Psychology and Benfordʼs Law

Benford's Law ◽  
2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce D. Burns ◽  
Jonathan Krygier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Statistical Relationship ◽  
Common Theme ◽  
The Public ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
Natural Data ◽  
Statistical Relationships ◽  
Practical Implications

This chapter outlines recent research showing that people can approximate Benford's law when generating meaningful numbers in psychology. A common theme in recent research into reasoning and decision-making has been that people are influenced by statistical relationships in the environment. However, because it is hard to know the precise statistical relationships an individual has experienced over their lifetime, rarely is it possible to test whether people are truly acting precisely in accord with an unknown naturally occurring statistical relationship. Benford's law provides an interesting test case in this regard because it is a precise statistical relationship that is both widespread and little known to the public. Hence, the chapter reveals that Benford's law has theoretical implications for decision-making research, practical implications for fraud detection, and may help cast light on Benford's law as a property of natural data.

Abiding by the Law? Using Benford’s Law to Examine the Accuracy of Nonprofit Financial Reports

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 548-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heng Qu ◽  
Richard Steinberg ◽  
Ronelle Burger
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Organizational Level ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Forensic Accounting ◽  
Data Form ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
Natural Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Academic Study

Benford’s Law asserts that the leading digit 1 appears more frequently than 9 in natural data. It has been widely used in forensic accounting and auditing to detect potential fraud, but its application to nonprofit data is limited. As the first academic study that applies Benford’s Law to U.S. nonprofit data (Form 990), we assess its usefulness in prioritizing suspicious filings for further investigation. We find close conformity with Benford’s Law for the whole sample, but at the individual organizational level, 34% of the organizations do not conform. Deviations from Benford’s law are smaller for organizations that are more professional, that report positive fundraising and administration expenses, and that face stronger funder oversight. We suggest improved statistical methods and experiment with a new measure of the extent of deviation from Benford’s Law that has promise as a more discriminating screening metric.

scholarly journals The problems of increasing transparency on uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magda Osman ◽  
Amanda J. Heath ◽  
Ragnar Löfstedt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Disease Prevention ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
European Medicines Agency ◽  
Scientific Process ◽  
The Public ◽  
And Control ◽  
Current Guidelines ◽  
Practical Implications

Public regulators (such as European Food Safety Authority, European Medicines Agency, and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) are placing increasing demands on scientists to make uncertainties about their evidence transparent to the public. The stated goal is utilitarian, to inform and empower the public and ensure the accountability of policy and decision-making around the use of scientific evidence. However, it is questionable what constitutes uncertainty around the evidence on any given topic, and, while the goal is laudable, we argue the drive to increase transparency on uncertainty of the scientific process specifically does more harm than good, and may not serve the interests of those intended. While highlighting some of the practical implications of making uncertainties transparent using current guidelines, the aim is to discuss what could be done to make it worthwhile for both public and scientists.

scholarly journals Association of the implementation, use and appropriation of information technologies with decision making in the public sector: An exploration of the case of the mayoralty in Bucaramanga, Colombia

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-118
Author(s):  
H. Gélvez Díaz ◽  
J. F Reyes-Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
The Public ◽  
Gradual Process ◽  
The City ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Natural Way ◽  
Second Use

This investigation explores the association between the implementation, use and appropriation of information technologies in the decision making process in the public sector. The study adopted a quantitative approach with data collected from the application of a questionnaire to 294 employees at the mayoralty of the city of Bucaramanga, Colombia. Results show that understanding information technologies as part of a structured and gradual process can positively influence those who make decisions, facilitating and speeding up their work. The above requires three previous steps: first, to carry out implementations of information technologies in accordance with strategic planning; second, use those implemented technologies in a prolonged way over time; and third, appropriate such technologies to the point where its advantages are taken grasped of in a natural way to obtain effective results in the development of work activities. The practical implications of the influence of information technologies in decision- making in the public sector are to facilitate and expedite the decision-making process of workers who decide, through the implementation of approval channels, the availability and security of information, the historical evidence and the prioritization of resources.

Assessing the omission of records from a data set using Benford’s law

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 798-805 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Carreira ◽  
Carlos Gomes da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Economic Crime ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
Crime Detection ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to estimate the number of records that were omitted from a data set, and to assess its effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach The procedure to estimate the number of records that were omitted from a data set is based on Benford’s law. Empirical experiments are performed to illustrate the application of the procedure. In detail, two simulated Benford-conforming data sets are distorted and the procedure is then used to recover the original patterns of the data sets. Findings The effectiveness of the procedure seems to increase with the degree of conformity of the original data set with Benford’s law. Practical implications This work can be useful in auditing and economic crime detection, namely in identifying tax evasion. Originality/value This work is the first to propose Benford’s law as a tool to detect data evasion.

scholarly journals DETECTING ACCOUNTING ANOMALIES USING BENFORD’S LAW: EVIDENCE FROM THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC SECTOR

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Nooraslinda Abdul Aris ◽  
Rohana Othman ◽  
Muhamad Anas Mohd Bukhori ◽  
Siti Maznah Mohd Arif ◽  
Mohamad Affendi Abdul Malek
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Effective Management ◽  
Accounting Data ◽  
The Public ◽  
Fraud Risk ◽  
Benford's Law

Fraud is an illegal activity that does not discriminate. It affects the global economy as well as all types of organizations. Surveys and reports by ACFE, Deloitte, KPMG and NFA confirmed that the public sector is more vulnerable to fraud compared to the private sector. Comments in the Auditor General’s (AG) Report 2012 concluded the same findings. Thus, with respect to fraud, detection, investigation, and preventive measures are extremely important. While anomalies or red flags act as indicators for the auditor, management and other responsible parties to investigate whether there is real fraud, auditing and statistics remain the two primary strategies for detecting fraud. Taking this perspective, Benford’s Law is an advanced digital analysis useful in uncovering anomalies. This paper evaluates 500 accounting data from public sector agencies in Malaysia using theFirst-Digit, Second-Digit, First-Two Digit, First-Three Digit and Last-Two Digit tests. Results show that Benford’s analysis is a credible analytical tool in identifying and detecting suspicious accounts for further scrutiny of fraud incidences in the public sector. This study represents an initial effort to derive a tool to monitor and detect potential fraud incidences or trends, thereby enabling organizations to curb tendencies toward fraud and thus pilot an initiative towards an effective management of fraud risk exposure.

Radiological safety and assessment of the performance of X-ray systems in veterinary facilities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Economides ◽  
C.J. Hourdakis ◽  
C. Pafilis ◽  
G. Simantirakis ◽  
P. Tritakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Radiation Protection ◽  
Atomic Energy Commission ◽  
Atomic Energy ◽  
Regulatory Control ◽  
Continuous Training ◽  
X Ray ◽  
The Public ◽  
Radiological Safety ◽  
High Level

This paper concerns an analysis regarding the performance of X-ray equipment as well as the radiological safety in veterinary facilities. Data were collected from 380 X-ray veterinary facilities countrywide during the on-site regulatory inspections carried out by the Greek Atomic Energy Commission. The analysis of the results shows that the majority of the veterinary radiographic systems perform within the acceptable limits; moreover, the design and shielding of X-ray rooms as well as the applied procedures ensure a high level of radiological safety for the practitioners, operators and the members of the public. An issue that requires specific attention in the optimization process for the proper implementation of veterinary radiology practices in terms of radiological safety is the continuous training of the personnel. The above findings and the regulatory experience gained were valuable decision-making elements regarding the type of the regulatory control of veterinary radiology practices in the new radiation protection framework.

Biblical Literacy and the English King James Liberal Bible

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-211
Author(s):  
James Crossley
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Biblical Literacy ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Arena ◽  
The Bible ◽  
Liberal Capitalism ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Popular Nationalism ◽  
King James Bible

Using the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible as a test case, this article illustrates some of the important ways in which the Bible is understood and consumed and how it has continued to survive in an age of neoliberalism and postmodernity. It is clear that instant recognition of the Bible-as-artefact, multiple repackaging and pithy biblical phrases, combined with a popular nationalism, provide distinctive strands of this understanding and survival. It is also clear that the KJV is seen as a key part of a proud English cultural heritage and tied in with traditions of democracy and tolerance, despite having next to nothing to do with either. Anything potentially problematic for Western liberal discourse (e.g. calling outsiders “dogs,” smashing babies heads against rocks, Hades-fire for the rich, killing heretics, using the Bible to convert and colonize, etc.) is effectively removed, or even encouraged to be removed, from such discussions of the KJV and the Bible in the public arena. In other words, this is a decaffeinated Bible that has been colonized by, and has adapted to, Western liberal capitalism.

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