Ensemble Modeling Method to Predict Life Expectancy of Population in High-Income Countries: Japan and Finland

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nittaya Kerdprasop ◽  
Kittisak Kerdprasop ◽  
Paradee Chuaybamroong
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Modeling Method ◽  
High Income ◽  
Ensemble Modeling

scholarly journals Influence of Alcohol and Red Meat Consumption on Life Expectancy: Results of 164 Countries from 1992 to 2013

Nutrients ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chhabi Lal Ranabhat ◽  
Myung-Bae Park ◽  
Chun-Bae Kim
Keyword(s):  
Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Meat Consumption ◽  
Red Meat ◽  
High Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
High Consumption

Background: High consumption of red meat, which is carcinogenic to humans, and misuse or abuse of alcohol drinking increase premature death and shortened life expectancy. The aim of this study was to examine the association of alcohol and red meat consumption with life expectancy (LE) by analyzing data from 164 countries using an ecological approach. Design: This was a longitudinal ecological study using data from the United Nation’s (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for 164 countries over the period 1992–2013. In regression analysis, the relationship of alcohol and red meat consumption with LE was estimated using a pooled ordinary least squares regression model. Alcohol and red meat consumption were measured every 5 years. Results: The consumption of alcohol and red meat in high-income countries (HIC) was about 4 times (36.8–143.0 kcal/capita/day) and 5 times (11.2–51.9 kcal/capita/day) higher than that in low-income countries (LIC). Red meat and alcohol consumption had a negative estimated effect on LE in HIC (b = −1.616 p = < 0.001 and b = −0.615, p = 0.003). Alcohol consumption was negatively associated with LE for all income groups, while positive relationships were found for all estimates associated with gross national income (GNI). Conclusions: Red meat and alcohol consumption appeared to have a negative impact on LE in high-income countries (HIC) and upper-middle-income countries (UMIC), although it had no significant association with LE in low-income countries (LIC) or lower-middle-income countries (LMIC). This study suggests reviewing the policies on the gradual reduction of alcohol abuse and the high consumption of red meat, particularly HIC and UMIC.

Socioeconomic factors affecting the longevity of the Japanese population: a study for 1980 and 1985

1992 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 497-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eiichi Uchida ◽  
Shunichi Araki ◽  
Katsuyuki Murata
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Socioeconomic Factors ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Japanese Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
High Income ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Males And Females

SummaryThe effects of urbanisation, low income and rejuvenation of the population on life expectancy at birth and at 20, 40 and 65 years of age for males and females in Japan were examined twice, in 1980 and 1985. For males, urbanisation was the major factor determining life expectancy at birth and at age 20 years, and low income was the key determinant of decreased life expectancy except at 65 years of age. For females high income was the factor significantly decreasing life expectancy at 65 years of age in 1980, and rejuvenation of the population inversely influenced life expectancy except at birth in 1985. Life expectancy for all age groups in 1985 was significantly longer than in 1980 for both males and females.

scholarly journals Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lynda Fenton ◽  
Jon Minton ◽  
Julie Ramsay ◽  
Maria Kaye-Bardgett ◽  
Colin Fischbacher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Recent Change ◽  
High Income ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
List Type ◽  
Segmented Regression ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
The Usa

AbstractObjectiveGains in life expectancy have faltered in several high-income countries in recent years. We aim to compare life expectancy trends in Scotland to those seen internationally, and to assess the timing of any recent changes in mortality trends for Scotland.SettingAustria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, England & Wales, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, USA.MethodsWe used life expectancy data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) to calculate the mean annual life expectancy change for 24 high-income countries over five-year periods from 1992 to 2016, and the change for Scotland for five-year periods from 1857 to 2016. One- and two-break segmented regression models were applied to mortality data from National Records of Scotland (NRS) to identify turning points in age-standardised mortality trends between 1990 and 2018.ResultsIn 2012-2016 life expectancies in Scotland increased by 2.5 weeks/year for females and 4.5 weeks/year for males, the smallest gains of any period since the early 1970s. The improvements in life expectancy in 2012-2016 were smallest among females (<2.0 weeks/year) in Northern Ireland, Iceland, England & Wales and the USA and among males (<5.0 weeks/year) in Iceland, USA, England & Wales and Scotland. Japan, Korea, and countries of Eastern Europe have seen substantial gains in the same period. The best estimate of when mortality rates changed to a slower rate of improvement in Scotland was the year to 2012 Q4 for males and the year to 2014 Q2 for females.ConclusionLife expectancy improvement has stalled across many, but not all, high income countries. The recent change in the mortality trend in Scotland occurred within the period 2012-2014. Further research is required to understand these trends, but governments must also take timely action on plausible contributors.Strengths and limitations of this studyThe use of five-year time periods for comparison of life expectancy changes reduces the influence of year-to-year variation on observations.Examining long-term trends addresses concerns that recent life expectancy stalling may be over-emphasised due to notably large gains in the immediately preceding period.The international comparison was limited to the 24 high-income countries for which data were readily available for the relevant period.Analysis of trend data will always be sensitive to the period selected, however segmented regression of the full period of mortality rates available offers an objective method of identifying the timing of a change in trend.

scholarly journals US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (13) ◽  
pp. 6998-7000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil K. Mehta ◽  
Leah R. Abrams ◽  
Mikko Myrskylä
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Drug Overdose ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
High Income ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Drug Deaths ◽  
The Us ◽  
Main Culprit ◽  
Cvd Mortality

After decades of robust growth, the rise in US life expectancy stalled after 2010. Explanations for the stall have focused on rising drug-related deaths. Here we show that a stagnating decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was the main culprit, outpacing and overshadowing the effects of all other causes of death. The CVD stagnation held back the increase of US life expectancy at age 25 y by 1.14 y in women and men, between 2010 and 2017. Rising drug-related deaths had a much smaller effect: 0.1 y in women and 0.4 y in men. Comparisons with other high-income countries reveal that the US CVD stagnation is unusually strong, contributing to a stark mortality divergence between the US and peer nations. Without the aid of CVD mortality declines, future US life expectancy gains must come from other causes—a monumental task given the enormity of earlier declines in CVD death rates. Reversal of the drug overdose epidemic will be beneficial, but insufficient for achieving pre-2010 pace of life expectancy growth.

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