scholarly journals Implementing Pre-Emptive Managed Retreat: Constraints and Novel Insights

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Lawrence ◽  
Jonathan Boston ◽  
R Bell ◽  
S Olufson ◽  
R Kool ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
First Century ◽  
Current State ◽  
Adaptation Response ◽  
Extreme Flooding ◽  
Protective Structures ◽  
Implementation Gaps ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose of Review: Managed retreat will be inevitable where other adaptation options, such as protective structures or building restrictions, provide only temporary respite or are otherwise uneconomic, technically impractical or both. Here, we focus on the implementation of pre-emptive managed retreat, providing examples of how it can be sequenced, socialised and given the governance enablers necessary for implementation. Recent Findings: Ongoing sea-level rise during the twenty-first century and beyond poses huge adaptation challenges, especially for low-lying coastal and floodplain settlements. Settlements are already functionally disrupted from repetitive non-extreme flooding and research shows that sea-level rise will impact far more people, far sooner than previously thought, as more powerful storms, heavy rainfall and rising groundwater coincide with higher tides. To date, most examples of managed retreat have been post-disaster responses following damage and disruption. Pre-emptive managed retreat, by contrast, has yet to become a well-accepted and widely practised adaptation response. Nevertheless, there are increasing examples of research and practice on how pre-emptive managed retreat can be designed, sequenced and implemented alongside other forms of adaptation within anticipatory forms of governance. Summary: The current state of knowledge about managed retreat is reviewed and critical insights and lessons for governance and policy-making are given. Several novel examples from New Zealand are presented to address some of the implementation gaps. Goals and principles are enunciated to inform long-term adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Implementing Pre-Emptive Managed Retreat: Constraints and Novel Insights

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Lawrence ◽  
Jonathan Boston ◽  
R Bell ◽  
S Olufson ◽  
R Kool ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
First Century ◽  
Current State ◽  
Adaptation Response ◽  
Extreme Flooding ◽  
Protective Structures ◽  
Implementation Gaps ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose of Review: Managed retreat will be inevitable where other adaptation options, such as protective structures or building restrictions, provide only temporary respite or are otherwise uneconomic, technically impractical or both. Here, we focus on the implementation of pre-emptive managed retreat, providing examples of how it can be sequenced, socialised and given the governance enablers necessary for implementation. Recent Findings: Ongoing sea-level rise during the twenty-first century and beyond poses huge adaptation challenges, especially for low-lying coastal and floodplain settlements. Settlements are already functionally disrupted from repetitive non-extreme flooding and research shows that sea-level rise will impact far more people, far sooner than previously thought, as more powerful storms, heavy rainfall and rising groundwater coincide with higher tides. To date, most examples of managed retreat have been post-disaster responses following damage and disruption. Pre-emptive managed retreat, by contrast, has yet to become a well-accepted and widely practised adaptation response. Nevertheless, there are increasing examples of research and practice on how pre-emptive managed retreat can be designed, sequenced and implemented alongside other forms of adaptation within anticipatory forms of governance. Summary: The current state of knowledge about managed retreat is reviewed and critical insights and lessons for governance and policy-making are given. Several novel examples from New Zealand are presented to address some of the implementation gaps. Goals and principles are enunciated to inform long-term adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Coastal subsidence increases vulnerability to sea level rise over twenty first century in Cartagena, Caribbean Colombia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan D. Restrepo-Ángel ◽  
Héctor Mora-Páez ◽  
Freddy Díaz ◽  
Marin Govorcin ◽  
Shimon Wdowinski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Colombian Government ◽  
The Caribbean

AbstractCartagena is subsiding at a higher rate compared to that of global climate-driven sea level rise. We investigate the relative sea level rise (RSLR) and the influence of vertical land movements in Cartagena through the integration of different datasets, including tide gauge records, GPS geodetic subsidence data, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations of vertical motions. Results reveal a long-term rate (> 60 years) of RSLR of 5.98 ± 0.01 mm/yr. The last two decades exhibited an even greater rate of RSLR of 7.02 ± 0.06 mm/yr. GPS subsidence rates range between − 5.71 ± 2.18 and − 2.85 ± 0.84 mm/yr. InSAR data for the 2014–2020 period show cumulative subsidence rates of up to 72.3 mm. We find that geologically induced vertical motions represent 41% of the observed changes in RSLR and that subsidence poses a major threat to Cartagena’s preservation. The geodetic subsidence rates found would imply a further additional RSLR of 83 mm by 2050 and 225 mm by 2100. The Colombian government should plan for the future and serve as an example to similar cities across the Caribbean.

scholarly journals A Holistic Framework for Evaluating Adaptation Approaches to Coastal Hazards and Sea Level Rise: A Case Study from Imperial Beach, California

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1324
Author(s):  
David Revell ◽  
Phil King ◽  
Jeff Giliam ◽  
Juliano Calil ◽  
Sarah Jenkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Public Benefits ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Over Time

Sea level rise increases community risks from erosion, wave flooding, and tides. Current management typically protects existing development and infrastructure with coastal armoring. These practices ignore long-term impacts to public trust coastal recreation and natural ecosystems. This adaptation framework models physical responses to the public beach and private upland for each adaptation strategy over time, linking physical changes in widths to damages, economic costs, and benefits from beach recreation and nature using low-lying Imperial Beach, California, as a case study. Available coastal hazard models identified community vulnerabilities, and local risk communication engagement prioritized five adaptation approaches—armoring, nourishment, living shorelines, groins, and managed retreat. This framework innovates using replacement cost as a proxy for ecosystem services normally not valued and examines a managed retreat policy approach using a public buyout and rent-back option. Specific methods and economic values used in the analysis need more research and innovation, but the framework provides a scalable methodology to guide coastal adaptation planning everywhere. Case study results suggest that coastal armoring provides the least public benefits over time. Living shoreline approaches show greater public benefits, while managed retreat, implemented sooner, provides the best long-term adaptation strategy to protect community identity and public trust resources.

Long-Term Sediment, Carbon, and Nitrogen Accumulation Rates in Coastal Wetlands Impacted by Sea Level Rise

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gillian Gundersen ◽  
D. Reide Corbett ◽  
Austyn Long ◽  
Melinda Martinez ◽  
Marcelo Ardón
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Wetlands ◽  
Nitrogen Accumulation ◽  
Accumulation Rates ◽  
Carbon And Nitrogen ◽  
Sediment Carbon

Long-term legacy of delayed climate mitigation in global glacier response

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabien Maussion ◽  
Quentin Lejeune ◽  
Ben Marzeion ◽  
Matthias Mengel ◽  
David Rounce ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Glacier Change ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Glacier Runoff ◽  
The Impact

<p>Mountain glaciers have a delayed response to climate change and are expected to continue to melt long after greenhouse gas emissions have stopped, with consequences both for sea-level rise and water resources. In this contribution, we use the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to compute global glacier volume and runoff changes until the year 2300 under a suite of stylized greenhouse gas emission characterized by (i) the year at which anthropogenic emissions culminate, (ii) their reduction rates after peak emissions and (iii) whether they lead to a long-term global temperature stabilization or decline. We show that even under scenarios that achieve the Paris Agreement goal of holding global-mean temperature below 2 °C, glacier contribution to sea-level rise will continue well beyond 2100. Because of this delayed response, the year of peak emissions (i.e. the timing of mitigation action) has a stronger influence on mit-term global glacier change than other emission scenario characteristics, while long-term change is dependent on all factors. We also discuss the impact of early climate mitigation on regional glacier change and the consequences for glacier runoff, both short-term (where some basins are expected to experience an increase of glacier runoff) and long-term (where all regions are expecting a net-zero or even negative glacier contribution to total runoff), underlining the importance of mountain glaciers for regional water availability at all timescales.</p>

scholarly journals “We Would Ride Safely in the Harbor of the Future”: Historical Parallels between the Existential Threats of Yellow Fever and Sea Level Rise in New Orleans and Norfolk

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-335
Author(s):  
Morris W. Foster ◽  
Emily E. Steinhilber
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Yellow Fever ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Sanitary Reform ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
And Sea Level

AbstractThe nineteenth-century experiences of yellow fever epidemics in New Orleans and Norfolk present historical parallels for how those cities, and others, are experiencing existential threats from climate change and sea level rise in the twenty-first century. In particular, the nineteenth-century “sanitary reform” movement can be interpreted as a model for challenges facing twenty-first-century “climate resilience” initiatives, including denialism and political obfuscation of scientific debates as well as tensions between short-term profit and the cost of long-term infrastructure investments and between individualism and communitarianism. The history of sanitary reform suggests that, at least in the United States, climate resilience initiatives will advance largely on a regional basis through extended local debates around these and other challenges until resilient infrastructure and practices are taken for granted, much as sanitary waterworks and sewers are today.

scholarly journals Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 203-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Frieler ◽  
M. Mengel ◽  
A. Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Ocean Water ◽  
Additional Mass ◽  
Dynamic Perspective ◽  
Primary Energy Supply ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today, sea level would continue to rise for centuries, with the long-term sea-level commitment of a 2 °C warmer world significantly exceeding 2 m. In view of the potential implications for coastal populations and ecosystems worldwide, we investigate, from an ice-dynamic perspective, the possibility of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet. We find that due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than would be expected from a pure advection with surface velocities. The delay time depends strongly on the distance from the coastline at which the additional mass is placed and less strongly on the rate of sea-level rise that is mitigated. A millennium-scale storage of at least 80 % of the additional ice requires placing it at a distance of at least 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate the potential energy of ocean water to mitigate the currently observed 3 mm yr−1 will exceed 7 % of the current global primary energy supply. At the same time, the approach offers a comprehensive protection for entire coastlines particularly including regions that cannot be protected by dikes.

Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (12) ◽  
pp. 867-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel Schaeffer ◽  
William Hare ◽  
Stefan Rahmstorf ◽  
Martin Vermeer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level

scholarly journals The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 570-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jochen Hinkel ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
Sally Brown ◽  
Jose A. Jiménez ◽  
Daniel Lincke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Simulating barrier island response to sea level rise with the barrier island and inlet environment (BRIE) model v1.0

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 4013-4030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaap H. Nienhuis ◽  
Jorge Lorenzo-Trueba
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Barrier Island ◽  
Barrier Islands ◽  
Emergent Behavior ◽  
Tidal Inlets ◽  
Rise Rate ◽  
Ecological Importance ◽  
Alongshore Sediment Transport

Abstract. Barrier islands are low-lying coastal landforms vulnerable to inundation and erosion by sea level rise. Despite their socioeconomic and ecological importance, their future morphodynamic response to sea level rise or other hazards is poorly understood. To tackle this knowledge gap, we outline and describe the BarrieR Inlet Environment (BRIE) model that can simulate long-term barrier morphodynamics. In addition to existing overwash and shoreface formulations, BRIE accounts for alongshore sediment transport, inlet dynamics, and flood–tidal delta deposition along barrier islands. Inlets within BRIE can open, close, migrate, merge with other inlets, and build flood–tidal delta deposits. Long-term simulations reveal complex emergent behavior of tidal inlets resulting from interactions with sea level rise and overwash. BRIE also includes a stratigraphic module, which demonstrates that barrier dynamics under constant sea level rise rates can result in stratigraphic profiles composed of inlet fill, flood–tidal delta, and overwash deposits. In general, the BRIE model represents a process-based exploratory view of barrier island morphodynamics that can be used to investigate long-term risks of flooding and erosion in barrier environments. For example, BRIE can simulate barrier island drowning in cases in which the imposed sea level rise rate is faster than the morphodynamic response of the barrier island.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document