The Impact Of Unemployment And Interest Rate On Inflation In Sri Lanka

GIS Business ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 54-65
Author(s):  
S. Selvanayagam ◽  
A.M. M. Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Three major economic indicators such as Inflation, unemployment and interest rate have an important role in an economy in terms of sustainable development. The long-term progress of the Sri Lankan economy is destabilized. The linkage or the impact among these variables is very important for developing country such as Sri Lanka to overcome the destabilized hurdles. The study intends to investigate the impact of unemployment and interest rate on inflation in Sri Lanka. Also, this study was analyzed the short and long run relationship among the variables. Phillip’s relationship between the variables inflation and unemployment also was discussed in details. Fifty-three years of annual data for period of 1953- 2015 of the variables inflation, unemployment, interest rate, money supply (M2) and government expenditure used for the analysis. Parametric and non-parametric approaches have been employed in this study. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with co-integration technique has been employed to find the short and long run relationship of the variable. The statistical package EViews 9 and Microsoft excel were used for the analysis. The study reveals that unemployment is negatively impact on inflation in short and long run in Sri Lanka, which is statistically significance. Further, the study revealed that the Phillip’s relationship between inflation and unemployment exist in Sri Lankan economy. The interest rate is also negatively impact on inflation in short run and positively impact in long run. Results are statistically significance at 5% confidence level and theoretically expected. This study recommends that the relationship between the variables should be noted and utilized the Engine of growth concept in order to achieve sustainable development of Sri Lanka. Job opportunities to be extended further more. Further, the study suggests that using quarterly data to analysis this kind of time series will reflect relationship accurate.

scholarly journals The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Industrial Sector Growth: Evidence from Sri Lanka

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 88 ◽  
Author(s):  
NPG Samantha ◽  
Haiyun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Advanced Technology ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government

The development of the industrial sector stimulates economic growth and development by reducing poverty and regional disparity, increasing export income, generating quality employment, as well as developing technological capabilities and productive capacities. It has been more than four decades since removing trade-related barriers, and tax incentives liberalized the Sri Lankan economy offered to foreign investors to attract FDI and promote the industrial sector. Hence, the objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between inward FDI and industrial sector performance of Sri Lanka at the aggregate level for the period 1980-2016. We use the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to identify the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics of the selected variables. ARDL bounds test verifies the existence of co-integration among the selected variables. The study fails to find a significant relationship between FDI and industrial sector growth of Sri Lanka in the long run as well as in the short run. The attraction of vertically integrated FDI that consists with advanced technology and value-added production is one of the solutions for overcoming the issue of low technology and knowledge of Sri Lankan industrial sector. Sri Lankan FDI strategy associated with industrial sector should consider the pull and push factors related to recipient and source country respectively. To promote the industrial sector via FDI, the government policy should focus on attracting more FDI that could be channeled into those sectors that would contribute to national competitiveness.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Inflation in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. p29
Author(s):  
Chioma Chidinma George-Anokwuru ◽  
Bosco Itoro Ekpenyong
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

The impact of government spending on Nigeria’s inflation levels between 1999 and 2019 was x-rayed in this paper. The data for the study were sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used as the main analytical tool. A long-run relationship among this study’s variables was realized, using the ARDL Bounds test. The result also revealed a positive but insignificant relationship between government expenditure and inflation rate in the short-run. Moreover, in the long-run, government expenditure has negative and is statistically significant inflation rate. Money supply has a negative and is statistically insignificant with inflation rate in the short-run. In the long-run, money supply has a positive and significant relationship with inflation rate. Gross domestic product was negatively related to inflation rate in both short-run and long-run. Moreover, exchange rate affected inflation rate negatively and significantly in the short-run and positively and significantly in the long-run. The increasing demands of the population affected inflation rate positively and significantly in both short-run and long-run. Investment was positively related to inflation rate but not significant in the short-run but the relationship was negative and significant in the long-run. The study therefore recommended among others that government should exercise discretion in spending in order to check inflation rate. This can be done by channeling spending on productive activities that will cushion the effect of inflation rate rather than exacerbate it.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads in Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Kwabena Obeng ◽  
Daniel Sakyi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Interest Rate Spreads ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads in Ghana for the period 1980-2013. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach to cointegration and the error correction model were used for the estimation. Findings The results indicate that exchange rate volatility, fiscal deficit, economic growth, and public sector borrowing from commercial banks, increase interest rate spreads in Ghana in both the long and short run. Institutional quality reduces interest rate spreads in the long run while lending interest rate volatility and monetary policy rate reduce interest rate spreads in the short run. Research limitations/implications The depreciation of the Ghana cedi must be controlled since its volatility increases spreads. There is a need for fiscal discipline since fiscal deficits increase interest rate spreads. Government must reduce its domestic borrowing because the associated crowding-out effect increases interest rate spreads. The central bank must improve its monitoring and regulation of the financial sector in order to reduce spreads. Originality/value The main novelty of the paper (compared to other studies on Ghana) lies on the one hand; analysing macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads and, on the other hand, controlling for the impact of institutional quality on interest rate spreads in Ghana.

Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (1980–2014)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip Akanni Olomola ◽  
Tolulope Temilola Osinubi
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Government Stability ◽  
Short Run

This study analyzed the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey) countries during the period 1980–2014. Annual data covering the period between 1980 and 2014 were used. Data on real gross domestic product (real GDP), labor force, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment (FDI), human capital, and inflation were sourced from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank. Also, data on corruption, government stability, and law and order were obtained from the database of International Country Risk Guide. Panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) regression technique was used to estimate the model. Results showed that TFP growth rate declined on average by 1.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent in Mexico and Turkey, respectively, while Indonesia and Nigeria did not experience productivity growth on the average. Results also showed that in the long run, human capital and government stability had positive and significant effects on TFP, while FDI and corruption had negative but significant effects on TFP. In the short run, there existed a significant negative relationship between TFP and inflation. However, the effects of human capital and corruption on TFP were positive and significant. The study concluded that human capital and corruption were key drivers of TFP in the MINT countries both in the long run and short run.

scholarly journals INFLASI DARI SUDUT PANDANG MONETER DAN FISKAL (STUDI KASUS SUMATERA BARAT)

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Zul Azhar ◽  
Alpon Satrianto ◽  
Nofitasari Nofitasari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of money supply M2, interest rate, government spending and local tax on the inflation in West Sumatera. This type of research is descriptive research and secondary datain the form of time-series from quartely 1 2007 to 2017 quartely 4 using the method of Autoregresive Distributed Lag analysis. The results of this study indicate that money supply in the long run have a significant and positive effect on inflation West Sumatera. In the short run  and long run the interest rate has a significant and positive effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Government spending in the Long run has a significant and negative effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Based on the result of this study can be concluded that there is inflation in West Sumatera is monetery of phenomenon in the long run. 

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Management on the Nigerian Economic Growth: Empirical Validation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-35
Author(s):  
Friday Osaru Ovenseri Ogbomo ◽  
Precious Imuwahen Ajoonu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examined the impact of Exchange Rate Management on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. The study was set to gauge how the management of exchange rate in Nigeria has impacted the economy. The study employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method in its analysis. Co-integration and Error Correction Techniques were used to establish the Short-run and Long-run relationships between economic growth and other relevant economic indicators. The result revealed that exchange rate management proxy by various exchange rates regimes in Nigeria was not germane to economic growth. Rather, government expenditure, inflation rate, money supply and foreign direct investment significantly impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It is against this backdrop that the Nigerian economy must diversify her export base to create room for more inflow of foreign exchange.  

scholarly journals HIGHER EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tariq Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Education And Economic Growth

This paper highlights the role of higher education for the economic growth inPakistan. We explore the impact of increase in enrolment at tertiary level on thegrowth rate of income per worker. Estimating a growth model developed byMankiv et. al. (1992), using the annual data of Pakistan, we find a robustrelationship between higher education and economic growth in the long run. Themodel has also shown that investment in fixed capital has positive impact oneconomic uplift. Applying Johansen’s cointegration test, we show that the longrun elasticity of income with respect to capital stock is different from its share inGDP, and increase in the enrolment per unit of effective worker helps inbolstering economic growth. But, like earlier literature we also find statisticallyinsignificant relationship between higher education and GDP per worker. Thereare some fundamental reasons concerning to the ambiguous impact of investingin human capital on economic growth, particularly in the short run in case ofPakistan. First, the sharp increase in enrollment, recently, has been damaging thequality of education. Second, the unequal distribution of educational services hasheld back the efficiency of public expenditures, particularly before the reformsundertaken by higher education commission. Third, the low private return ofeducation has limited the demand for higher education in Pakistan for almost fiftyyears.

Income inequality and CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from Turkey

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 444-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caner Demir ◽  
Raif Cergibozan ◽  
Adem Gök
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of income inequality on environmental quality in Turkey within the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. In order to observe the short-run and long-run effects of income inequality on environmental quality, an autoregressive distributed lag bounds test on CO2 emission has been employed for the period 1963–2011 of Turkey. The results of the analysis reveal that there is a negative association between CO2 emission level and income inequality, which implies that increasing income inequality reduces environmental degradation in Turkey. Hence, a greater inequality in the society leads to less aggregate consumption in the economy due to lower propensity to emit in the richer households resulting in better environmental quality. The findings confirm an argument in the existing literature, which suggests that for developing countries, until a certain level of development, environmental degradation increases as income inequality in the society decreases. The results also confirm the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis.

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