scholarly journals Petroleum Pump Price Swing and Consumer Price Index Nexus in Nigeria: New Evidence from NARDL

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-79
Author(s):  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
Gabriel Attah Adejor ◽  
Sesan Oluseyi Adeniji
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Price Adjustment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Domestic Inflation

Abstract The study analyses the role of the petroleum pump price on the consumer price index in Nigeria, using the Nonlinear Autoregressive distributive lag method was used to estimate the time-series data, spanning from 1980 to 2020. The study reveals a long-run equilibrium was found between the consumer price index and petroleum pump price measures. The empirical results obtained revealed an asymmetric relationship between the petroleum pump price and the consumer price index in Nigeria. The study recommended that the policymakers should transparently commit resources into rehabilitation and maintenance of domestic refineries to enhance their functionality and as well reduce importation cost to curtail frequent petroleum pump price adjustment that spiral domestic inflation.

scholarly journals The Impact of Key Macroeconomic Determinants on Pakistan’s Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol V (II) ◽  
pp. 260-272
Author(s):  
Faaeza Atiq ◽  
Mudassir Uddin ◽  
Irfan Hussain Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper intended to analyze key Macroeconomic factor’s effect on Pakistan’s economic development. The annual time-series data has been taken from 1980 to 2018 on External Debts, Foreign Direct investment. Consumer Price Index and Term of Trade. Variables stationarity is analyzed by ADF and Ng-Perron tests; afterwards, JJ test and Granger Causality test are used for Long-run (LR) & Short-run(SR) associations between variables, respectively. Also, Residuals Diagnostic Test used for checking residuals assumptions and CUSUM and CUSUMSQ are used for checking parameter constancy. The result shows significantly negative and positive long-run effects of External Debts and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) respectively on the economic growth of Pakistan. Albeit, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Term of Trade (TOT) and, FDI significantly Granger cause economic growth in the short-run. Research suggests that economic policies devised in such a way that deteriorates External Debts and attract foreign investments and strengthen the economic growth of Pakistan in the long-term.

scholarly journals Non-bank financial institutions and economic growth: Evidence from Africa’s three largest economies

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald Rateiwa ◽  
Meshach J. Aziakpono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Background: In order for the post-2015 world development agenda – termed the sustainable development goals (SDGs) – to succeed, there is a pronounced need to ensure that available resources are used more effectively and additional financing is accessed from the private sector. Given that traditional bank lending has slowed down, the development of non-bank financing has become imperative. To this end, this article intends to empirically test the role of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in stimulating economic growth.Aim: The aim of this article is to empirically test the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the development of NBFIs, and the causality thereof.Setting: The empirical assessment uses time-series data from Africa’s three largest economies, namely, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, over the period 1971–2013.Methods: This article uses the Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model within a country-specific setting.Results: The results showed that the long-run relationship between NBFI development and economic growth is relatively stronger in Egypt and South Africa, than in Nigeria. Evidence in respect of Nigeria shows that such a relationship is weak. The nature of the relationship between NBFI development and economic growth in Egypt is positive and significant, and predominantly bidirectional. This suggests that a virtuous relationship between NBFIs and economic growth exists in Egypt. In South Africa, the relationship is positive and significant and predominantly runs from NBFI development to economic growth, implying a supply-leading phenomenon. In Nigeria, the results are weak and mixed.Conclusion: The study concludes that in countries with more developed financial systems, the role of NBFIs and their importance to the economic growth process are more pronounced. Thus, there is need for developing policies targeted at developing the NBFI sector, given their potential to contribute to economic growth.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass Through in a Small Open Economy: A case study of West African Monetary Zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Rahman olanrewaju Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The  study investigated the magnitude of exchange rate pass through to import prices and domestic prices    (consumer price index) in WAMZ economy using quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010 with the aids of Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling technique supported with Johansen co-integration approach cross country analysis comprising of Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra-Leone. The study discovered that transmission of exchange rate to import prices is more when compared with consumer price in the zone while the contributions of exchange rate to import price are not less 13 percent at average in entire zone. Consumer price index was explained by exchange rate pass through with an average of 26 percent in the zone where the pass through to consumer price is less than two percent in Ghanaian economy. The Taylor (2000) hypothesis was observed in the study where Ghana and Nigeria are the outlier economies while Nigeria established a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and exchange rate pass through to import prices.

scholarly journals Analysis of Effect Macro Variable on International Trade of Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
Evania Rahma Octavia ◽  
Dwi Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Macro Variables

This study aims to determine the effect of macro variables which include Indonesia's real gross domestic income, money supply, consumer price index and interest rates on international trade mediated by the exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar. This type of research is descriptive research with quantitative approach. Determination of the sample based on quarterly time series data 2010-2014. This study uses path analysis. The results showed domestic gross product, the money supply, and interest rates together  have a significant effect on the exchange rate but the consumer price index do not have significant effect on the exchange rate. The results also show that the exchange rate has no significant effect on imports and exports. 

scholarly journals Trade Openness And Inflation: Empirical Explanation Of The Nexus In Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-45
Author(s):  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
David Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

Purpose of the study: The study aims is to examine the effect of trade openness on inflation rate in Nigeria. Methodology: Time series data were collected from secondary sources.  EViews10 (statistical software for data analysis) ware employed to analyze the data collected. Findings: The results revealed a cointegrating and one-way Granger causality between inflation rate, and trade openness. In addition, both the short-run and the long-run results demonstrate a significant and negative relationship between inflation rate and trade openness in Nigeria. Application: The study is paramount to the government and policymakers in dealing and taking a decision regarding consumer price index and trade openness in Nigeria. We conclude that the government should work towards full diversification and diversion of the economy from oil export, control, and management of the degree of trade liberalization and the extent to which goods enter the country, and the control of money supplied. Novelty/Originality: The study accorded to debate on the inflation rate, and trade openness in Nigeria looking, at both short-run and long-run effects, before few accessible studies focused on impact, and trade openness was not measured as the value of net export divided by gross domestic product. Finally, the paper contributed to the scanty of the literature.

scholarly journals UNEMPLOYMENT AND MONETARY POLICY DYNAMICS IN PAKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-09
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Muhammad Zeeshan Ali ◽  
Farhana Nosheen ◽  
Afifa Sadar Ud Din
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Development Rate ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Dynamics ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of monetary policy on unemployment in Pakistan. The time-series data for 1977 to 2019 was taken and the ARDL technique is used for estimation. Unemployment was used as a dependent variable along with other control variables while the money supply was the core independent variable of the research. It was concluded that money related arrangement not just contributes to observing past patterns and additionally future projections of superficial factors of real factors also. The outcomes show that there is a critical and negative connection between spending Deficit and unemployment. The gross domestic product development rate is decidedly identified with unemployment. Populace development rate is adversely identified with unemployment. The consumer price index is contrarily identified with unemployment.

Impact of macroeconomic indicators on housing prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1055-1071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Mohan ◽  
Alan Hutson ◽  
Ian MacDonald ◽  
Chung Chun Lin
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
New York State ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Purpose This paper uses statistical analyses to quantify the effects of five major macroeconomic indicators, namely crude oil price, 30-year mortgage interest rate (IR), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and unemployment rate (UR), on housing prices over time. Design/methodology/approach Housing price is measured as housing price index (HPI) and is treated as a variable affecting itself. Actual housing sale prices in the Town of Amherst, New York State, USA, 1999-2008, and time-series data of the macroeconomic indicators, 2000-2017, were used in a vector autoregression statistical model to examine the data that show the greatest statistical significance and exert maximum quantitative effects of macroeconomic indicators on housing prices. Findings The analyses concluded that the 30-year IR and HPI have statistically significant effects on housing prices. IR has the highest effect, contributing 5.0 per cent of variance in the first month to 8.5 per cent in the twelfth. The UR has the next greatest influence followed by DJIA and CPI. The disturbance from HPI itself causes the greatest variability in future prices: up to 92.7 per cent in variance 1 month ahead and approximately 74.5 per cent 12 months ahead. This result indicates that current changes in house prices heavily influence people’s expectation of future prices. The total effect of the error variance of the macroeconomic indicators ranged from 7.3 per cent in the first month to 25.5 per cent in the twelfth. Originality/value The conclusions in this paper, along with related tables and figures, will be useful to the housing and real estate communities in planning their business for the next years.

Analyzing the Role of Money Balances as a factor of Output in Context of Globalization: A Case Study of Bahrain

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-187
Author(s):  
Wahib Ali Musleh Elayah ◽  
Wen Hu ◽  
Othman Mohammed ◽  
Ihtisham ul Haq ◽  
Muhammad Awais
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Money ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The nexus between money and output is regaining attention from researchers after recent global financial crisis. Likewise, globalization-output nexus also grabs the attention of researchers. Henceforth, the study is design to analyze the effect of real money balances and globalization on output by incorporating real money balances and globalization in Cobb-Douglas production function. Time series data has been analyzed and all variables of the study are tested for order of integration through unit root test. So, it is found that that all variables are integrated of first order so one cannot apply ordinary least squares. This is the reason that Johansen cointegration technique and the cointegration regression, fully modified least squares, are applied for long run relationship and long run estimates respectively. The cointegration technique confirmed long run relationship among variables thus; it is concluded that real money balances and globalization are important determinants of output in the Kingdom of Bahrain. Furthermore, results of the study show that real money balances and globalization are found to have positive and significant effect on output along with labor and capital. Thus, this study concludes that real money balances and globalization are important factors of output in the Kingdom of Bahrain and monetary authorities should consider real money balances and globalization in policy making for sustainable economic growth.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and the Real Economy: A Structural VAR Approach for Kazakhstan

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zinauova Bekbolatkyzy Nurgul ◽  
Tautanova Zere ◽  
Hayot Berk Saydaliev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate

This paper shows monetary policy indicator which better explains Kazakhstani transmission mechanism. The study also discusses how foreign monetary policy or oil prices affect domestic macroeconomic variables. We use a seven variable by utilizing quarterly time series data from Kazakhstan covering the period from January 2005 to December 2017. They are: interest rate, exchange rate, output, reserve money, consumer price index, then, World oil price index and Federal Funds rate.

scholarly journals Role of Inflow of Resources on Economic Growth of Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 66-78
Author(s):  
Tilak Singh Mahara ◽  
Naw Raj Bhatt
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to examine the role of the inflow of resources on the economic growth of Nepal incorporating annual time-series data sets of 45 years from 1975 to 2019. The autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration is used to identify the long-run as well as the short-run relationship between the variables. The empirical finding indicates that there is a positive relationship between the inflow of resources and economic growth. Quantitatively, gross national saving, domestic loans, foreign loans, and export earnings have a positive impact on the economic growth in both the long-run as well as short-run for the Nepalese economy. Policies encouraging private sector participation, enlarging efficiency, and effectiveness of public sector projects, and expanding export base must be implemented.

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