scholarly journals Monetary Policy and the Real Economy: A Structural VAR Approach for Kazakhstan

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zinauova Bekbolatkyzy Nurgul ◽  
Tautanova Zere ◽  
Hayot Berk Saydaliev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate

This paper shows monetary policy indicator which better explains Kazakhstani transmission mechanism. The study also discusses how foreign monetary policy or oil prices affect domestic macroeconomic variables. We use a seven variable by utilizing quarterly time series data from Kazakhstan covering the period from January 2005 to December 2017. They are: interest rate, exchange rate, output, reserve money, consumer price index, then, World oil price index and Federal Funds rate.

scholarly journals UNEMPLOYMENT AND MONETARY POLICY DYNAMICS IN PAKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-09
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Muhammad Zeeshan Ali ◽  
Farhana Nosheen ◽  
Afifa Sadar Ud Din
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Development Rate ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Dynamics ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of monetary policy on unemployment in Pakistan. The time-series data for 1977 to 2019 was taken and the ARDL technique is used for estimation. Unemployment was used as a dependent variable along with other control variables while the money supply was the core independent variable of the research. It was concluded that money related arrangement not just contributes to observing past patterns and additionally future projections of superficial factors of real factors also. The outcomes show that there is a critical and negative connection between spending Deficit and unemployment. The gross domestic product development rate is decidedly identified with unemployment. Populace development rate is adversely identified with unemployment. The consumer price index is contrarily identified with unemployment.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass Through in a Small Open Economy: A case study of West African Monetary Zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Rahman olanrewaju Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The  study investigated the magnitude of exchange rate pass through to import prices and domestic prices    (consumer price index) in WAMZ economy using quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010 with the aids of Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling technique supported with Johansen co-integration approach cross country analysis comprising of Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra-Leone. The study discovered that transmission of exchange rate to import prices is more when compared with consumer price in the zone while the contributions of exchange rate to import price are not less 13 percent at average in entire zone. Consumer price index was explained by exchange rate pass through with an average of 26 percent in the zone where the pass through to consumer price is less than two percent in Ghanaian economy. The Taylor (2000) hypothesis was observed in the study where Ghana and Nigeria are the outlier economies while Nigeria established a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and exchange rate pass through to import prices.

scholarly journals Analysis of Effect Macro Variable on International Trade of Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
Evania Rahma Octavia ◽  
Dwi Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Macro Variables

This study aims to determine the effect of macro variables which include Indonesia's real gross domestic income, money supply, consumer price index and interest rates on international trade mediated by the exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar. This type of research is descriptive research with quantitative approach. Determination of the sample based on quarterly time series data 2010-2014. This study uses path analysis. The results showed domestic gross product, the money supply, and interest rates together  have a significant effect on the exchange rate but the consumer price index do not have significant effect on the exchange rate. The results also show that the exchange rate has no significant effect on imports and exports. 

Impact of macroeconomic indicators on housing prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1055-1071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Mohan ◽  
Alan Hutson ◽  
Ian MacDonald ◽  
Chung Chun Lin
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
New York State ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Purpose This paper uses statistical analyses to quantify the effects of five major macroeconomic indicators, namely crude oil price, 30-year mortgage interest rate (IR), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and unemployment rate (UR), on housing prices over time. Design/methodology/approach Housing price is measured as housing price index (HPI) and is treated as a variable affecting itself. Actual housing sale prices in the Town of Amherst, New York State, USA, 1999-2008, and time-series data of the macroeconomic indicators, 2000-2017, were used in a vector autoregression statistical model to examine the data that show the greatest statistical significance and exert maximum quantitative effects of macroeconomic indicators on housing prices. Findings The analyses concluded that the 30-year IR and HPI have statistically significant effects on housing prices. IR has the highest effect, contributing 5.0 per cent of variance in the first month to 8.5 per cent in the twelfth. The UR has the next greatest influence followed by DJIA and CPI. The disturbance from HPI itself causes the greatest variability in future prices: up to 92.7 per cent in variance 1 month ahead and approximately 74.5 per cent 12 months ahead. This result indicates that current changes in house prices heavily influence people’s expectation of future prices. The total effect of the error variance of the macroeconomic indicators ranged from 7.3 per cent in the first month to 25.5 per cent in the twelfth. Originality/value The conclusions in this paper, along with related tables and figures, will be useful to the housing and real estate communities in planning their business for the next years.

scholarly journals THE ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN CONVENTIONAL AND SHARIA AGAINST INFLATION IN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julika Rahma Siagian
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Short Term

This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Indonesia in controlling inflation, both in terms of sharia and conventional terms. The data used in this empirical study is time series data during 2011:1-2017:4 originating from (Bank Indonesia), Financial Services Authority (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (Kemenkue). The analysis tool used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study analyzes the relationship between independent and dependent variables both in the short and long term. The results of this study throuht the asset prices indicate that from conventional monetary variable SBI (certifikat of bank indonesia) variables that have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Where as in the long term the variable money supply has a positive effect and variable interest rates on Bank Indonesia, bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation. In Islamic monetary variables, SBIS have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Islamic bond variables (Sukuk) have a negative and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. While in the long-term the variable money supply, Islamic interest rates, and Islamic bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation.

scholarly journals THE ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN CONVENTIONAL AND SHARIA AGAINST INFLATION IN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Julika Rahma Siagian
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Short Term

This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Indonesia in controlling inflation, both in terms of sharia and conventional terms. The data used in this empirical study is time series data during 2011:1-2017:4 originating from (Bank Indonesia), Financial Services Authority (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (Kemenkue). The analysis tool used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study analyzes the relationship between independent and dependent variables both in the short and long term. The results of this study throuht the asset prices indicate that from conventional monetary variable SBI (certifikat of bank indonesia) variables that have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Where as in the long term the variable money supply has a positive effect and variable interest rates on Bank Indonesia, bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation. In Islamic monetary variables, SBIS have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Islamic bond variables (Sukuk) have a negative and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. While in the long-term the variable money supply, Islamic interest rates, and Islamic bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation.

scholarly journals Implementation of α-Sutte Indicator to Forecasting Consumer Price Index in Turkey

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansari Saleh Ahmar ◽  
Abdul Rahman ◽  
Usman Mulbar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Test Data ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Reference Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Forecast Data

α-Sutte Indicator (α-Sutte) was originally from developed of Sutte Indicator. Sutte Indicator can use to predict the movement of stocks. As the development of science, then Sutte Indicator developed to predict not only the movement of stocks but also can forecast data on financial, insurance, and time series data. This method called α-Sutte Indicator (α-Sutte). α-Sutte was developed using the principle of the forecasting method of using the previous data. The data used in this research is Consumer Price Index in Turkey data from January 2003 - June 2017. This data is divided into 2 parts, namely training data and test data. Training data starts from January 2003 - October 2016 and test data from November 2016 - June 2017. To see the accuracy of α-Sutte, it will be done benchmarking the results of forecasting with other forecasting method is Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R (AutoARIMA) developed by Hyndman-Khandakar (2008). Comparison of this accuracy is to compare the value of MSE forecasting result on test data by using training data as reference data. Results obtained from this study that the MSE value of α-Sutte is smaller (5.697723) than MSE from AutoARIMA (292.5125). This indicates that α-Sutte is more suitable for predicting Consumer Price Index in Turkey data.

scholarly journals Identification of monetary policy shocks: a graphical causal approach

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio Moneta
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Graphical Models ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Partial Correlations ◽  
Causal Approach ◽  
Reserve Market

This paper develops a structural VAR methodology based on graphical models to identify the monetary policy shocks and to measure their macroeconomic effects. The advantage of this procedure is to work with testable overidentifying models, whose restrictions are derived by the partial correlations among residuals plus some institutional knowledge. This permits to test some restrictions on the reserve market used in several approaches existing in the literature. The main findings are that neither VAR innovations to federal funds rate nor innovations to nonborrowed reserves are good indicators of monetary policy shocks.

scholarly journals Transmission mechanism of monetary policy and response to outside shocks in 2020 by National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
pp. 179-185
Author(s):  
G. G. Ilyassova ◽  
Z. N. Abiyeva ◽  
G. A. Perneyeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Republic

The article examines the features and current state of monetary policy and transmission mechanism of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. The transmission mechanism is not a tool to achieve the goals set for the development of the modern economy. This mechanism is a set of interactions in economic processes through which the results of decisions or transactions in the framework of monetary policy affect the economy. In this regard, the article describes the level of inflation and its impact on the level of prices for goods and services. The situation with the use of the consumer price index to calculate inflation, calculated on the basis of the analysis of prices in the portfolio of consumer goods and services of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, is analyzed in detail. Macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, reflecting the viable direction of the monetary policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, affect the level of the consumer price index. To make decisions, the NBRK conducts research to determine inflation forecasts. Inflationary expectations make it possible to assess the possible impact on the economy. In this context, the article states that the NBRK's inflation target will be achieved through the following channels (base rate, exchange rate and money supply). The conclusion is based on the fact that, given the global pandemic around the world, one can see the NBRK's expansionary monetary policy and decisions to lower the base rate, increase the money supply and stabilize the currency.

scholarly journals PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR, KURS US DOLLAR DAN INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SEKTOR PERDAGANGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Nurlia Rahmatika
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Stock Price Index

<em>This study aims to determine the analysis of the influence of the Money Supply (M2), the USD Exchange Rate and the Consumer Price Index.</em> <em>The research methodology used is a quantitative method with time series data and data sources derived from secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sampling technique uses purposive sampling method with monthly data and research period from January 2009 to December 2016. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regressions.</em> <em>The results of this study indicate that partially the independent variable Amount of Money has a positive and significant effect on the Trading Sector Stock Price Index. While the independent variable USD Exchange Rate and Consumer Price Index has a negative and significant effect on the Trading Sector Stock Price Index. Meanwhile, simultaneously the independent variable consisting of Money Supply, the USD Exchange Rate and the Consumer Price Index together have a significant relationship to the dependent variable, namely the Trade Sector Stock Price Index. </em>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document