FLOOD DAMAGE FUNCTIONS IN THE VRBAS RIVER BASIN

This study aims to evaluate the change in flood inundation in the Chitose River basin (CRB), a tributary of the Ishikari River, considering the extreme rainfall impacts and topographic vulnerability. The changing impacts were assessed using a large-ensemble rainfall dataset with a high resolution of 5 km (d4PDF) as input data for the rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) model. Additionally, the prediction of time differences between the peak discharge in the Chitose River and peak water levels at the confluence point intersecting the Ishikari River were improved compared to the previous study. Results indicate that due to climatic changes, extreme river floods are expected to increase by 21–24% in the Ishikari River basin (IRB), while flood inundation is expected to be severe and higher in the CRB, with increases of 24.5, 46.5, and 13.8% for the inundation area, inundation volume, and peak inundation depth, respectively. Flood inundation is likely to occur in the CRB downstream area with a frequency of 90–100%. Additionally, the inundation duration is expected to increase by 5–10 h here. Moreover, the short time difference (0–10 h) is predicted to increase significantly in the CRB. This study provides useful information for policymakers to mitigate flood damage in vulnerable areas.

Download Full-text

Identification of Flood-prone Areas using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS, the Case of Ciberang River Basin, Lebak District of Banten Province

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/930/1/012082 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 930 (1) ◽

pp. 012082

Author(s):

Ynaotou ◽

R Jayadi ◽

A P Rahardjo ◽

D A Puspitosari

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Human Life ◽

Control Point ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Level Gauge ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

Channel Routing ◽

Flood Prediction ◽

Discharge Data ◽

Flood Prone Areas

Abstract It is common practice that flood hydrograph simulations help to provide better flood prediction and flood damage reduction planning. These efforts require information on flood-prone areas identification from the hydrological and hydraulic analysis results. Historically, the Ciberang River Basin has experienced floods. Those floods cause the loss of human life and damage some houses along the river’s channels, especially in Lebak District, Banten Province, Indonesia. The main objective of this study is to identify flood-prone areas based on the simulation result of a hydrologic and hydraulic model of catchment response due to several extreme rainfall events using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software. Rainfall and discharge data measured at the Ciberang-Sabagi water level gauge on 10 January 2013 were used to calibrate hydrological watershed parameters. The hydraulics channel routing is started from the planned location of the Sabo dam to the downstream control point. The next stage was the simulation of rainfall-runoff transformation and 1D unsteady flow channel routing for the 2, 5, and 10-years floods return periods. The main result of this study is a flood hazards map that shows the spatial distribution of the area and inundation depth for each return period of the flood.

Download Full-text

Uncertainties in Coastal Flood Risk Assessments in Small Island Developing States

10.5194/nhess-2019-392 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Matteo U. Parodi ◽

Alessio Giardino ◽

Ap van Dongeren ◽

Stuart G. Pearson ◽

Jeremy D. Bricker ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Input Data ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Small Island ◽

Small Island Developing States ◽

Damage Functions ◽

Current Time ◽

Coastal Flood ◽

Coastal Flood Risk ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Considering the likely increase of coastal flooding in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), coastal managers at the local and global level have been developing initiatives aimed at implementing Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures and adapting to climate change. Developing science-based adaptation policies requires accurate coastal flood risk (CFR) assessments, which are often subject to the scarcity of sufficiently accurate input data for insular states. We analysed the impact of uncertain inputs on coastal flood damage estimates, considering: (i) significant wave height, (ii) storm surge level and (iii) sea level rise (SLR) contributions to extreme sea levels, as well as the error-driven uncertainty in (iv) bathymetric and (v) topographic datasets, (vi) damage models and (vii) socioeconomic changes. The methodology was tested through a sensitivity analysis using an ensemble of hydrodynamic models (XBeach and SFINCS) coupled with an impact model (Delft-FIAT) for a case study at the islands of São Tomé and Príncipe. Model results indicate that for the current time horizon, depth damage functions (DDF) and digital elevation model (DEM) dominate the overall damage estimation uncertainty. We find that, when introducing climate and socioeconomic uncertainties to the analysis, SLR projections become the most relevant input for the year 2100 (followed by DEM and DDF). In general, the scarcity of reliable input data leads to considerable predictive error in CFR assessments in SIDS. The findings of this research can help to prioritise the allocation of limited resources towards the acquisitions of the most relevant input data for reliable impact estimation.

Download Full-text

Estimation of an absolute flood damage curve based on an Austrian case study under a dam breach scenario

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-10-881-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 881-894 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

F. Prettenthaler ◽

P. Amrusch ◽

C. Habsburg-Lothringen

Keyword(s):

Future Development ◽

Damage Assessment ◽

Field Data ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Damage Function ◽

Damage Potential ◽

Dam Breach ◽

Damage Functions ◽

Austrian Case

Abstract. To date, in Austria no empirical assessment of absolute damage curves has been realized on the basis of detailed information on flooded buildings due to a dam breach, presumably because of the lack of data. This paper tries to fill this gap by estimating an absolute flood-damage curve, based on data of a recent flood event in Austria in 2006. First, a concise analysis of the case study area is conducted, i.e., the maximum damage potential is identified by using raster-based GIS. Thereafter, previous literature findings on existing flood-damage functions are considered in order to determine a volume-water damage function that can be used for further flood damage assessment. Finally, the flood damage function is cross validated and applied in prediction of damage potential in the study area. For future development of the estimated flood damage curve, and to aid more general use, we propose verification against field data on damage caused by natural waves in rivers.

Download Full-text

DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD DAMAGE FUNCTIONS BASED ON INSURANCE LOSS DUE TO 2015 KANTO-TOHOKU HEAVY RAINFALL

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) ◽

10.2208/jscejhe.73.i_1279 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 73 (4) ◽

pp. I_1279-I_1284

Author(s):

Rikito HISAMATSU ◽

Ken KAWABE ◽

Yusuke MIZUNO ◽

Yoshinobu SHINOZUKA ◽

Kei HORIE

Keyword(s):

Heavy Rainfall ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Damage Functions

Download Full-text

Assessment of Flood Hazard and Agriculture Damage Under Climate Change in the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal

International Journal of Environment ◽

10.3126/ije.v8i2.25508 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 55-69 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Badri Bhakta Shrestha

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Damage Assessment ◽

Growth Stage ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Flood Risk Management ◽

Flood Inundation ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

Bagmati River

Assessment of flood hazard and damage is a prerequisite for flood risk management in the river basins. The mitigation plans for flood risk management are mostly evaluated in quantified terms as it is important in decision making process. Therefore, analysis of flood hazards and quantitative assessment of potential flood damage is very essential for mitigating and managing flood risk. This study focused on assessment of flood hazard and quantitative agricultural damage in the Bagmati River basin including Lal Bakaiya River basin of Nepal under climate change conditions. Flood hazards were simulated using Rainfall Runoff Inundation (RRI) model. MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation outputs of present and future climate scenarios were used to simulate flood hazards, flood inundation depth, and duration. Flood damage was assessed in the agricultural sector, focusing on flood damage to rice crops. The flood damage assessment was conducted by defining flood damage to rice crops as a function of flood depth, duration, and growth stage of rice plants and using depth-duration-damage function curves for each growth stage of rice plants. The hazard simulation and damage assessment were conducted for 50- and 100-year return period cases. The results show that flood inundation area and agricultural damage area may increase in the future by 41.09 % and 39.05 % in the case of 50-year flood, while 44.98 % and 40.76 % in the case of 100-year flood. The sensitivity to changes in flood extent area and damage with the intensity of return period was also analyzed.

Download Full-text

Application of geographic weighted regression to establish flood-damage functions reflecting spatial variation

Water SA ◽

10.4314/wsa.v34i2.183641 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 34 (2) ◽

pp. 209 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Ling-Fang Chang ◽

Chun-Hung Lin ◽

Ming-Daw Su

Keyword(s):

Spatial Variation ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Weighted Regression ◽

Damage Functions ◽

Geographic Weighted Regression

Download Full-text

Tradeoffs in water extremes: combining hydraulic and economic modeling to assess the economic and financial viability of de Lastras de Cuéllar Dam, Spain

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8934 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Héctor González López ◽

C. Dionisio Pérez-Blanco ◽

Laura Gil-García

Keyword(s):

Value Added ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Economic Modeling ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Regulated River ◽

Damage Functions ◽

Flood Depth ◽

Operation Rules ◽

Floods And Droughts

AbstractGrowing population and water demand (e.g for irrigation, water supply) and the vagaries of climate, now aggravated due to climate change, intensify societal exposure to water extremes and the economic and environmental impact of floods and droughts in Mediterranean basins. The Douro River Basin Authority (DRBA) in central Spain is assessing whether to build a dam in the Cega Catchment (Spain) with the twofold objective of substituting irrigation withdrawals from overallocated aquifers with relatively more abundant surface water, and of mitigating flood damage in the middle and lower stretches of the Cega River -the only non-regulated river in the DRB. This paper assesses and compares the costs of two alternative adaptation strategies to growing scarcity and more frequent and intense water extremes, namely dam construction v. the statu quo strategy where no dam is built. To this end, a Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programing (PMAUP) that mimics farmer&#180;s behavior and responses is used to assess the impacts on agricultural employment and gross value added of selected strategies in the irrigation sector; while the hydrologic model River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) is used to simulate the economic impact of flood events considering standard return periods, based on the global flood depth-damage functions developed by Huizinga et&#160;al. (2017). Both models are used to run 900 simulations reproducing alternative socioeconomic and climatic/hydrologic scenarios. The result is a database representing multiple plausible futures, which is used to identify vulnerabilities of proposed adaptation strategies and potential tradeoffs between responses -notably those referring to the design and operation rules of the dam, and the potential impact of floods and droughts. This methodology and the resultant database are combined with experts&#8217; knowledge through robust decision-making tools to identify the preferred (i.e. robust) adaptation policy.

Download Full-text

How reliable are projections of future flood damage?

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-11-3293-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 3293-3306 ◽

Cited By ~ 59

Author(s):

P. Bubeck ◽

H. de Moel ◽

L. M. Bouwer ◽

J. C. J. H. Aerts

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Flood Risk Management ◽

Future Research ◽

River Rhine ◽

Damage Functions ◽

Damage Modelling ◽

Asset Values ◽

Over Time ◽

Modelling Approaches

Abstract. Flood damage modelling is an important component in flood risk management, and several studies have investigated the possible range of flood damage in the coming decades. Generally, flood damage assessments are still characterized by considerable uncertainties in stage-damage functions and methodological differences in estimating exposed asset values. The high variance that is commonly associated with absolute flood damage assessments is the reason for the present study that investigates the reliability of estimates of relative changes in the development of potential flood damage. While studies that estimate (relative) changes in flood damage over time usually address uncertainties resulting from different projections (e.g. land-use characteristics), the influence of different flood damage modelling approaches on estimates of relative changes in the development of flood damage is largely unknown. In this paper, we evaluate the reliability of estimates of relative changes in flood damage along the river Rhine between 1990 and 2030 in terms of different flood-damage modelling approaches. The results show that relative estimates of flood damage developments differ by a factor of 1.4. These variations, which result from the application of different modelling approaches, are considerably smaller than differences between the approaches in terms of absolute damage estimates (by a factor of 3.5 to 3.8), or than differences resulting from land-use projections (by a factor of 3). The differences that exist when estimating relative changes principally depend on the differences in damage functions. In order to improve the reliability of relative estimates of changes in the development of potential flood damage, future research should focus on reducing the uncertainties related to damage functions.

Download Full-text