STACKING OF THE SGTM NEURAL-LIKE STRUCTURE WITH RBF LAYER BASED ON GENERATION OF A RANDOM CURTAIN OF ITS HYPERPARAMETERS FOR PREDICTION TASKS

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-55
Author(s):  
R. O. Tkachenko ◽  
◽  
I. V. Izonіn ◽  
V. M. Danylyk ◽  
V. Yu. Mykhalevych ◽  
...  

Improving prediction accuracy by artificial intelligence tools is an important task in various industries, economics, medicine. Ensemble learning is one of the possible options to solve this task. In particular, the construction of stacking models based on different machine learning methods, or using different parts of the existing data set demonstrates high prediction accuracy of the. However, the need for proper selection of ensemble members, their optimal parameters, etc., necessitates large time costs for the construction of such models. This paper proposes a slightly different approach to building a simple but effective ensemble method. The authors developed a new model of stacking of nonlinear SGTM neural-like structures, which is based on the use of only one type of ANN as an element base of the ensemble and the use of the same training sample for all members of the ensemble. This approach provides a number of advantages over the procedures for building ensembles based on different machine learning methods, at least in the direction of selecting the optimal parameters for each of them. In our case, a tuple of random hyperparameters for each individual member of the ensemble was used as the basis of ensemble. That is, the training of each combined SGTM neural-like structure with an additional RBF layer, as a separate member of the ensemble occurs using different, randomly selected values of RBF centers and centersfof mass. This provides the necessary variety of ensemble elements. Experimental studies on the effectiveness of the developed ensemble were conducted using a real data set. The task is to predict the amount of health insurance costs based on a number of independent attributes. The optimal number of ensemble members is determined experimentally, which provides the highest prediction accuracy. The results of the work of the developed ensemble are compared with the existing methods of this class. The highest prediction accuracy of the developed ensemble at satisfactory duration of procedure of its training is established.

Author(s):  
Antônio Diogo Forte Martins ◽  
José Maria Monteiro ◽  
Javam Machado

During the coronavirus pandemic, the problem of misinformation arose once again, quite intensely, through social networks. In Brazil, one of the primary sources of misinformation is the messaging application WhatsApp. However, due to WhatsApp's private messaging nature, there still few methods of misinformation detection developed specifically for this platform. In this context, the automatic misinformation detection (MID) about COVID-19 in Brazilian Portuguese WhatsApp messages becomes a crucial challenge. In this work, we present the COVID-19.BR, a data set of WhatsApp messages about coronavirus in Brazilian Portuguese, collected from Brazilian public groups and manually labeled. Then, we are investigating different machine learning methods in order to build an efficient MID for WhatsApp messages. So far, our best result achieved an F1 score of 0.774 due to the predominance of short texts. However, when texts with less than 50 words are filtered, the F1 score rises to 0.85.


2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-142
Author(s):  
Helle Hein ◽  
Ljubov Jaanuska

In this paper, the Haar wavelet discrete transform, the artificial neural networks (ANNs), and the random forests (RFs) are applied to predict the location and severity of a crack in an Euler–Bernoulli cantilever subjected to the transverse free vibration. An extensive investigation into two data collection sets and machine learning methods showed that the depth of a crack is more difficult to predict than its location. The data set of eight natural frequency parameters produces more accurate predictions on the crack depth; meanwhile, the data set of eight Haar wavelet coefficients produces more precise predictions on the crack location. Furthermore, the analysis of the results showed that the ensemble of 50 ANN trained by Bayesian regularization and Levenberg–Marquardt algorithms slightly outperforms RF.


2019 ◽  
pp. 089443931988844
Author(s):  
Ranjith Vijayakumar ◽  
Mike W.-L. Cheung

Machine learning methods have become very popular in diverse fields due to their focus on predictive accuracy, but little work has been conducted on how to assess the replicability of their findings. We introduce and adapt replication methods advocated in psychology to the aims and procedural needs of machine learning research. In Study 1, we illustrate these methods with the use of an empirical data set, assessing the replication success of a predictive accuracy measure, namely, R 2 on the cross-validated and test sets of the samples. We introduce three replication aims. First, tests of inconsistency examine whether single replications have successfully rejected the original study. Rejection will be supported if the 95% confidence interval (CI) of R 2 difference estimates between replication and original does not contain zero. Second, tests of consistency help support claims of successful replication. We can decide apriori on a region of equivalence, where population values of the difference estimates are considered equivalent for substantive reasons. The 90% CI of a different estimate lying fully within this region supports replication. Third, we show how to combine replications to construct meta-analytic intervals for better precision of predictive accuracy measures. In Study 2, R 2 is reduced from the original in a subset of replication studies to examine the ability of the replication procedures to distinguish true replications from nonreplications. We find that when combining studies sampled from same population to form meta-analytic intervals, random-effects methods perform best for cross-validated measures while fixed-effects methods work best for test measures. Among machine learning methods, regression was comparable to many complex methods, while support vector machine performed most reliably across a variety of scenarios. Social scientists who use machine learning to model empirical data can use these methods to enhance the reliability of their findings.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qifei Zhao ◽  
Xiaojun Li ◽  
Yunning Cao ◽  
Zhikun Li ◽  
Jixin Fan

Abstract Collapsibility of loess is a significant factor affecting engineering construction in loess area, and testing the collapsibility of loess is costly. In this study, A total of 4,256 loess samples are collected from the north, east, west and middle regions of Xining. 70% of the samples are used to generate training data set, and the rest are used to generate verification data set, so as to construct and validate the machine learning models. The most important six factors are selected from thirteen factors by using Grey Relational analysis and multicollinearity analysis: burial depth、water content、specific gravity of soil particles、void rate、geostatic stress and plasticity limit. In order to predict the collapsibility of loess, four machine learning methods: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Subspace Based Support Vector Machine (RSSVM), Random Forest (RF) and Naïve Bayes Tree (NBTree), are studied and compared. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve indicators, standard error (SD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) are used to verify and compare the models in different research areas. The results show that: RF model is the most efficient in predicting the collapsibility of loess in Xining, and its AUC average is above 80%, which can be used in engineering practice.


Author(s):  
Pavel Kikin ◽  
Alexey Kolesnikov ◽  
Alexey Portnov ◽  
Denis Grischenko

The state of ecological systems, along with their general characteristics, is almost always described by indicators that vary in space and time, which leads to a significant complication of constructing mathematical models for predicting the state of such systems. One of the ways to simplify and automate the construction of mathematical models for predicting the state of such systems is the use of machine learning methods. The article provides a comparison of traditional and based on neural networks, algorithms and machine learning methods for predicting spatio-temporal series representing ecosystem data. Analysis and comparison were carried out among the following algorithms and methods: logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting on decision trees, SARIMAX, neural networks of long-term short-term memory (LSTM) and controlled recurrent blocks (GRU). To conduct the study, data sets were selected that have both spatial and temporal components: the values of the number of mosquitoes, the number of dengue infections, the physical condition of tropical grove trees, and the water level in the river. The article discusses the necessary steps for preliminary data processing, depending on the algorithm used. Also, Kolmogorov complexity was calculated as one of the parameters that can help formalize the choice of the most optimal algorithm when constructing mathematical models of spatio-temporal data for the sets used. Based on the results of the analysis, recommendations are given on the application of certain methods and specific technical solutions, depending on the characteristics of the data set that describes a particular ecosystem


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