scholarly journals Determinants of Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: The Case of Bulgaria

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Vladimirov ◽  
Maria Neycheva
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Main Determinant ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Linear Effects ◽  
Policy Impacts ◽  
The Government

Determinants of Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: The Case of BulgariaThe paper illuminates the non-linear effects of the government budget on short-run economic activity. The study shows that in the Bulgarian economy under a Currency Board Arrangement the tax policy impacts the real growth in the standard Keynesian manner. On the other hand, the expenditure policy exhibits non-Keynesian behavior on the short-run output: cuts in government spending accelerate the real GDP growth. The main determinant of this outcome is the size of the discretionary budgetary changes. The results imply that the balanced budget rule improves the sustainability of public finances without assuring a growth-enhancing effect.

scholarly journals What Determines Balance of Payments: A Case of Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Syeda Azra Batool ◽  
Tahir Memood ◽  
Atif Khan Jadoon
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Positive Direction ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Bound Test

Distortion in balance of payments is one of the dominant causes for the sluggish economic condition of Pakistan. The present article has focused to scrutinize the relationship of the balance of payments to its certain determinants that are actually blamable or not for its distortion. The robust ARDL structure has been utilized to develop the bound testing approach to co-integration and error correction models on data set for 1972-2013.The bound test declares that there exists stable long run relationship of balance of payments to its determinants. The upshots indicate that real exchange rate inversely influences the balance of payments not only in the long run but also in the short run. Interest rate inversely affects the balance of payment in the long run but positively affects in the short run .Fiscal balance affects the BOP negatively in the long and short run simultaneously. As regards the real GDP, it moves the BOP in the positive direction in both long and short run. The money supply cast a positive influence on the BOP in the short run but negative effect in the long run. So the need of the hour is that the real GDP of Pakistan should be increased by the deliberate policy of the government. Because it is the GDP that can increase our savings consumption and government expenditures and exports and can improve balance of balance of payment.

scholarly journals Dynamic Analysis of Structural Shifts of Fiscal Revenue in Nigeria, 1999-2016

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 96
Author(s):  
Mustapha A. Akinkunmi
Keyword(s):  
Data Availability ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Excise Duty ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

The oil sector that eased the financial constraint of Nigerian government in the 1970s is presently acting as the source of financial constraints to the country due to a continuous decline in government revenue, arising from the recent drastic fall in world crude oil prices. This calls for the government to diversify its revenue base through improving taxation. This study examined the influence of economic performance on the government revenue as well as the various sources of tax revenues in Nigeria. Monthly data spanning 1999 to 2016 were utilized to estimate vector error correction models (VECM) for five sources of government tax revenues based on data availability. Empirical results revealed that there is a significant relationship between real GDP and real company income tax revenues, and between real GDP and real excise duty revenues in the long run. However, in the short run, the one-year lag of tax revenue varieties poses a significant influence on the various sources of tax revenues.

scholarly journals Cotton Imports and GDP of Indonesia- Cointegration Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
P. Soumya ◽  
R. A. Yeledhalli
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the impact of cotton imports on the real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of Indonesia for a period from 1992 to 2018 using ARDL approach and Granger causality analysis. Results of the study indicated that cotton imports have negative effect on economic growth. For every 1% increase in cotton imports the real GDP decreased by 0.107% in the long run. Any disequilibrium in the model is adjusted with a high speed of adjustment of 107.7% in less than a year. Shocks and the trend are adjusted in less than one year. There is no causality between imports of cotton and the real GDP. The study suggested effort should be taken by the government to increase yield of cotton by the use of technology and also a need to initiate farmers to take up cotton farming. 

scholarly journals How Fiscal Policy in Bulgaria may Affect the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy?

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 525-535
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Low Carbon Economy ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Environment ◽  
Carbon Economy

The adaptation of traditional macroeconomic policy goals to new ecological realities assigns a specific role to macroeconomic policy. We model the short-run transmission mechanism of fiscal policy under Currency Board Arrangements in Bulgaria in order to assess the fiscal policy potential to boost sustainable economic development and compensate for the economic growth losses due to decarbonisation of the economy. We find that fiscal policy instruments in Bulgaria have no statistically significant effect on GDP components considered separately but they do have a complex effect on macroeconomic environment in the country. This indicates that specific fiscal policy effects to support the transition to a low-carbon economy in Bulgaria cannot be expected and the structural policies should be followed.

scholarly journals Non-linear impact of exchange rate changes on U.S. industrial production

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arash Habibi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Materials ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Linear Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Misspecification Error ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This paper contributes to the literature on the nexus between production and exchange rate in the United States (U.S.) by considering non-linear adjustments of exchange rate effects on industrial production in several sectors of the U.S. economy. We employ a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) model which is built upon the Solow model. We show that there exists a non-linear relationship between these two variables in some of the MMIGs. We document short-run non-linear effects of exchange rate on production of non-energy materials, durable manufacturing, consumer goods and business equipment. The short-run effects last into the long-run for all the sectors. While exchange rate changes have short-run linear effects on production of electricity in the U.S., there are no effects of exchange rate movements on the production of mining, and energy materials. Moreover, the paper finds misspecification error of the model for the case of durable manufacturing. The existence of non-linearities considering import content of exports, support our hypothesis and conclusions. Further, the factors that influence demand provide justifications for our results.

scholarly journals Is Real Depreciation or More Government Deficit Expansionary? The Case of Slovenia

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Labor Cost ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
The Real ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of the real exchange rate, the government deficit and other relevant variables on aggregate output in Slovenia. Few of the previous studies have applied the AD/AS model to examine the impacts of major macroeconomic variables on aggregate output. This paper makes contributions to the literature by applying a rigorous model to examine how real GDP is affected by the real exchange rate, fiscal policy and other related variables. The exponential GARCH model is applied in empirical work. The paper finds that real depreciation of the Euro may affect Slovenia’s aggregate output positively or negatively and that more central government deficit as a percent of GDP does not affect aggregate output. In addition, Slovenia’s aggregate output is positively associated with the real stock price, the real oil price and real total labor cost or wage and is negatively influenced by the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. Recent real depreciation of the Euro would help Slovenia’s aggregate output whereas expansionary fiscal policy would not be effective in stimulating the economy.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between External Debt, Economic Growth, Unemployment and National Expenditure in Viet Nam

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p129
Author(s):  
Anh Tru Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Viet Nam ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

The article examines the relationship between external debt, economic growth, unemployment and national expenditure in Viet Nam between 1987 and 2016. We found that the influence of a variable on other variables varies in the short run. We found that there are directional relationships between GDP and external debt and GDP and national expenditure. We also found that there are directional relationships between unemployment and external debt, GDP, and national expenditure. Results addressed directional relationships between national expenditure and external debt and GDP. There are two co-integrations among variables. In order to sustain macroeconomic stability in Viet Nam, fiscal policy should be re-examined to meet large development needs and monetary policy should be tightened to reduce credit growth. Specifically, external debt should be effectively managed by the government because an increase in external debt leads to a decrease in GDP and a growth of unemployment. Moreover, GDP should be facilitated to reduce unemployment in the economy. Lastly, unemployment needs to be controlled because it generates a boom of national expenditure and vice versa.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in South Africa: VECM Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 231
Author(s):  
Tshembhani Mackson HLONGWANE ◽  
Itumeleng Pleasure MONGALE ◽  
Lavisa TALA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Development ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Fiscal policy ensures macroeconomic stability as a precondition for growth at the macro level. This study investigates the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth of South Africa from 1960 to 2014 through a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression approach. It seeks to contribute to the existing literature as well as in designing effective fiscal policy programmes which can propel economic performance. Theresults of the long run estimates revealed that government tax revenue has a positive and significant long run influence on economic growth, whereas the government gross fixed capital formation and budget deficit have a negative impact on real GDP. For that reason, the study recommends that some expansionary fiscal policy measures should be strengthened since they play a very important role in the economy so as to meet the government target of the National Development Plan Vision for 2030.

Public investment and inclusive growth in Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (12) ◽  
pp. 1669-1691
Author(s):  
Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun ◽  
Philip Akanni Olomola ◽  
Adebayo Adedokun ◽  
Olumide Steven Ayodele
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Inclusive Growth ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Automatic Stabilization ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Productive Employment

PurposeThe increasing debate on the viability of broad-based productive employment in stimulating the participatory tendencies of growth makes it instructive to inquire how the African “Big Five” have fared in their quests to ensure growth inclusiveness through public investment-led fiscal policy.Design/methodology/approachTime varying structures and nonlinearities in the government investment series are captured through the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag, asymmetric impulse responses and variance decomposition estimation techniques.FindingsStudy findings show that positive investment shocks stimulate growth inclusiveness by enabling access to opportunities through job creation and productive employment for the populace; this result is evident for Morocco and Algeria. However, there is a non-negligible evidence that shocks due to decline in the government investment manifest in insufficient capital stocks and limited investment opportunities, impede access to opportunities by the populace, hinder labour employability and make growth less inclusive. Furthermore, all short-run findings corroborate long-run results regarding the reaction of inclusive growth to positive investment shocks with the exclusion of South Africa; which, unlike its long-run finding, shows that shocks due to increases in investment can foster growth inclusiveness. Also, in respect to short-run negative investment shocks, Nigeria is the only country that does not align its long-run findings.Practical implicationsThat public investment shocks make or mar inclusive growth effectiveness shows the need for appropriate fiscal policy consolidation and automatic stabilization guidelines to ensure buffers against shocks and to enhance government investment generation efficiency for a sustainable inclusive growth process that is more participatory in Africa.Originality/valueThis study is the first to accommodate possibilities of shocks in the inclusivity of growth analysis for the five biggest African economies which jointly account for over half of the recorded growth in the continent. As such, there is quantitative evidence that government investment is a potent determinant of growth inclusiveness and it is susceptible to structural changes and time variation of shocks.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document