scholarly journals Analysis of Effect Macro Variable on International Trade of Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
Evania Rahma Octavia ◽  
Dwi Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Macro Variables

This study aims to determine the effect of macro variables which include Indonesia's real gross domestic income, money supply, consumer price index and interest rates on international trade mediated by the exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar. This type of research is descriptive research with quantitative approach. Determination of the sample based on quarterly time series data 2010-2014. This study uses path analysis. The results showed domestic gross product, the money supply, and interest rates together  have a significant effect on the exchange rate but the consumer price index do not have significant effect on the exchange rate. The results also show that the exchange rate has no significant effect on imports and exports. 

scholarly journals Penerapan Vector Error Correction Model pada Variabel Makro Ekonomi di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 287
Author(s):  
Moh. Faizin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Good Condition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Macro Variables

In this time, the countries can be said to be in a good condition of the national economy if there are some indicators in positive economic macro, it is including the decline of inflation, the amount of money circulating is also decline, and the exchange rate strengthening against foreign currencies and reduced interest rates. The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality and cointegration relationships of economic macro variables, by using time series data for 2010-2019 and using the VECM model. The results of the study found that there is no causality relationship between inflation and the BI rate. Likewise, the variable money supply does not affect the BI rate. The exchange rate also does not affect each other on the BI rate variable. Causality test results also indicate that the money supply does not have a causality relationship to inflation, while the exchange rate variables influence each other on inflation. To exchange rates, it does not give affect in the variable amount of money in circulation each other. By explanation of the estimation results of the VECM model, it shows the long-term and short-term relationships of each variable generally.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of The Rupiah Exchange Rate in 2017-2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arief Aldila Susanto ◽  
Rr. Retno Retno Sugiharti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<p align="justify">The exchange rate is one of the most important indicators in the economy. Moreover, with the increasing intensity of trade between countries, commonly referred to as international trade, this economic indicator becomes important for every country, including Indonesia. The change in the Indonesian exchange rate system to a free-floating system has made the exchange rate fluctuations more dynamic. The fluctuations are influenced by various factors, both internal and external. This study aims to determine the effect of the money supply (M<sub>2</sub>), foreign exchange reserves, SBI interest rates and world crude oil prices on the rupiah/dollar exchange rate in 2017-2020 both in the short run and in the long run. The data used is monthly time series data from 2017-2020. The analytical method used in this study is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results in this study indicate that in the short run and long run the money supply and foreign exchange reserves variables have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate in 2017-2020.</p>

scholarly journals PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR, KURS US DOLLAR DAN INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SEKTOR PERDAGANGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Nurlia Rahmatika
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Stock Price Index

<em>This study aims to determine the analysis of the influence of the Money Supply (M2), the USD Exchange Rate and the Consumer Price Index.</em> <em>The research methodology used is a quantitative method with time series data and data sources derived from secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sampling technique uses purposive sampling method with monthly data and research period from January 2009 to December 2016. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regressions.</em> <em>The results of this study indicate that partially the independent variable Amount of Money has a positive and significant effect on the Trading Sector Stock Price Index. While the independent variable USD Exchange Rate and Consumer Price Index has a negative and significant effect on the Trading Sector Stock Price Index. Meanwhile, simultaneously the independent variable consisting of Money Supply, the USD Exchange Rate and the Consumer Price Index together have a significant relationship to the dependent variable, namely the Trade Sector Stock Price Index. </em>

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass Through in a Small Open Economy: A case study of West African Monetary Zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Rahman olanrewaju Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The  study investigated the magnitude of exchange rate pass through to import prices and domestic prices    (consumer price index) in WAMZ economy using quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010 with the aids of Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling technique supported with Johansen co-integration approach cross country analysis comprising of Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra-Leone. The study discovered that transmission of exchange rate to import prices is more when compared with consumer price in the zone while the contributions of exchange rate to import price are not less 13 percent at average in entire zone. Consumer price index was explained by exchange rate pass through with an average of 26 percent in the zone where the pass through to consumer price is less than two percent in Ghanaian economy. The Taylor (2000) hypothesis was observed in the study where Ghana and Nigeria are the outlier economies while Nigeria established a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and exchange rate pass through to import prices.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH KURS, BI RATE DAN INFLASI TERHADAP IHSG DI BEI PERIODE 2014-2017

KEUNIS ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Esty Nidianti ◽  
Edi Wijayanto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Simultaneous Test ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Analyze Data

<p><em>The aim of this study was to determine the effect of macro economic conditions which including the exchange rate, BI rate and inflation of the composite stock price index. The study had used quantitative approach. Determination of the sample was based on time series data periode January 2014 – December 2017 by using saturation sampling method, which resulted 48 as number of samples. This study also had chosen multiple linier regression as attempts to analyze data. The simultaneous test (F test) resulted that the exchange rate, BI rate, and inflation had given significant effect on the stock price index. Meanwhile, the partial test (t test) had indicated that the exchange rate variable and BI rate significantly influenced the stock price index. In contrast, rate of inflation had not showed significant effect on the stock price index. </em><strong><em></em></strong></p>

scholarly journals Capital Flows and Money Supply: The Degree of Sterilization in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Sadia Sajjad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data

The present study proposes to analyze the impact of the capital flows on the economic growth. The change in the capital flows affects the money supply in the economy which in return influences the economic growth. The augmented dickey fuller test (ADF), descriptive Analysis, correlation method, and the auto regressive distribution lag are employed in this work. The ADF test is delved to examine the Stationarity of the variables and the correlation between them. The descriptive analysis is used to check the normality of the variable whether the variables is normally distributed or not. The survey bases on time series data ranging from the year 1974 to 2014. The variables as the gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate (ER), inflation (INF), consumer price index (CPI), money supply (M2), total reserves (TR) and the foreign direct investment (FDI), price indices (PI). The research findings are Foreign direct investment, Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Consumer Price Index has the positive impact on the GDP while the Private Investment, Total reserves, and Money supply have the negative impact on the GDP. The value of the R square is 0.99874 which is very good. It means that the 99 percent variations exist in dependent variable due to independent variables. 

scholarly journals EFFECT OF INTEREST RATE, INFLATION AND NATIONAL INCOME TO RUPIAH THE AMERICAN DOLLARS IN 2006-2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-248
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irsyad Mustaqim ◽  
Saparuddin Mukhtar ◽  
Tuty Sariwulan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Income ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This research aims to analyze the effect of interest rates, inflation and national income against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar. As for the data used in this research is secondary data, with this type of time series data in the period 2006-2016 obtained from Bank Indonesia and the World Bank. The method of this research method using exposé facto. Data analysis techniques used in this research is the analysis of multiple regression. By using multiple regression analysis model, the output shows that interest rates (X 1) positive and significant effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Inflation rate (X 2) do not affect the exchange rate of the rupiah significantly to top u.s. dollars (Y). National income (X 3) a positive effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Of test results by looking at their significance value F = 0.000 then it can be said to be 0.05 < simultaneously interest rates, inflation and national income effect significant at α = 5% against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar in the year 2006-2016. The value of the coefficient of determination (R2) acquired for 0.660 has a sense that the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar can be explained by the level of interest rates, inflation and national income amounted to 66% while the rest is explained by other factors that do not exist in the model for this research.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence Based on Bound Test Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 613-624
Author(s):  
Mahmood Ul Hassan ◽  
Hina Ali ◽  
Saeed Ur Rahman ◽  
Sabiha Parveen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bound Test

The objective of this research is to examine the monetary policy's impact on economic growth. Variables of study are Gross domestic product, Inflation, rate of interest, Exchange rate, Money supply, Investment, and Consumer Price Index and time series data is collected from. Gross domestic product is a dependent variable and all other variables are independent and have a great effect on the explanatory variable. In this study, the Augmented dicky fuller test is used to check out the stationarity of our selected variables and after that autoregressive distributed lag model co-integration technique is applied to estimate the parameters of the model. The result shows that inflation, interest rate, and consumer price index show a negative impact on gross domestic product. While other variables such as exchange rate, money supply, and investment show a positive impact on GDP. The study recommended that the desired level of output and employment can be attained by adopting sufficient strategies that reduce inflation in the economy.

scholarly journals Estimasi model neraca perdagangan Indonesia dalam periode 1998-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 123-136
Author(s):  
Liza Azizah ◽  
Syamsurijal Tan ◽  
Emilia Emilia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
Balance Dynamics ◽  
Descriptive Method

This study aims to analyze Indonesia's trade balance dynamics and the factors that influence fluctuations in Indonesia's trade balance in the period 1998-2017. The method used in this study is a quantitative descriptive method. The data used in this study is time-series data on Indonesia's trade balance, exchange rate, GDP, inflation, and interest rates from 1998-2017. The data is processed through multiple regression analysis and development model analysis. The results showed that the variables of the exchange rate, GDP, inflation, and interest rates simultaneously significantly affected Indonesia's trade balance. Partially, the exchange rate, GDP, and interest rates have a significant effect on Indonesia's trade balance. In contrast, inflation does not substantially impact Indonesia's trade balance during the study period. R-square is 0.6882 or 68.82%, which means that Indonesia's trade balance for 1998-2017 is influenced by exchange rates, GDP, inflation, and interest rates, while other factors outside the estimation model influence the remaining 31.18%. Keywords: Trade balance, Exchange rate, GDP, Inflation, Interest rates.

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