The role of financial constraint factors in predicting SME default

Research background: SMEs face financial constraints in their development, which limits their access to external funds, tightens their investment possibilities, and limits their growth. Much research effort has been devoted to understanding the nature and sources of this phenomenon. In sharp contrast to this, very little has been said about the role of these factors in explaining the default probability of these types of enterprises. Understanding such interrelationships could help to adopt policies to alleviate the situation of constrained SMEs and lower their default rates. Purpose of the article: This study analyses the role of financial constraint factors in SME defaults. This is done by utilising the financial constraint factors in a newly derived default prediction model. A comparison of the derived model and other SME default prediction models is carried out to assess the potential of financial constraints in the discrimination power of the model. Methods: In this study, we use the Cox semiparametric model, while leaving the baseline hazard rate unspecified and employing macroeconomic variables as explanatory variables. The discrimination power was addressed in terms of the area under the curve (AUC), resulting in out-of-sample testing. The DeLong test was used to compare the AUC of the created and analysed models. The model was estimated on a set of over 213,731 SMEs from 28 counties, covering the period 2014?2019. Findings & value added: It was found that adopting the financial constraint measures can explain the default of small and medium enterprises with high accuracy; however, they do not explain the default of micro enterprises.

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Financial capital, constraints, partners, and performance: An empirical analysis of Indonesia SMEs

JEMA Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Akuntansi dan Manajemen ◽

10.31106/jema.v18i2.11318 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (2) ◽

pp. 210

Author(s):

I Wayan Widnyana ◽

I Made Dauh Wijana ◽

Almuntasir Almuntasir

Keyword(s):

Financial Performance ◽

Financial Constraints ◽

Small And Medium Enterprises ◽

Value Added ◽

Financial Capital ◽

Moderation Effect ◽

And Performance ◽

Medium Enterprises ◽

The Relationship

Indonesia's small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are considered the backbone of the national economy. However, the fact that SMEs still contribute less to the national gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of value-added, need to be addressed. While previous studies mainly focused on financial (access) constraints as one of the major constraints faced by small enterprises which affect their growth and performances, this study aims to extend the relationship between capital and financial performance of Indonesia SMEs with the moderating effect of financial constraints and partners. This study is different from others as it uses a bigger panel dataset which is about 4.36 million SMEs in Indonesia and is the first to explore the role of financial partners comprehensively. Moreover, the panel regression model with geographic analysis unit uses as a data analysis method. The results of the study show that financial capital has a positive and significant effect on the financial performance of SMEs. Furthermore, while the moderation role of financial partners on the relationship between financial capital and financial performance of Indonesia SMEs was failed to prove, the negative moderation effect of financial constraints was able to prove in this study.

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A comparison of antenatal prediction models for vaginal birth after caesarean section

Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore ◽

10.47102/annals-acadmedsg.202132 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 50 (8) ◽

pp. 606-612

Author(s):

Hester Chang Qi Lau ◽

Michelle E-Jyn Kwek ◽

Ilka Tan ◽

Manisha Mathur ◽

Ann Wright

Keyword(s):

Caesarean Section ◽

Scoring System ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Additive Model ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Scoring Systems ◽

Vaginal Birth ◽

History Of ◽

Vaginal Birth After Caesarean

ABSTRACT Introduction: An antenatal scoring system for vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) categorises patients into a low or high probability of successful vaginal delivery. It enables counselling and preparation before labour starts. The current study aims to evaluate the role of Grobman nomogram and the Kalok scoring system in predicting VBAC success in Singapore. Methods: This is a retrospective study on patients of gestational age 37 weeks 0 day to 41 weeks 0 day who underwent a trial of labour after 1 caesarean section between September 2016 and September 2017 was conducted. Two scoring systems were used to predict VBAC success, a nomogram by Grobman et al. in 2007 and an additive model by Kalok et al. in 2017. Results: A total of 190 patients underwent a trial of labour after caesarean section, of which 103 (54.2%) were successful. The Kalok scoring system (AUC [area under the curve] 0.740) was a better predictive model than Grobman nomogram (AUC 0.664). Patient’s age odds ratio [OR] 0.915, 95% CI [confidence interval] 0.844–0.992), body mass index at booking (OR 0.902, 95% CI 0.845–0.962), and history of successful VBAC (OR 4.755, 95% CI 1.248–18.120) were important factors in predicting VBAC. Conclusion: Neither scoring system was perfect in predicting VBAC among local women. Further customisation of the scoring system to replace ethnicity with the 4 races of Singapore can be made to improve its sensitivity. The factors identified in this study serve as a foundation for developing a population-specific antenatal scoring system for Singapore women who wish to have a trial of VBAC. Keywords: Antenatal scoring system, caesarean section, obstetrics and gynaecology, trial of labour after caesarean section, vaginal birth after caesarean section

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Development and Validation of an Interleukin-6 Nomogram to Predict Primary Non-response to Infliximab in Crohn’s Disease Patients: From Bedside to Bioinformatics.

10.22541/au.160681175.57331828/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yueying Chen ◽

Hanyang Li ◽

Qi Feng ◽

Jun Shen

Keyword(s):

Crohn’S Disease ◽

Crohn's Disease ◽

Interleukin 6 ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Primary Response ◽

Early Markers ◽

Improper Use ◽

Development And Validation

Background: The primary nonresponse (PNR) rate of Infliximab (IFX) varies from 20% to 46% for the treatment of Crohn’s disease (CD). Detected PNR reduces the improper use of specific treatments. To date, there is hardly any knowledge regarding early markers of PNR. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) as an early predictor of PNR of IFX for the treatment of CD. Methods: We enrolled 322 bio-naïve patients diagnosed with CD from January 2016 to May 2020. Primary response was determined at week 14. Multivariable logistic regression was used to construct prediction models. The discrimination, calibration and clinical validity of the models in the validation cohort were assessed by area under the curve (AUC), calibration and decision curves analyses. GEO data were analyzed to identify potential mechanisms of IL-6 in IFX therapy for CD. Results: PNR occurred in 31.06% (100 of 322) patients who were assessable at week 14. IL-6 levels significantly decreased after IFX therapy (P < 0.001). The validation model containing IL-6 presented enhanced discrimination with an AUC of 0.908 and high calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the model added extra predictive value. GEO data confirmed the IL-6 levels were increased in the PNR group and IL-6-related differently expressed genes (DEGs) were enriched in the inflammatory response. Conclusion: We concluded that IL-6 may be used as a predictive factor to assess the risk of PNR to IFX therapy.

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Development and Validation of an Interleukin-6 Nomogram to Predict Primary Non-response to Infliximab in Crohn’s Disease Patients

Frontiers in Pharmacology ◽

10.3389/fphar.2021.654985 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Yueying Chen ◽

Hanyang Li ◽

Qi Feng ◽

Jun Shen

Keyword(s):

Crohn’S Disease ◽

Crohn's Disease ◽

Interleukin 6 ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Primary Response ◽

Early Markers ◽

Improper Use ◽

Development And Validation

Background: The primary non-response (PNR) rate of infliximab (IFX) varies from 20 to 46% for the treatment of Crohn’s disease (CD). Detected PNR reduces the improper use of specific treatments. To date, there is hardly any knowledge regarding early markers of PNR. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) as an early predictor of PNR of IFX for the treatment of CD.Methods: We enrolled 322 bio-naïve patients diagnosed with CD from January 2016 to May 2020. Primary response was determined at week 14. Multivariable logistic regression was used to construct prediction models. Area under the curve (AUC), calibration and decision curve analyses (DCA) were assessed in the validation cohort. GEO data were analyzed to identify potential mechanisms of IL-6 in IFX therapy for CD.Results: PNR occurred in 31.06% (100 of 322) patients who were assessable at week 14. IL-6 levels significantly decreased after IFX therapy (p < 0.001). The validation model containing IL-6 presented enhanced discrimination with an AUC of 0.908 and high calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the model added extra predictive value. GEO data confirmed the IL-6 levels were increased in the PNR group and IL-6-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were enriched in the inflammatory response.Conclusions: We concluded that IL-6 may be used as a predictive factor to assess the risk of PNR to IFX therapy.

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Default prediction models: The role of forward-looking measures of returns and volatility

Journal of Empirical Finance ◽

10.1016/j.jempfin.2018.01.001 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 46 ◽

pp. 146-162 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Hong Miao ◽

Sanjay Ramchander ◽

Patricia Ryan ◽

Tianyang Wang

Keyword(s):

Prediction Models ◽

Default Prediction ◽

Forward Looking

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The Value-Added Role of Industry Specialist Advisors in M&As

CFA Digest ◽

10.2469/dig.v48.n3.5 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 48 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Nicholas Tan

Keyword(s):

Value Added ◽

Industry Specialist

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Enterprise Performance Analysis of the Selected Service Sector by Applying Modern Methods with an Emphasis on the Creation and Application of the Modified Creditworthy Model (MCWM)

Journal of Tourism and Services ◽

10.29036/jots.v9i17.74 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (17) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Erika Onuferová ◽

Veronika Čabinová

Keyword(s):

Service Sector ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Economic Value ◽

Value Added ◽

Financial Indicators ◽

Tourism Sector ◽

Future Success ◽

Financial Growth ◽

Net Assets ◽

Third Dimension

The aim of presented paper was to create and subsequently apply the Modified 3D Creditworthy Model (MCWM) of performance reflecting sectoral characteristics and financial specificities of the selected sample of Slovak tour operators over the years 2013 – 2017. The intention of this research study was to implement the key financial indicators and appropriate prediction models into both dimensions of the traditional 2D Creditworthy Model of performance and to supplement its third dimension applying the selected modern assessment methods – the Economic Value Added and the Return On Net Assets as we consider them to be one of the most important indicators of future success and company's financial growth. This modification will help to better identify the current financial position of tour operators and more accurately identify causes that hinder the development of financial performance of the selected sample of enterprises. However, after adjusting the upper and lower quartile averages of a particular industry, this methodology is applicable in the wider context of enterprises, not only those operating in the tourism sector.

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The Service Sector in the Economy in Poland and European Union Countries

Olsztyn Economic Journal ◽

10.31648/oej.3146 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 191-207

Author(s):

Walentyna Kwiatkowska

Keyword(s):

Service Sector ◽

Value Added ◽

Total Employment ◽

Eu Countries ◽

Gross Value Added ◽

European Union Countries ◽

Service Sectors ◽

Sector Theory ◽

The Eu

The role of the service sector in the economy is increasing in the process of socio-economic development. This tendency has been confirmed and explained by the three-sector theory formulated by A.G.B. Fisher, C. Clark, and J. Fourastie. The main goal of the paper is to show development tendencies in service sectors in Poland and the EU countries and assess them in view of the three-sector theory. The share of the service sector in the total employment and in the total gross value added in the years 2005-2013/2014 will be analysed together with two sub-sectors including market and non-market services. The research shows that the share of the service sector in total employment and total gross value added has been recently increasing in Poland as well as in other EU countries, but there is a gap in this process between Poland and the most developed EU countries. Moreover, in Poland, the role of market services has been recently increasing much faster than the role of non-market services.

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