Money supply in Russia for the period from 2015 to 2019: The exogenous and endogenous approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1338-1351
Author(s):  
O.V. Lunyakov
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Future

Subject. This article explores the process of money supply generation in the Russian economy. Objectives. The article aims to define the direction of causal relationships between monetary indicators and credit in Russia from the perspective of exogenous and endogenous approaches. Methods. For the study, I used VAR models, group cross-correlation, and the Granger causality test. Results. Based on the analysis of the formation of money supply in Russia for the period from 2015 to 2019, the article presents certain formalization of causal relationships between monetary indicators and credit. The results of the study show that the formation of money supply in Russia was rather exogenous. Conclusions and Relevance. The results of the study are aimed at the development of the science of money and formalization of cause-and-effect relationships in the change of money supply based on real statistics. They can be used in the future in terms of clarifying the size of money supply changing.

scholarly journals Linear and Nonlinear Causal Relationships Between International Reserves and Economic Growth: Evidence from India

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-59
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kashif ◽  
Satish Kumar Singh ◽  
S. Thiyagarajan ◽  
Abhishek Maheshwari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Bds Test

This study investigates linear and nonlinear causal relationships between accumulated international reserves (IR) and economic growth (Econ) in the case of India. The present study is carried out using quarterly data ranging from the period of the first quarter of 1985 to the fourth quarter of 2014. The study used econometric tools such as the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the linear Granger causality test, Johansen’s cointegration test, the Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (BDS) test and the nonlinear Granger causality test developed by Hiemstra and Jones. The study establishes that there exists a bidirectional linear causality. The Hiemstra and Jones test reveals a bidirectional nonlinear causal relationship between the variables. In light of these results, the study suggests that reserves accumulation can be implemented in India provided that excess of reserves are invested in alternative sources such as economic infrastructure projects and regional infrastructure development.

scholarly journals The Robust Causal Relationships Among Domestic Tourism Demand, Carbon Emissions, and Economic Growth in China

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402110544
Author(s):  
Yonglian Wang ◽  
Lijun Wang ◽  
Han Liu ◽  
Yongjing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
Tourism Revenue

Green and low-carbon development has become a compelling trend of our time. To formulate policies for development and also reduction of carbon emissions, quantifying the trend of tourism in green sustainable development is an essential issue for China, which is undergoing an economic transformation. This study first measured China’s domestic tourism carbon emissions through a bottom-up approach and then used the robust Granger causality test on annual data from 1993 to 2019 to investigate the relationships among China’s domestic tourism revenue, carbon emissions, and economic growth. The empirical results show that: (1) Carbon emissions of the domestic tourism industry are growing steadily, and the carbon emissions of the transportation industry determine the trend of the total carbon emissions of the domestic tourism industry, (2) long-term equilibrium relationships exist among China’s domestic tourism, carbon emissions, and economic growth, and (3) bidirectional causal relationships among economic growth, carbon emissions, and domestic tourism revenue have been detected with the robust Granger causality test, and the time-varying causal relationships may change markedly in these times of significant events and policy changes. Therefore, policymakers should coordinate the relationships among domestic tourism revenue, carbon emissions, and economic growth, in an effort to promote the development of sustainable tourism in China.

scholarly journals Examining the Causal Relationship between Private Sector Credit Extended and Economic Growth in Namibia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 23-29
Author(s):  
Andreas . ◽  
J P S Sheefeni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Lending Rates

The paper examined causality between Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE) and Economic growth using quarterly data for the period 2000:Q1-2017:Q4, in Namibia. The variables employed were Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Private Sector Credit Extended, Broad Money Supply (M2) and lending rates. The study tested for stationarity in order to determine the order of integration. Furthermore, a co-integration test was conducted on different sets of variables to establish the long run relationship. Granger causality test was also conducted to establish the direction of the relationships between the variables. The results for the stationarity test showed a combination of different orders of integration. The co-integration test revealed a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The Granger causality test results revealed one-directional causality running from PSCE to GDP. Therefore, one can conclude that that change in private sector credit extended can help predict economic growth.

scholarly journals Kausalitas Ekspor Indonesia ke Tiongkok dengan Inflasi Indonesia, Suku Bunga Dasar Tiongkok, dan Nilai Tukar Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-482
Author(s):  
Teddy Aldwin Leonard
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengetahui hubungan kausalitas antara total nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Tiongkok dengan tingkat suku bunga Tiongkok, tingkat inflasi Indonesia, dan nilai tukar Rupiah Indonesia terhadap Yuan China. Penelitian ini menggunakan uji kausalitas granger dengan variabel total nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Tiongkok, tingkat inflasi Indonesia, tingkat suku bunga dasar Tiongkok, dan nilai tukar Rupiah Indonesia terhadap Yuan China untuk melihat hubungan kausalitas antar variabel. Hasil uji kausalitas granger menunjukkan hasil bahwa total nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Tiongkok memiliki hubungan satu arah dengan variabel tingkat suku bunga Tiongkok dan variabel nilai tukar Rupiah Indonesia terhadap Yuan China, namun tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas dengan variabel tingkat inflasi Indonesia. Hubungan satu arah antara total nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Tiongkok dengan tingkat suku bunga Tiongkok adalah total nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Tiongkok menyebabkan perubahan tingkat suku bunga Tiongkok, sedangkan hubungan satu arah antara total nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Tiongkok dengan nilai tukar Rupiah Indonesia terhadap Yuan China adalah nilai tukar Rupiah Indonesia terhadap Yuan China menyebabkan perubahan total nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Tiongkok. The purpose of this study is to know the causality relationship between the total value of Indonesia's exports to Tiongkok with Tiongkok's interest rate, the inflation rate of Indonesia, and the exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah against the Yuan China. This study uses granger causality test with total variable of Indonesian export value to Tiongkok, Indonesia inflation rate, interest rate of Tiongkok, and Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate to Yuan China to see the relation of causality among variables. Granger causality test results show that the total value of Indonesia's export to Tiongkok has unidirectional relationship with variable of Tiongkok interest rate and variable of Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate to Yuan China, but there is no causality relationship with Indonesian inflation rate variable. The unidirectional relationship between the total value of Indonesia's exports to Tiongkok and the Tiongkok interest rate is the total value of Indonesia's exports to Tiongkok causing a change in the Tiongkok interest rate, while the unidirectional relationship between the total value of Indonesia's exports to Tiongkok and the Indonesian rupiah against the Yuan China is the value The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate against the Yuan China led to a change in the total value of Indonesia's exports to Tiongkok

scholarly journals Public Debt of Himachal Pradesh: A Granger Causality Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar Pushap
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Himachal Pradesh ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Tools And Techniques

The present study makes an attempt to analyse the debt position of Himachal Pradesh and discusses various issues impinging upon its growth and structure. Main objective of the study is to examine the causal relationship between public debt and financial indicators of Himachal Pradesh, i.e. economic growth (in terms of GSDP), public expenditure, revenue receipts, grant in aid and repayment of old debt. For the analysis, present study covers a period of 37 years i.e. from 1980-81 to 2016-17. Various statistical tools and techniques such as exponential growth rate, granger causality test and multiple regression have been used to carry out the analysis. Test results indicate uni-directional causality in many of the cases. Economic growth (in terms of GSDP), public expenditure, revenue receipts and grant in aid do Granger cause public debt. However, public debt does not Granger cause economic growth (in terms of GSDP), public expenditure, revenue receipts and grant in aid. Analysis also revealed the existence of feedback effect in case of causality between repayment of old debt and public debt. Lastly, economic growth (in terms of GSDP), public expenditure, grant in aid and repayment of old debt appeared as positive determinants of public debt however, revenue receipts stood as a negative determinant of public debt in Himachal Pradesh.

scholarly journals Coordination or Dominance of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Emad Omar Elhendawy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Third ◽  
Relationship Of

This study investigates to what extent of coordination between the fiscal and monetary policies in Egypt in the period 1980-2017, it has been adopted in its methodology on the vector error correction and Granger causality test. It concludes that there is a significant relation between money supply and budget deficit on one hand and inflation on the other hand, and that fiscal policy is dominant in monetary policy, as a change of 10% of the budget deficit results in an increase in the inflation rate of 8.1%. As for the Granger causality test. Thus stresses the existence of causal relationship to one direction of inflation against both the budget deficit and the money supply, which affects the budget deficit in the second slowdown. Then it feeds the budget deficit and inflation in the third year, which in turn feeds the budget deficit in the fourth year and the causal relationship between inflation and money supply has concluded that there is a one-way causal relationship of money supply to inflation after four slows and then inflation affects the money supply from the fifth to the tenth slowdown. As for the relationship of the budget deficit to money supply, there may be a one-way causal relationship between the budget deficit and the money supply from the second to the tenth year, except the third year, which also confirms the dominance of fiscal policy on monetary policy in Egypt in the period under consideration.

scholarly journals Modelling Technological Progress Evaluation: Case of Lithuanian Manufacturing Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Mantas Markauskas ◽  
Asta Baliute
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Technological Spillover ◽  
Error Terms

The goal for this research is to build a framework for analysis of technological spillover effect between sectors in Lithuanian manufacturing industry and assess whether predictors of the created model closely follow dynamic fluctuations of technological progress assessed values. Analysis of academic literature suggested using Granger causality test and vector autoregression (VAR) model to analyze intersectoral technological progress spillover effect in any manufacturing industry. Granger causality test can suggest a potential relationship between technological progress values of particular sectors in manufacturing industry while VAR model can define the exact form and extent of spillover effect. VAR models identify presence of intersectoral technological spillover effect in case of 15 out of 18 sectors in Lithuanian manufacturing industry. In case of a few sectors error terms of VAR models are not stationary suggesting that additional exogenous variables need to be included to increase accuracy of estimated coefficients before these models can be used in further analysis. After minor changes presented VAR models can be used for sensitivity analysis analyzing how changes in different sectoral level parameters affect economic development of manufacturing industry as a whole.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Asian-African Conference Countries, 2000-2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 09-16
Author(s):  
Malik Cahyadin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Test Results ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Causality Test

Objective - This study analyses the relationship between FDI, TO, GE and EG based on data collected from 79 member countries of the AAC. Today, the AAC has becomes an urgent forum for member countries as it strives to manifest the economic development and prosperity of Asian and African countries. Methodology/Technique - This study uses correlation and the Granger Causality test to analyse data which were extracted from the World Bank database during the period of between 2000– 2014. Findings - The test results showed that the correlation of FDI, TO, GE may be correlated weakly, moderately, and strongly against EG. However, the Granger Causality test results indicated that not all variables have causality. In that regard, member countries of the AAC should pay more attention towards promoting economic growth through FDI, TO and GE. Novelty - The findings of this study can be used by policy makers and economists in the respective member countries of the AAC to design an economic strategy that encourages domestic economic growth. Type of Paper: Empirical/Review Keywords: Macroeconomy, AAC, Correlation, Causality test, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, Government Expenditure, Economic Growth.

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