices between marketing agents and the factors affecting onion prices at the consumer level. The Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG) was used to test the price transmission by including the impact of the rise and fall of producer, wholesale and retail prices in past periods. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was applied to the factors affecting onion prices. The test results showed that price transmission was asymmetrical in the short and long-run. With regard to factors, the results show that consumer price in the short-run was influenced by wholesale prices, producer prices and the price of fuel while in the long-run it was influenced by wholesale prices, producer price, price of fuel and consumer prices in the previous period (t-1). These results suggest the existence of a short-term adjustment cost and a long-term market power which distorts price transmission.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

Three essays on agricultural trade and policy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Byung Min Soon
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Tariff Rate ◽  
New Method ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Spongiform Encephalopathy ◽  
Rice Market ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Korean Rice

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT AUTHOR'S REQUEST.] The first essay introduces a new method to measure non-tariff barriers (NTBs). NTBs to agricultural trade are believed to have increased while tariffs fell. Hence, measuring NTBs is important and several alternative methods have been used. I develop a method that combines cointegration tests and an equilibrium model. These seemingly disparate methods are used to estimate the size of NTBs and to assess their economic impact. I apply our method to the Russian chicken import ban and find larger impacts compared to a common method based on price gaps. This new method can help trade policy analysts convert implicit economic assumptions of cointegration test results into explicit NTB measures that can explain the observed pattern in time series price data and estimate their impacts. The second essay examines the impact of the impacts of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak in the U.S. on the Japanese beef market. The time-varying Armington model allows us to examine how the BSE outbreak affected the elasticity of substitution and the country of origin bias. Moreover, I estimate beef demands in the case that the BSE outbreak did not occur. The BSE outbreak caused higher demand for Australian beef and lower demand for U.S. beef, while domestic beef demand was only modestly affected. Specifically, the outbreak affected imported frozen beef demands more than imported chilled beef demands. The third essay explores the impact of tariff rate quota (TRQ) on the Korean rice market. Korea replaced its rice import quota with a TRQ in 2015. A structural model representing the Korean rice market is developed to evaluate this new trade policy and examine the possibility of Korean rice imports under uncertainty. Results indicate that rice imports in excess of the current TRQ quantity are unlikely for a range of market conditions. Two scenarios, which are the over-quota tariff rate reduction and the Minimum Market Access (MMA) quantity expansion, show how the market responds to policy changes. In addition, Korean rice imports are sensitive to consumer preferences for different rice types.

scholarly journals The impact of joining the Eurozone on nutrition habits in Lithuania

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
V Dobrovolskij
Keyword(s):  
Vegetable Oil ◽  
Eating Habits ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
World Health ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Fresh Vegetables ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nutrition Habits

Abstract Background Increases in the cost of food often leads to changes in the quantity and type of foods that are purchased. World Health Organization estimates that today’s global food prices rose to the highest level. Numerous research results show that the effect of the conversion of national currencies to the euro on the growth of consumer prices in euro area countries was generally mild and one-off. The aim - to explore the eating habits in 2019 of the Lithuanian population and compare it with results of an eating habits research which was made before the joining euro zone in 2013. Methods The sample under the survey included 1007 of the Lithuania’s population. The interviewing under a questionnaire was carried out in March 2019 using the questionnaire developed for this purpose. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS program package. The results were compared with nutritional habits of the survey done in 2013. Results The results showed that only one-fifth of the Lithuanian adult population thinks about food choices for health benefits - 22 % (in 2013 - 21 %). Food choice is affected by the taste - 37 % (in 2013 - 28%), to a lesser extent - the food price, which represents 24 % (in 2013 - 37%). 67% of the Lithuanian population (in 2013 - 43%) do not always eat at the same time. 59% (in 2013 - 59%) of the adult population eats three times a day. The majority - 98% (in 2013 - 92.9%) of the respondents had a snack between main meals. It is recommended to eat fresh vegetables every day, but this recommendation is shared by 55% (in 2013 - 40%). The milk and milk products are used each day by 51% (37% in 2013) of the population. The majority - 42% (in 2013 - 82%) of adult Lithuanian population most frequently used vegetable oil. Conclusions More people started to choose food by taste, and a decreased number of those who choose by price. There is increased number of people who eat fresh vegetables every day and decreased number of people who use vegetable oil. Key messages There are differents in nutrition habits among Lithuania population before and after joining Eurozone. The study showed the impact of joining the Eurozone on the diet of the population.

scholarly journals A macro assessment of China effects on Malaysian exports and trade balances

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tze-Haw Chan ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Chee-Wooi Hooy
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Collaboration ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to focus on the impact of China's export expansion on Malaysian monthly trading with to her 12 major trading partners over the liberalization era. Design/methodology/approach – The analytical framework comprises of both the export and trade balance models. Unit root and cointegration tests with break and error correction modeling are employed in the analyses. Findings – Regime shifts are evident in the long run where structural break(s) found mostly coincides with the Asia crisis and China's accession into WTO. While the income effects are more apparent in most cases, the real exchanges are rather insignificant and incorrectly signed for Malaysian bilateral trading. Besides, the trade balance estimation is generally more consistent that the Chinese exports have exhibited complementary effects in the long-run, mainly for advanced export destination such as Australia, Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA. On the whole, there is insufficient evidence to support the “PRC competitive threat”. Practical implications – The empirical evidence disfavors currency devaluation for current account correction and reveals that the fear for China effect might be over-projected. Closer regional collaboration and trade integration between the two nations are well expected. Originality/value – The paper assesses the China's crowding out effect and magnitudes of Malaysian export and trade balance elasticities with model specifications that consider structural breaks. The paper also assesses the macro dimension of income and real exchanges effects.

Reconsidering the role of Tobin’s Q

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark J. Holmes ◽  
Nabil Maghrebi
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Tobin’S Q ◽  
Tobin's Q ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium ◽  
Real Investment

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate nonlinearities in the behavior of investment expenditure. Conventional wisdom suggests that Tobin’s Q criterion is an important explanation of investment behaviour that bridges the financial and real sides of the economy. However, the empirical evidence in support of Q as a means of explaining aggregate business investment is rather weak. We answer a number of questions about the relationship between investment expenditure and Q. In particular, is the relationship governed by non-linearities? If so, what is the nature of the non-linearities present? Design/methodology/approach – The rationale for paying closer attention to non-linearities is based on the presence of information asymmetries and possible dependence of adjustments on non-linearities with respect to factors such as fixed costs, threshold effects and irreversibility, which are entertained in the investment literature. Using the non-linear vector error-correction model procedure advocated by Hansen and Seo, we show that in the context of the US economy, investment has a long-run relationship with Q that is based on threshold error correction. Findings – There are asymmetries present with respect to error correction or the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. We find that investment expenditure only responds significantly to long-run disequilibrium from Q during a particular regime. Such a regime is characterised by long-run disequilibrium based on high or rising investment expenditure compared with a relatively weak stock market. Originality/value – The authors provide new insights into the relationship between Tobin’s Q and real investment. In contrast to previous work, they find that error correction based on the adjustment of real investment is regime-specific and function of the size of departures from long-run equilibrium. The tests also allow for the identification of periods when error correction has occurred. Not only are these insights significant for future research on financial crises, market volatility and the impact of debt, but for policymaking purposes as well.

scholarly journals Integration Rice Price And Farmers Welfare With Error Correction Model Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Yogi Makbul
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Support Policy

This research analyzes the short- and long-term influence of rice prices on the welfare of Indonesian farmers using an error correction model. Drawing upon data from Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics, it reveals that rice prices exert significant positive short-run effects and no significant long-run influence on farmers' welfare. These findings extend or refine results from earlier studies that lack the time series perspective of our research. They also support policy intervention by the Indonesian government to increase farmers' welfare and assure food supply.  

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of oil price fluctuations on food price in high and low-income oil exporting countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 458-468
Author(s):  
Chen Ding ◽  
Umar Muhammad Gummi ◽  
Shan-bing Lu ◽  
Asiya Muazu
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Oil exporting economies were the most hit by the recent oil price shock that spills on the food market in an increasingly volatile macroeconomic environment. This paper examines and compares sub-samples [before crisis <br />(2000 Q1–2013 Q1) and during crisis (2013 Q2–2019 Q4)] as to the impact of oil price on food prices in high- and low-income oil-exporting countries. We found an inverse relationship between oil and food prices in the long run based on full samples and sub-samples in high-income countries. The story is different during the crisis period: in low-income countries and all the countries combined, oil and food prices co-move in the long run as measured by the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our findings suggest that economic structure and uncertain events (crises) dictate the behaviour and relationship between food and oil markets. Food and oil prices may drift away in the short-run, but market forces turn them toward equilibrium in the long-run. Moreover, low-income countries are indifferent in both periods due to limited capacity to balance the increasing demand for and supply of food items.

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