Implications of Cost Behavior for Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Ciftci ◽  
Raj Mashruwala ◽  
Dan Weiss

ABSTRACT Recent work in management accounting offers several novel insights into firms' cost behavior. This study explores whether financial analysts appropriately incorporate information on two types of cost behavior in predicting earnings—cost variability and cost stickiness. Since analysts' utilization of information is not directly observable, we model the process of earnings prediction to generate empirically testable hypotheses. The results indicate that analysts “converge to the average” in recognizing both cost variability and cost stickiness, resulting in substantial and systematic earnings forecast errors. Particularly, we find a clear pattern—inappropriate incorporation of available information on cost behavior in earnings forecasts leads to larger errors in unfavorable scenarios than in favorable ones. Overall, enhancing analysts' awareness of the expense side is likely to improve their earnings forecasts, mainly when sales turn to the worse. JEL Classifications: M41; M46; G12.

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Ciftci ◽  
Feras M. Salama

ABSTRACT We investigate the relationship between cost stickiness and management earnings forecasts. Prior research suggests that earnings are more volatile for sticky cost firms resulting in greater earnings forecast errors. The greater forecast errors might increase investors' demand for information and induce managers to issue earnings forecasts. Alternatively, managers might refrain from issuing earnings forecasts for sticky cost firms because greater forecast errors might damage managers' credibility and adversely affect their job security. We find that cost stickiness is positively associated with management earnings forecast issuance, suggesting that the benefits outweigh the costs. Prior research also suggests that cost stickiness has negative implications for earnings. We find a positive association between cost stickiness and management earnings forecast errors, suggesting that managers do not fully incorporate the negative implications of cost stickiness into their forecasts. Finally, we find that analysts' forecast errors for sticky cost firms are greater than managers'. JEL Classifications: M41; M46; G12.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 99-127
Author(s):  
Thomas Kaspereit ◽  
Kerstin Lopatta

ABSTRACT This study introduces a new method for predicting cost elasticity with respect to changes in sales that incorporates cost asymmetry at the firm-year level. The new method is based on widely available factors that are expected to influence cost behavior. The new method is subject to fewer data restrictions than the method proposed by Weiss (2010). By extending the cost variability and cost stickiness (CVCS) model of Banker and Chen (2006), we find that incorporating firm-year-specific proxy measures for upward cost adjustment and cost asymmetry significantly enhances earnings forecasts. However, this improvement in forecast accuracy is not reflected in contemporaneous stock returns, pointing toward a partial understanding of cost behavior by capital markets. We further find that predicted cost stickiness is associated with lower analysts' forecast accuracy and a weaker effect of earnings surprises on market reactions, confirming the results reported in Weiss (2010) for his measure of cost asymmetry. JEL Classifications: M41; G12.


2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangwan Kim ◽  
Andrew P. Schmidt ◽  
Kelly Wentland

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the extent to which analysts incorporate tax-based earnings information into their earnings forecasts relative to other earnings information. We find that analysts' misreaction to tax-based earnings information is distinct from their misreaction to other (nontax) accounting information, on average. We then show that analysts differ in their misestimation of tax and other (nontax) earnings components only when firms have weak information environments; when firms have strong information environments, analysts' forecasts fully incorporate tax-based earnings information and exhibit no difference incorporating tax-based earnings information relative to other accounting information. Our evidence suggests that, on average, forecasting tax-based earnings information is more difficult for analysts relative to forecasting other accounting information. However, access to appropriate information and resources enables analysts to better process tax information. Overall, we contribute to the literature by providing a more complete understanding of the source of analysts' tax-related forecast errors. JEL Classifications: H25; M41; D82; G14. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources identified in the text.


2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph F. Brazel ◽  
Bradley E. Lail

ABSTRACT This study examines how the interplay between financial and nonfinancial measures (NFMs) affects management forecasting behavior. Building on the knowledge that NFMs are typically aligned with actual earnings and are likely incorporated into earnings forecasts, we investigate if the level of divergence between changes in NFMs and contemporaneous changes in earnings influences management forecasting behavior. We hand collect company-specific NFMs disclosed in 10-K filings and describe how a greater divergence between NFMs and earnings (i.e., NFM changes substantially outpacing earnings growth, or vice versa) is associated with greater uncertainty about the underlying business. As such, in more divergent settings, we observe that management is less likely to issue guidance. Consistent with our theory, for managers that do provide guidance in more divergent settings, management forecast errors increase. Last, we provide evidence that external stakeholders can use the level of divergence to predict future management forecasting behavior. JEL Classifications: G14; M40; M41. Data Availability: The data used in this study are publicly available from the sources indicated in the text.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Ciftci ◽  
Taisier A. Zoubi

ABSTRACT We investigate the impact of the magnitude of current sales changes on asymmetric cost behavior. We expect that managers are likely to consider small (large) current sales decreases as temporary (permanent). Therefore, they will be less (more) likely to cut costs for small (large) current sales decreases. Accordingly, we predict and find that, conditional on a prior sales increase, cost stickiness is greater for small current sales changes than for large current sales changes. In addition, prior research suggests that, conditional on a prior sales decrease, slack resources retained from the prior period might lead to cost anti-stickiness. We expect that slack resources retained from the prior period will have a greater (smaller) impact on cost behavior for small (large) current sales changes. Accordingly, we predict and find that, conditional on a prior sales decrease, cost anti-stickiness is greater for small current sales changes than for large current sales changes. JEL Classifications: M41; M46; G12.


2010 ◽  
Vol 85 (4) ◽  
pp. 1441-1471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Weiss

ABSTRACT: This study examines how firms’ asymmetric cost behavior influences analysts’ earnings forecasts, primarily the accuracy of analysts’ consensus earnings forecasts. Results indicate that firms with stickier cost behavior have less accurate analysts’ earnings forecasts than firms with less sticky cost behavior. Furthermore, findings show that cost stickiness influences analysts’ coverage priorities and investors appear to consider sticky cost behavior in forming their beliefs about the value of firms. This study integrates a typical management accounting research topic, cost behavior, with three standard financial accounting topics (namely, accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts, analysts’ coverage, and market response to earnings surprises).


2014 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Abdullah Ammer ◽  
Nurwati A. Ahmad-Zaluki

The main focus of this paper is the earnings forecast, a vital information included in IPO prospectus. Specifically, our paper examined the impact of ethnic diversity groups on the boards of directors and audit committees in terms of earnings forecast accuracy. We are motivated by the lack of prior studies related to investigating IPO earnings forecast. Cross-sectional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) modeling was conducted on 190 Malaysian IPOs from 2002 to 2012. For the evaluation of earnings forecast accuracy, we mathematically used the metric of Absolute Forecast Error (AFER). Moreover, for the test of robustness, we used the metric of Squared Forecast Error (SQFER) as error measurement, as it mostly deals with large errors. The empirical results indicate that the ethnic diversity groups on boards and audit committees have an impact on the accuracy of earnings forecasts. However, the evidence is significant for Chinese and Malay serving on boards but insignificant in terms of Chinese and Malay serving on audit committee. The findings indicate that multi-ethnic groups in Malaysian IPO companies could hinder the capability of IPO companies to achieve accurate earnings forecasts in their prospectuses.


2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Buchman ◽  
C. Patrick Fort

<span>Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) require that firms changing accounting principles must report the change in one of three ways: the cumulative effect method, the retroactive restatement method, or a no-adjustment (prospective) method. The method a company should use is determined by the type of change being made. This raises the following question: can it be demonstrated that one of these methods is better, in some sense, than the other methods? A major problem in evaluating alternative methods of accounting of the same economic event and in deciding which one method should be adopted as GAAP is that it is impossible to objectively determine which of the alternatives is best. However, it is possible to rank alternatives on one dimension of interest-which method minimizes the income forecasts in years after the change. We obtained a sample of forms making accounting changes and formed three portfolios of firms based on the method they used to account for the change in accounting principle. We then compared financial analysts earnings forecast errors for the firms in the three portfolios. After controlling for relevant variables, we found that, in the year firms made accounting changes the firms making the changes requiring retroactive restatement had significantly larger forecast errors than the firms making changes requiring the other forms of disclosure, but in years subsequent to the year of change there were no significant differences in forecast errors. This leads us to the conclusion that, from an earnings forecast accuracy perspective, there is no advantage to calculating and presenting the cumulative effect of an accounting change or in preparing restated or pro-forma financial statements.</span>


2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shipeng Han ◽  
Zabihollah Rezaee ◽  
Ling Tuo

Purpose The literature suggests that management discretion to adjust resources in response to changes in sales can create asymmetric cost behavior and management incentives to move stock prices can influence its decision to release management earnings forecasts (MEF). The purpose of this paper is to investigate the association between a firm’s degree of cost stickiness and its propensity to release MEF. The authors propose that both MEF and cost stickiness are influenced by management strategic choices and provide two possible explanations along with supportive evidence. First, when management is optimistic about future performance, it tends to increase both cost stickiness and is willing to disclose the optimistic expectations through MEF. Second, cost stickiness increases information asymmetry between management and investors, thus management tends to issue earnings forecast to mitigate the perceived information asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach The authors collect firm-level fundamental data from the COMPUSTAT database, and market data from the CRSP database during 2005 and 2016. The data used to measure variables related to institutional ownership and financial analysts are, respectively, obtained from the Thomson Reuters and the I/B/E/S databases. The quarterly MEF data are from two databases. The authors obtain the data before 2012 the from Thomson First Call’s Company Issued Guidance database and manually collect the data between 2012 and 2016 from the Bloomberg database for the largest 3,000 publicly traded US companies. The measurement of cost stickiness is based on the industry-level measurement developed by Anderson et al. (2003) and the firm-level measurements developed by Weiss (2010). The authors construct two measurements, management’s propensity to issue MEF and the frequency of MEF, to capture management’s voluntary disclosure strategy. Findings The analyses of a sample between year 2005 and 2016, indicate that the firm-level cost stickiness is positively associated with the firm’s propensity to issue MEF and the frequency of MEF. Moreover, the authors find that the level of cost stickiness is associated with more favorable earnings news forecasted by management. Additional tests suggest that both information asymmetry and managerial optimism may explain the relationship between cost stickiness and MEF. Finally, the authors find that the association between cost stickiness and MEF behaviors is more pronounced when the resource adjustment cost is high and when the firm efficiency is high. The results are robust after using alternative measurements of cost stickiness and MEF. Originality/value First, this paper attempts to build a bridge between managerial accounting and financial accounting by providing evidence of managerial incentives and discretions that affect both cost structure and earnings. The authors contribute to, and complement, prior studies that primarily disentangle the complicated accounting information system by focusing on either the internal information system or the external information system. Second, the paper complements prior studies that examine cost stickiness and its determinants of asymmetric cost behavior by providing additional evidence for the value-relevance of cost stickiness strategy and its link to MEF releases in mitigating information asymmetry. Third, the findings are also relevant to current debates among policymakers, academia and practitioners regarding modernization of mandatory and voluntary disclosures through discussing the managerial incentive behind the managerial disclosure strategies as reflected in MEF releases (SEC, 2013). Fourth, the authors provide evidence regarding management’s role in influencing cost asymmetry and MEF releases, which support the theoretical argument that management discretions affect the firms’ cost structure and MEF disclosures.


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